Posted on 07/26/2018 11:14:43 AM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
Just a few months ago Democrats envisioned a “Blue Wave,” gaining 40-50 seats. Today their expectation have been tempered – and for good reason. Since 1946, Democrats have gained an average of 21 seats in the midterms when the president is a Republican. That gain would not be enough for a majority, where the Democrats need to gain 25 seats.
Using election data since 1946, on average the president’s party (Republican or Democratic) loses 21 seats in the first midterm election. But that average masks big swings, from a 63-seat loss in 2010 to an 8-seat gain in 2002. The median loss is just 15 seats. The current partisan makeup is 236-193 with 6 vacancies. RealClearPolitics puts Republicans as favorites in 202 seats, Democrats in 199 seats with 24 tossups.
One thing is for certain, the president’s party struggles in midterm elections because that’s how politics works. Presidents get elected by making a lot of promises to get elected. The result? The president’s voters can never be fully satisfied less than two years into a given presidency. Some of those voters drop out, while the opposition becomes united, not in policy preferences, but just in opposition to the president they didn’t vote for.
Average gains and losses are interesting, but they don’t tell the whole story. For one thing, in three of nine first midterms the president’s party was in the minority. Simply put: The fewer seats you have, the fewer you can lose. The average loss for the president’s party in the majority is 24 seats. However, on two occasions the president benefited from a major foreign policy bump. The successful resolution of the Cuban missile crisis saw President Kennedy’s approval rating jump into the 70s, dampening Democratic losses to merely 4 seats.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
uneducated whites give a crap about tariffs? Please.
I hear socialist Ocasio Cortez is helping out Democrats bigtime-——
She’s planning to run realtime ads on the scene in Venezuela———videoing herself handing out free toilet tissue to starving Venezuelans.
My intuition says the GOP is going to crush it this coming November. While my instinct is not quite as strong it was in 2016 that Trump would win (thereby impelling me to bet big bucks on predictit.com, which had stupid odds that Trump was going to lose), I believe the tea leaves mostly point to a historically unlikely midterm win by the party in power, namely the GOP in this case.
I see at least thirty-five reasons why the GOP is favored over the Democrats for the 2018 midterm elections:
1. President Trump and the GOP waved their magic wands (as Obama put it during the 2016 election) and produced a booming economy in less than two years in power. This Trump/GOP economy is one of the best economies since WWII, and one that quickly materialized, even after decades of chronic under-performance and low-level recession during the lackluster Bush/Obama decades. Voters vote their pocketbooks more than any other issues by far, and a booming economy is always very bad news for the party that’s out of power.
2. The Trump/GOP major tax reform has benefited regular folks and super-charged the economy, and most of whose benefits have yet to even arrive, e.g., hundreds of billions of repatriated profits still are arriving onto our shores from the rest of the world and have yet to be invested into domestic manufacturing infrastructure.
3. President Trump and the GOP Congress eliminated the vile and counterproductive Obamacare mandate, which required people to pay a fine for the privilege of not buying medical insurance.
4. President Trump’s North Korean denuclearization efforts are headed in the right direction so far, e.g., North Korean rocket engine testing infrastructure is currently being dismantled.
5. President Trump has kept his campaign promises on dozens of issues, including withdrawing from TPP, withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement nonsense, and halting payment of U.S. foreign aid to U.S. enemies like Palestinian terrorists. Implementing such a massive number of campaign promises and without backtracking or equivocating is essentially unprecedented in U.S. history. It’s extremely rare for any politician to keep their campaign promises (especially Republicans), and keeping campaign promises inspires confidence in the integrity of those who keep their promises.
6. President Trump instructed his military to QUICKLY destroy ISIS, but has otherwise kept us out of foreign wars, as well as fruitless and ridiculously expensive “nation building” exercises in third world countries that can barely keep the power on and the water running.
7. President Trump’s policies have resulted in deporting MS-13 and other drug-dealing gang-members and many other criminal illegal aliens.
8. President Trump has implacably fought back against the leftist fake stream media, driving them to such extremes of rage that they have now essentially destroyed themselves for all time by losing credibility with the regular folks and losing their ability to convince people of things that are not true. The term “fake news” has now forever entered the lexicon of American politics.
9. President Trump has exposed the Bushite/GOPe/RINO/Globalist/anti-Trumper pretend-”conservatives” as being toadies of the oligarchs and plutocrats and NOT the champions of the people they claimed they were, thus destroying the non-Democrat half of the “Uniparty”, which has been the REAL party of the wildly wealthy.
10. In less than two years, President Trump’s economic policies have resulted in the lowest black unemployment rate in history, the lowest Hispanic unemployment rate in history, and the highest female wages in history, and polls have shown significant increase of support for Trump amongst these groups of voters, groups who are normally the bedrock of Democrat support.
11. In less than two years, President Trump’s and the Congressional GOP’s economic policies have produced the highest stock market in history.
12. President Trump has forced NATO nations to pay billions more of their agreed-upon share of expenses, with more billions to come.
13. President Trump’s temporary punitive tariffs have panicked the EU into complete capitulation on the issue of tariff-free fair trade, with Canada and China soon to follow. Mexico is not far behind with U.S. threats of withdrawing from NAFTA all together if Mexico doesn’t cooperate. At this point, our foreign trading partners know for a fact that President Trump is serious about forcing fair trade and that he will not hesitate to take whatever actions are necessary to bring that about, even if some of those actions might temporarily be antithetical to some segments of the U.S. economy.
14. President Trump and the GOP Congress have implemented massive deregulation of industry.
15. CAFE auto fleet mileage standards that are extremely harmful to our auto industry are on the verge of being rolled back by President Trump’s EPA.
16. President Trump’s EPA has eliminated scientifically-baseless carbon regulations that have pointlessly stifled U.S. energy production and thereby raised the cost of living for everyone in the U.S.
17. President Trump and the GOP Senate have already installed one strict Constitutionalist to the U.S. Supreme Court, with a second strict Constitutionalist soon to follow.
18. President Trump and the GOP Senate have appointed 44 Federal judges to date.
19. President Trump halted unvetted immigration from terrorists countries and implemented extreme vetting for all legal immigration, greatly reducing the influx of America-hating Muslims, as well as greatly reducing the pool of radicalized terrorists.
20. President Trump has cracked down on illegal immigration in general, stemming the flood from our southern border.
21. President Trump has put warriors back in charge of the war department and made warfare the principle aim of the military instead of various social justice ideologies, thus reinvigorating the U.S. as the world’s only superpower and diminishing the probabilities of war via a much stronger hand for peace through strength.
22. President Trump is a strong supporter of Israel, including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem.
23. President Trump has strong relationships with Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
24. President Trump has been playing hardball at every juncture at the UN, including a 24% reduction in U.S. payments to the UN.
25. President Trump’s election and the Clinton’s resultant loss of their singular iron grip of the Democrat Party has effectively destroyed the Democrat Party for the time being. The Democrat Party essentially has no platform other than “Trump is evil” and must be destroyed at all costs. The Party has now lost all party discipline, splintering into internecine warfare and allowing its lunatic and radical socialist, anti-capitalist, anti-law-and-order, anti-border, anti-nationalist, anti-American wings free rein to dominate the national media and national conversation, thus exposing the Democrat Party to the nation-at-large as a radical, anti-American party that’s totally antithetical to traditional American values cherished by the great majority of our citizens.
26. President Trump’s successes and Democrat’s excesses have triggered the “walkaway” movement with Democrats of every generation and socioeconomic status leaving the Democrat party in highly public fashions.
27. Recent polls have shown that younger voting generations are now equally split in support of Republicans and Democrats, which is completely unprecedented; recent polls have also shown that younger voters are also unlikely to vote in great numbers in midterm elections. Youngsters have traditionally been supporters of Democrats so both these sets of polls are bad news for the Democrats.
28. The Democrat Party is having extreme difficulty with fundraising at the national level, while the national GOP has record fundraising.
29. Polls repeatedly show that the GOP is more trusted on economic and national security issues than the Democrats.
30. President Trump’s approval numbers are higher at this point than Obama’s were at this same time in his first term, despite the leftist fake stream media’s universal adulation of Obama then, and their universal hatred of Trump now.
31. Since 2016, Congressional Democrats have continuously demonstrated that they are completely unwilling to assist in governing our nation and have demonstrated their contempt for the well-being of our people, instead adopting strident scorched earth policies of obfuscation, propaganda, lies, and “resistance”, no matter how badly such behavior may hurt our citizens and our nation.
32. The leftist fake stream media, Hollywood “celebrities”, and Democrat leaders like Maxine Waters have deliberately encouraged an environment of extreme public hostility, abandoning all norms of civil behavior, publicly hounding and attacking all who disagree with them, attempting to stifle freedom of speech at every turn, and even provoking weak-minded individuals into extreme violence, such as the attempted assassinations of Congressional Republicans at the Congressional Baseball Game for Charity in 2017. These acts simply do not inspire the average voter to want to put these kinds of people back into power.
33. The Democrat Party is wildly out of sync with the attitudes of the vast majority of regular folks, overtly promoting open borders and encouraging floods of illegal immigrants who do not speak, understand, or write English and who depress wages, and soak up tens of billions of dollars of free medical care and welfare paid by the taxpayers, as well as opposing the right of regular folks to own firearms for self-protection, proclaiming the desire to repeal the wildly popular and wildly effective GOP tax reform, impeaching President Trump solely because they refuse to accept that Trump won the election, abolish ICE (the agency that protects our borders and vets imported goods to prevent the import of weapons of mass destruction, counterfeit and/or dangerous goods), and the insane promotion of so-called “sanctuary cities”, in which violent, drug-dealing illegal alien gang-members and all other violent predatory illegal alien felons are protected from deportation.
34. President Trump has nearly destroyed the 1984ish Newspeak “politically correct” restrictions on free speech that the leftists have been perpetuating for decades in an attempt to limit people’s ability to speak the plain truth.
35. Private-sector rank-and-file union members are no longer knee-jerk supporters of the Democrats, finally realizing that Democrat (and Bushite) economic policies have been designed to flood the U.S. market with cheap illegal alien labor while at the same time driving manufacturing offshore to 3rd world countries with cheap labor supplies of their own, whereas President Trump and the Congressional GOP have been implementing policies to reverse these destructive trends. Additionally, a recent Supreme Count decision has eliminated public sector unions from extorting money from non-union public sector workers via the forced garnishment of union dues from government paychecks, with the result that these unions will be deprived of tens of millions of ill-gained dollars that they’ve been funneling to Democrat candidates and are also in the process of losing hundreds of thousands of members who joined only because they had to pay anyway whether or not they were members.
Thus, nearly all the political winds are pointing to a crushing defeat of the Democrats in 2018.
How the hell can someone who is uneducated even understand tariffs? Seriously...
I got in before the primary! Won $9,200!
35 lucid reasons, I hope correct.
Very few polls are so slanted, so bad, so consistently wrong and in huge amounts than the Q-PAC poll.
They are rather infamous for being very wrong. It’s amazing they continue to “poll” at all.
That Trump is blessed with imbeciles for enemies is no more clearly seen than in the Media's insistence on repeating the "strategy" that lost last time.
'Give the dumb Repub voters fake polls telling them they can't win, and it will depress GOP turnout so we will win.'
Good call. Excellent plan. BWWWWAAAAHHHAHAHAHA!!!
president’s voters can never be fully satisfied less than two years into a given presidency.
I’ll take that bet
Perhaps the only blue wave will be blue liquid seeping out of a camper toilet.
Which 27 are you looking at? RCP has 34 with the bulk of the “toss ups” being Republicans in liberal states.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
“35 lucid reasons, I hope correct.”
ditto ...
I think GOP will gain a few.
PDJT is not a "typical" Republican President, and the Obama deep-state scandals are like a coiled spring, with Trump's finger on the release button.
I think he's going release an amazing excrement-storm of deep-state evidence in the weeks before the election. They'll be screaming as they go into election day.
“I got in before the primary! Won $9,200!”
my net earnings AFTER taxes was $5,600 ...
i bet at various odds of 1-4, 1-5 ... like i said, stupid odds ... i figured 50/50 would have been more realistic, but odds or no odds, my instinct STRONGLY said Trump was going to win, and the odds made the bet all the sweeter (btw, i am NOT a betting man either! i play nickle slots or even penny slots when in Vegas)
Currently, I occasionally check odds on predictit.com about various U.S. politics issues, and the odds all look fair (bummer), with little chance of making any money unless really big bucks are wagered against small winning amounts, which are not my kind of bets ... I doubt we’ll see such ridiculously wrong odds as the Trump odds again on U.S. politics on predictit.com for a very long time ...
I hear socialist Ocasio Cortez is helping out Democrats bigtime-——
She’s planning to run realtime ads on the scene in Venezuela———videoing herself handing out free toilet tissue to starving Venezuelans.
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Good one!!
She’ll hand out one tissue square at a time. LOL
And many of the Republicans that did not vote for Trump in 2016 are now very happy with his accomplishments, and they will be voting for him this year.
I disagree for two reasons. First, there may be a certain percentage of the democrat party that is outraged at Trump, highly motivated leftists for their progressive causes. However, that percentage is relatively small. The average democrat sees its party lurching to left, to the point of not wanting to support their causes. Eliminate ICE, Impeach 45, sanctuary cities, universal basic income, socialism, etc.
Second, Trump (and correspondingly republicans, in the eyes of others) told the electorate what he would do as President. Unlike many past Presidents, he has successfully implemented his promises. Recognize Jerusalem as the capitol of Israel and move the embassy there; tax reform; tax cuts; eliminate business stifling regulations; free and fair trade deals; 3-4% GDP; low unemployment for blacks and latinos; while Obamacare wasn't eliminated, there is no longer a mandate; I could go on and on. That will be a huge difference in this mid-term election.
Republicans around the country will see Trump's coatails affect voters. Percentage of minorities voting republican will increase. Because the media has unfairly treated Trump in so many ways, the turnout will favor republicans. The republican base is energized (see the numbers in some of the primaries). The moderate democrats have no reason to get excited to go to the polls to vote for socialism, open borders, increased taxes and sanctuary cities. It just won't happen.
You got that right!
The pollsters might as well toss all their prior election data in the dumpster.
Trump is not your average president and this is not your average election.
Even thought Steny put a muzzle on Ocasio, it was too late.
That toothpaste was already out of the tube.
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