Posted on 07/27/2018 5:17:18 PM PDT by Magnatron
In a special preview for Axios readers, here's a new analysis by David Wasserman of Cook Political Report, unpacking the GOP's daunting math:
"With 102 days to go, Democrats remain substantial favorites for House control. A big reason: Republicans are defending 42 open or vacant seats, a record since at least 1930." (After the March victory by Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania, Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take the House).
"Of Republicans' 42 incumbent-less seats, eight are in districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and an additional 13 are in districts where President Trump received less than 55 percent."
Killer stat: "[S]ince 1992, in situations when a president's party was stuck defending an open seat two years after the president failed to carry it, that party has batted zero for 23 keeping it in their column."
"Fundraising deficits are a growing GOP problem":
"[I]n 20 of the 42 seats, the leading Democrat raised more than the leading Republican between April and June, including in seven of eight Clinton-carried districts (Rep. Dave Reichert's open WA-08 was the only exception) and 13 of 34 Trump-carried seats."
David's ratings for the 42 Republican open seats: 3 Likely D ... 5 Lean D ... 4 Tossup ... 7 Lean R ... 4 Likely R ... 19 Solid R.
>>How is this “Daunting Math”?
Because even with excessive D+n polling, it is “daunting” to make a map that looks good for Dems.
“I will never understand why we, for most of whom politics is a side interest, are so much better at it than these highly-paid consultants that claim it as their livelihood.”
Because we have not been bought off, purchased.
Trump is the only thing that’s working in politics these days. If the GOP would get behind Trump they’d win in a cakewalk.
It’s the way they operate their little echo chamber. One outfit, say Cook Political Report or Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball... will come up with numbers for these races that, if accurate, would be trouble for Republicans. They don’t have to be accurate; they just have to depress GOP voters and supporters.
Cook will publish his story, Sabato will pick it up, so will Politico and WaPo, then before you know it, it’s Gospel. Gop has a tendency to fall for this; I hope they don’t in ‘18. Consider: Maxine Waters would be chair of an oversight committee. So, Repubs, even if it’s a RINO, you hae to vote to keep R control of 2019-2020 will show POTUS blocked at every turn; all committee investigations into the FBI/DOJ, etc. will cease, and there will be impeachment hearings.
Um 3+5+4=12 Common core strike again.
We may disagree with predictions, but aren’t the stats from the past accurate?
Wasserman’s ratings are based on a methodology that considers the results in the last election, by precinct, polls to the extent they are available, other trends, and a turnout model.
That provides a reasonable though not completely predictive outcome. Last election, that model did not work well. But, all of the other prediction are just nonsense fillers that are cherry picked from lists of statistical noise about generalities from previous elections. It doesn’t mean much.
While the media always point out that the Democrats have the advantage because of the large numbers of Republican open seats, they almost never point out that the economy is booming, and Trump has a remarkable record of delivering his campaign promises. Those factors favor the Republicans, Finally, in midterm elections, turnout has historically favored Republicans because Republicans tend to vote at every election and Democrats only vote in Presidential elections and then only when there is a marque candidate like Obama or Clinton. Most Senate and House candidates are not celebrities. Democrats will have a problem with turnout.
I’ve yet to see anything credible from the Nazi propagandists at Axios.
It is also assuming that the Rats don’t lose a single seat they currently hold.
Yeah, “non-partisan” Cook, lol. Thanks.
I for one don't count my chickens before they hatch.
But the stats for past House races do you dispute?
This year aren’t the districts which are open GOP seats at risk especially if HRC carried them?
Also seats at risk in CA, PA, NJ, MN, NY
Where in the House will GOP pick up seats?
Math is hard.
Only ¡YEB! can beat Hillary Clinton.
Donald Trump will never be the Republican nominee.
The only retain the map looks bad for Republicans is that the Democrats have been doing historically poorly for the last ten years.
More Democrats have lost more seats through the last three election cycles at all levels of government than at any time in history.
Baris of PPD tells me that, as in 2016, the genetics are too high for Ds.
He has 30 tossups. That said, my guys in OH say “no OH Republican is in trouble.” That reduces the number to 28.
Top AZ GOP source tells me we will hold McSally’s seat, but thinks AZ1 AND Sinema’s seats are “gettable.” So take one off first McSally, or 27. There are 2 seats in MN that Rs think they can flip. Make it 25. Dino Rossi, I’m told, will hold Reichart’s seat. 24. In CA49 the R is +3 in a district Issa won by 1. That’s 23. But Rohrabacher’s seat CA48 is thought to eventually swing in R favor. 22.
That’s just 4 states. The Dems will be hard pressed to win.Trump is going on the campaign trail 7 days a week & dumped $60 m in House & Senate races from his OWN war chest. So much for being outspent.
Finally, though it was somewhat of a secret, the GOP tested its massive GOTV machinery over 4th of July and will roll out a massive campaign in August.
The LEFT is a very strong proponent of fuzzy math.
they don’t need to pick up any- just hold 22...
That is great news. I never thought that Trump would leave an election to chance but would have people in the field. Have ICE at the polls and watch the Demons howl.
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