The universe is incomprehensibly vast in terms of distance and time.
There have doubtlessly been, are now, and will in the future be countless civilizations, but they are so far away in terms of distance and time that they might as well not exist for all practical purposes.
After years of studying and pondering this unanswerable question I have come out exactly where you are. There may have been large numbers of intelligent civilizations but from a practical standpoint we are likely alone.
Our nearest real galaxy is Andromeda which is 2.5 million light years away. Even if a craft was developed that could go to light speed (doubtful IMO) the distant is just too great. I hate to use the word never but I will. I believe humans will NEVER travel to another galaxy - EVER. So for practical purposes life on other galaxies may be irrelevant to us.
So we are left with the Milky Way which is perhaps 180,000 light years across with 400 billion stars. If you study how precise our Earth had to be to support life and how small changes in location, atmosphere, magnetic properties etc would have made life impossible then one sees it is likely a small percentage of planets that actually support life and yet an even smaller subset with intelligent life. Then we probably have even a smaller subset of planets with intelligent life that can actually leave their planet or communicate with us. The 1% of 1% you mention may be close or it could be a smaller or larger number. If we look the short time we have been able to barely leave our Earth that results in even a smaller subset.
It could be that the Milky Way has hosted many, many intelligent civilizations but they have gone the way of the dinosaur. The question is -- how many exist right now within a manageable range - perhaps 50 light years? Probably not many if any. If they exist 1,000 light years away they may as well not even exist from a practical standpoint to humans alive right now.
So I am left with the possibility that while there may well have been many, many intelligent civilizations that existed ... at this particular point in time we may be completely alone for all practical purposes.
There have doubtlessly been, are now, and will in the future be countless civilizations, but they are so far away in terms of distance and time that they might as well not exist for all practical purposes.
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That is true with the technology we have today. It doesn’t mean others don’t have the technology today to cross immense distances and one day we might also have the technology to do the same.
That's only true if you accept Einstein's speed limit.
There may be advanced civilizations out there that never got the memo.
There have doubtlessly been, are now, and will in the future be countless civilizations, but they are so far away in terms of distance and time that they might as well not exist””
The distances are too great to ever get there. I see no reason at all to think there is life elsewhere?? But, the fantasy is interesting and sort of mind stimulating to consider,.