Posted on 12/05/2017 9:55:33 AM PST by Oldeconomybuyer
California could be hit with significantly more dangerous and more frequent droughts in the near future as changes in weather patterns triggered by global warming block rainfall from reaching the state, according to new research led by scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
Using complex new modeling, the scientists have found that rapidly melting Arctic sea ice now threatens to diminish precipitation over California by as much as 15% within 20 to 30 years. Such a change would have profound economic impacts in a state where the most recent drought drained several billion dollars out of the economy, severely stressed infrastructure and highlighted how even the state most proactively confronting global warming is not prepared for its fallout.
The model the scientists used homed in on the link between the disappearance of sea ice in the Arctic and the buildup of high ridges of atmospheric pressure over the Pacific Ocean. Those ridges push winter storms away from the state, causing drought.
Because the model only projects future impacts, the study does not focus on the role melting Arctic ice may have played in the massive drought from which California recently emerged — the most severe in 1,200 years, according to one scientific study.
“There is lots of research to be done". “Hopefully we do it in time to allow people to plan for whatever may be coming.”
(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...
New Crop of Democrats
Can't we spray for those?
Time to raise those carbon taxes (again).
As these guys face exposure of their lies, repudiation by legitimate scientists and the disgust of an person with common sense they get more shrill & increasingly desperate.
And the models are always correct, even though they cannot predict next weeks weather.
Not news and quite well explained in native American history.
'Cause we discovered that the old stuff was complete crap...
Hey Lawrence, pray tell, how would it “block” rainfall? If the Arctic were to melt, would that not put more moisture into the upper atmosphere, thereby producing more rain-bearing clouds and thus more rain? Do you models not show that the circulation pattern of the north Pacific are what prevent most rainfall from hitting the west coast south of Oregon?
“Using complex, new modeling”
Which really means we’ve figured out a new way to work backwards from the answers we want proven to be “true!”
You know what they say, the more complex the less the reliability. 8>) In other words, this is a bigger piece of crap.
Isn’t California the same state that has 2.3 million (2014) illegal aliens who exhale CO2, aliens who easily get driver’s licenses to drive vehicles with big carbon footprints?
I thought it was "SETTLED SCIENCE?"
Silly me.
Did you ever notice that the changes are always fairly drastic, always negative, and always within most reader’s lifetimes?
That last part is for effect, because they know people would be less likely to be scared into.... whatever it is that these people want you scared into... if it was centuries out.
But you’ll also notice, all the predictions of the last several generations failed to produce such drastic and negative results. That’s the pitfall of propaganda. Getting proved wrong if you don’t extend out your predictions long enough.
... and if you go back far enough, like the “New Ice Age” alarmists of many decades ago, by the time the people who make this propaganda are exposed, they are either dead, or no longer have a career to be threatened
This global climate change “science” has become a new religion—never changing their story when their prophecies fail.
At this point they are just a stupid cult.
Anyone who is familiar with how models 'work', as far as deciding what is included and what is not included, along with subjective parameter choices and weights and other types of tuning and adjustments and algorithms and statistical legerdemain and fudge factors and opinions, as well as the potential for undiscovered coding errors to creep in from both custom and boilerplate code, and the ability of the modelers to make as many runs of the model as desired, throwing out results that do not provide the 'right answer', is aware that a better phrasing of the partial quote above would be: "using complex new modeling, we know that any desired result of the model can be achieved at the whim of the modelers..."
Other climate models have shown no 'skill' at predicting effects at a regional level, yet this one claims to do so.
Keep in mind also that scientists don't even have a proper handle on accurately modeling the influence of something as commonplace as clouds on the climate and its changes.
But... remember how complex modelling of financial markets prevented the great stock market crash of 2008 and all of the disruptions that it caused? No? Neither do I. And yet, the best modelling and risk management minds on the planet had been doing 'complex modelling' designed to help us avoid such financial risks.
Why would anyone with a sound mind believe that these scientists have figured it out correctly from their 'complex modelling'? How much tweaking of the model and various model initialization inputs and runs was required for them to come up with the 'right' (predetermined) answer? And how could it possibly be tested?
Properly-constructed models can indeed be used to inform and test hypotheses, within appropriate limits. However it would take an enormous leap of (unsubstantiated) faith to believe that the modelling reported here is fit for the purpose of "allowing people to plan for whatever may be coming."
Sorry, RJ. It is a “complex model.” You wouldn’t understand.
Now, how much of your income should you pay to atone for your wasteful ways? 50%? 75%? Should we grab 90%? Don’t worry, we’ll make sure you have enough to live on. Do you prefer twigs or grass?
Predicting drought in the state that contains Death Valley and the Mojave Desert. WOW, you are a genius!!
“Next week”?
Here in the SF Bay Area, the 24 hour forecasts of rain are less than 50% accurate.
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