Posted on 07/10/2018 6:52:31 AM PDT by Liberty7732
President Trump’s announcement Monday of District of Columbia federal appeals court Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court creates a likely win-win for Trump and Republicans.
But while the Democratic/media establishment talking points were well lined up ahead of whoever was the nominee, the reality is that there is almost nothing Democrats can do about it. Thanks to Sen. Harry Reid’s short-sighted power play changing the rules on how judges are confirmed when he was Majority Leader, it now only requires 51 votes — or 50 votes plus the Vice President — to approve Kavanaugh.
The Republicans are at 51 in the Senate right now. So both pro-choice Republican Senators, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine, would have to vote against Kavanaugh. But they have both already voted for him to be on the appeals court, one step below the Supreme Court. They both voted for Justice Neil Gorsuch last year. The likelihood of them voting against him now is remarkably thin.
But there is more to the Democrats’ hurdle of blocking Kavanaugh.
Five Democrat Senators are running for re-election this November in traditionally red states that Trump won by double digits. Five more are running in states Trump won by smaller margins, including Florida, where Republican Gov. Rick Scott leads Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson in the polls for that Senate seat. (Although Nelson pre-emptively said he would vote against whoever was the nominee — so much for advise and consent.) Their re-elections hinge on being seen as centrists willing to work with the President. But the #resistance wing of the Democratic Party will be firing endless barrages at Kavanaugh and pushing every Democrat Senator to vote against him while hoping to flip one or two Republican votes. Highly unlikely.
It’s a bad position for these five Democrat incumbents: Joe Manchin, W.V; Heidi Heitkamp, N.D.; Jon Tester, Mont.; Claire McCaskill, Mo. and Joe Donnelly, Ind. If they stay centrist in appearance and vote to approve Kavanaugh then their odds of re-election improve, but Trump and the GOP (and America) win the new Supreme Court Justice going away. If they cave to their liberal base, then Trump-supporters in their states will be more fired up to come out and work against them, perhaps costing them their re-elections. Also good for Trump and Republicans.
It is just a very long shot that Democrats and two Republicans could stop this nomination. The timing of this fight is beneficial for Trump and the GOP.
It’s also imperative to appreciate the historicity of this moment, the opportunity laid before the President and his supporters.
Trump’s appointment of Justice Neil Gorsuch has proven to be everything conservatives could want as Gorsuch showed his metal as a Constitutionalist judge, opining based on the U.S. Constitution and establishing a firm, traditional American understanding in his first cases issued two weeks ago. In every one, he was solidly in the line of the late, great Justice Antonin Scalia, whom he replaced.
But now, with the nomination of Kavanaugh to replace the retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy, Trump and Republicans have the opportunity to cement a pro-Constitution, pro-traditional American majority on the Supreme Court for the first time in generations. This is not a conservative vs. liberal breakdown in the sense of normal politics, as the media simplistically paints it, but a Constitutional vs. political activist court division. Political conservatives want originalist, textualist judges even if they do not rule on an issue the way conservatives want. Liberals want judges who act as a third law-making body, pushing a progressive agenda.
Kennedy was a swing vote on cases, sometimes with the Constitutionalist wing and sometimes with the progressive activist wing. But he himself was not a Constitutionalist. He flopped all around absent a grounding legal philosophy, depending on his personal views of the issue, not the law.
Kavanaugh can replace Kennedy as a strong originalist like Gorsuch and cement the Constitutionalist majority.
From all conservative Trump supporters to all Never-Trumper conservatives: You’re welcome.
McCain actually endorsed a Kavanaugh and said he’d vote for him.
One thing I've learned over the decades is to never underestimate the GOP's propensity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
And don’t forget he worked for Kagan.
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Opps, I forgot about that. Thanks for pointing that out.
Its also disconcerting that he calls Montgomery County, Maryland, his home. A bastion of liberalism if there ever was one.
I’m not thrilled with Kavanaugh. However, at the same time we should all be very thankful that at least Hillary didn’t get the opportunity to make a pick. :)
Your theory being that McCain, knowing he could safely vote Yes and still see the nomination fail, needed to appear to support a conservative so that his hoped for replacement by his wife will not be fought vigorously?
Good catch! Thank you!
This should be brought up in the Senate Hearings.
"Mr. Kavanaugh, it seems that a traitorous, pro-ISIS, narcissistic war-mongering Deep-State globalist psychopath has endorsed you. Would you mind explaining that?"
It’s going to be Meghan, not Cindy.
“McCain actually endorsed a Kavanaugh and said he’d vote for him.”
I understand that, but as his disease has most likely progressed to the point where he’s no longer ambulatory, he can’t go to DC to vote. So his approbation means nothing in terms of getting the nomination through the Senate. If he has a shred of decency left, he will resign his seat and let Douchie appoint a successor immediately.
I recognize there are a lot of games being played when a President nominates a Supreme Court Justice. So we do not always get an Alito or a Gorsuch.
That being said, I try keep in mind that if Hillary was our current President, we would already have Barrack Obama in the Supreme Court instead of Neil Gorsuch. And today we would be moaning that Eric Holder was nominated last night to replace Anthony Kennedy.
Hopefully, Ruth Bader Ginsburg will soon realize she has become far too old to put up with the rigors of being a Supreme Court Justice and checks into an Assisted Living Facility.
The Leftists must really be at their wits these days when they think about what the near-future Supreme Court will look like.
“It’s going to be Meghan, not Cindy.”
You mean the beast with three heads?
That is my theory. That has work for them for a long time now. They are puppets control by other people.
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