Posted on 12/02/2017 1:37:52 AM PST by Kaslin
FINAL UPDATE - The votes are in, and the ayes have it. After a marathon evening of debating and considering amendments, the US Senate has approved the GOP's tax reform bill, which would simplify the tax code and cut taxes for the vast majority of American households, small businesses and corporations. Every Republican voted yes, except for Tennessee's Bob Corker. Democrats uniformly voted no. This is a big legislative victory for the GOP, which overcame a great deal of ferocious opposition -- much of it rooted in misinformation -- to pass the legislation. Up next, a conference committee with the House. But here's your summary for tonight:
FINAL: With Vice President Pence presiding, the US Senate approves a major tax cut & simplification package, 51-49. The bill will now head to a conference committee, where it will be merged with the House-passed bill.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 2, 2017
UPDATE III - It's now looking official: Senate Republicans have the votes to pass tax reform. Arizona's Jeff Flake announced he's jumping on the bandwagon, and the finalized legislation includes a (paid for) amendment sought by Maine's Susan Collins that mirrors the House-passed SALT (state and local tax deduction) compromise. That strongly suggests that she'll be a "yes," too. Add it up, and that's 51, negating the need for Vice President Pence to break a potential tie. Depending on Bob Corker's mood in a few hours, McConnell might even get all 52 GOP votes. But all he really needs is 50-plus-one, and he says he's got 'em:
BREAKING: McConnell walks onto the floor and tells reporters: “We have the votes.”— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) December 1, 2017
ORIGINAL POST - The Republican-held House of Representatives did its part by passing a tax overhaul earlier this month, with zero Democrats supporting the effort. That bill cut taxes and boosted after-tax incomes, on average, across every income group in the country, and is projected by nonpartisan analysts to grow the US economy and create close to one million new full-time jobs. It would also lower the tax burden on job-creating small businesses (key small business advocacy groups have endorsed the Republican push), and make America's extremely high statutory and effective corporate tax rates far more competitive internationally. But we've seen this movie before. With the "resistance" in full demagogic throat, and Democrats bound in lockstep opposition, will the GOP's narrow Senate majority fumble the ball, as they did on Obamacare? We'll know soon enough, and tea leaves are mixed. A vote is expected later today. As we brace what's next, let's first note three developments from yesterday (see update) that may portend a successful outcome (see update II) for Mitch McConnell's conference:
(1) John McCain is a committed "yes." As the Senator who more or less single-handedly killed his party's "repeal and replace" efforts in July, having him clearly on board is a huge boon to Republican leadership. McCain's official statement touted the expected benefits of the bill -- acknowledging concerns about it, but ultimately determining that the legislation's upside was strong enough to secure his support:
After careful consideration, I have decided to support the Senate #TaxReform bill. Though not perfect, this bill will deliver much-needed reform to our tax code, grow the economy & provide long overdue tax relief for American families. https://t.co/BeWZAT0SjM pic.twitter.com/6qwYhmyE5p— John McCain (@SenJohnMcCain) November 30, 2017
He even specifically addressed and endorsed the proposal's provision that would repeal Obamacare's tent pole, the federal individual mandate tax: "I have also argued that health care reform, which is important both to the well-being of our citizens and to the vitality of our economy, should proceed by regular order. This bill does not change that. As a matter of principle, I’ve always supported individual liberty and believe the federal government should not penalize Americans who cannot afford to purchase expensive health insurance. By repealing the individual mandate, this bill would eliminate an onerous tax that especially harms those from low-income brackets. In my home state of Arizona, 80 percent of people who currently pay the individual mandate penalty earn less than $50,000 per year," he wrote.
(2) The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation released its "dynamic scoring" analysis that the Senate bill would add less than $1 trillion to deficits over a decade, as opposed to the on-paper $1.4 trillion figure reached under "static scoring." The reason for this is that JCT anticipates the tax relief package would add nearly one percentage point to GDP growth over the next ten years, resulting in new revenues. Many supporters will argue that JCT underestimates the economic benefits of tax reform, but their report still offers two positive data points:
Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP "by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10- year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period."— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 30, 2017
(3) For what it's worth:
Just spoke w/ Senate leadership source who I'd characterize as hopeful but never quite confident on the "repeal & replace" whip count over the summer. Sounds *much* more confident on tax reform today, despite some issues still being ironed out. #fwiw— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 30, 2017
That was the state of play late yesterday afternoon, with my well-placed source telling me McConnell and company were in a "really good place" in terms of corralling the requisite 50-plus-one votes. The source stopped short of guaranteeing passage at the time, but described potential holdouts as playing an active and "constructive" role in shaping the bill throughout the process, carried out through regular order. Susan Collins is said to be in a decent spot, and McConnell's "substitute amendment" (effectively the bill that was formally debated on the floor) was co-sponsored by...Lisa Murkowski. The three squeakiest wheels, I was told, were outgoing Tennessee Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake (who want a deficit-related "backstop" to reduce the tax cuts if economic growth falls short of targets), and Wisconsin's Ron Johnson. Johnson been characterized as a "hard no" in the media, but he's a pro-business, low-tax conservative at heart. I'm not so sure he's still in the 'nay' column, considering his evolving posture (this was from Wednesday evening-- and see update below):
We still have work to do, but I have been working with the administration and Senate leadership to make progress toward a better bill. - rj #taxreform— Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) November 29, 2017
The bigger challenges appear to stem from the other two Senators, who emerged at the center of some floor drama last evening, which bubbled to the surface in full view of reporters. (My source quoted above still sounds optimistic, but last evening was a setback). Relevant parties spent the overnight hours seeking to hammer out an accommodation to address Corker and Flake's deficit concerns after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that a proposed "trigger" mechanism compromise did not pass procedural muster under reconciliation rules. Might that eleventh-hour wrinkle cause the upper chamber GOP to once again face-plant? Stay tuned for the yeas and nays, which may again blow up in embarrassing fashion -- or could result in a big policy and political win for Republicans. In the meantime, the Left is shouting as loudly as possible to kill the bill. Some of their biggest claims are false. Equip yourself with the facts, and help educate others. The empirically-supportable truth is that the vast majority of taxpayers stand to benefit from tax reform. Nevertheless, every single Senate Democrat marched along to Chuck Schumer's beat and voted against even debating the proposal, some of whom defended their decision with nonsensical explanations like this:
I voted against the motion to proceed on the Republican #taxreform plan because I haven’t seen a final bill. I’m still trying to work w/ my R colleagues & @realdonaldtrump to find a bipartisan way forward.— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 29, 2017
He couldn't vote to advance a debate over how the final bill would look because he...hadn't seen the final bill, or something. Got it. I'll leave you with a parting thought for Mssrs. Corker and Flake:
Think very carefully, Sens Flake & Corker.
If you jointly jeopardize tax reform, it would (a) risk defeating your own long-held policy goal, (b) reek of anti-Trump pettiness, & (c) reinforce idea that GOP should prioritize personal loyalty to Trump in primaries. Lose-lose-lose.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE - As I predicted above, Johnson is now a 'yes,' and despite last night's worrisome snag, my sources are telling me that things are again looking good. They stopped short of an airtight guarantee, but both said they expect a successful vote at some point today:
?? Sen. Ron Johnson tells Milwaukee radio WISN 1130 minutes ago he is a "yes" vote https://t.co/b0eJAzNIJL— J.D. Durkin (@jiveDurkey) December 1, 2017
"The question seems to be, how many Republican votes are they going to get? Is it going to be 50, 51, or 52? But, at this point...it would be really shocking if they didn't get to 50 which is what they need." - @guypbenson— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) December 1, 2017
This is what I've heard within the last hour, having spoken w/ several plugged-in sources. Sounding like 49 locked-in 'yes' votes, w strong likelihood that at least 1 more comes into the fold. Leadership optimistic about a vote later today. https://t.co/59dtanMrcl— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE II - It looks like this is happening (or maybe not?):
BREAKING: Second-ranking Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, says GOP has the votes to pass sweeping tax overhaul.— The Associated Press (@AP) December 1, 2017
New: Sen. Bob Corker tells @siobhanehughes the bill will probably pass:
https://t.co/wspkmPMJ0H via @WSJ— Richard Rubin (@RichardRubinDC) December 1, 2017
Big potential problem for GOP leaders: Susan Collins disputes Cornyn’s claim that they have her support for the GOP tax bill. (They see her as their 50th and pivotal vote)
“I can’t imagine why Senator Cornyn is speaking for me,” she told me. “I speak for myself”— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) December 1, 2017
When this tax plan goes through, we lose $10,000 of deductions, mostly property tax and medical.
I am retired on Social Security and my wife works a job where she is getting paid 65% of her marketable value.
Thanks Mr. Trump.
“...rat’s a$$ whether this bill is helpful to me personally or not. ...lousy first step, but it IS a first step...”
This is also the position that I am taking. If this did not pass in some form the momentum for President Trump’s agenda would have fizzled completely and he would have been somewhat successfully branded as a failure by the enemedia which would have taken a serious toll on Trump’s presidency.
Well put; “we need this win in order to fight on”!!! (and I am a resident of New York State).
“Who said I was doing that?”
Free Republic as stated by it’s owner is a MAGA, Pro-Trump forum. If you no longer believe in MAGA...you can figure it out, maybe.
“Have you ever objected to prevailing opinions on this board?”
Irrelevant to the discussion. Try again.
“Have you ever objected to anything the Federal government had done or was trying to do to you?”
Sure have. That’s why I voted for Donald Trump to be our President. It’s also why I am thrilled with this tax cut bill. High state taxes will no longer be subsidized by Fedzilla. That’s a wonderful thing :)
Antibusiness is not a good point of view
Business makes the world go round
“...High state taxes will no longer be subsidized by Fedzilla...”
I agree and I live in New York State. If this “unmasks” Cuomo and the democrats’ high tax chokehold on our state even if I have to pay more (hopefully temporarily), it is worth it as a patriot.
The truth is the vast majority of Americans understand less about finances and economics than they do about geography. This ignorance is paramount for our federal leviathan’s continued operation. Arguing about specific cases or attempting to “educate” people is what the elites want—it keeps the hoi-poloi busy and has little or no real effect.
Most people are fine with being screwed as long as it’s their team doing the screwing. Until the people realize their are no teams, the show can go on. Welcome to the other side of the curtain.
“And furthermore, there are many Freepers on this board who have raised the same issues with this “tax cut” as I have.”
So? Just what does Obamacare have to do with this discussion? FWIW I was on Medicare Advantage, and my insurer simply cancelled my policy in response to Obamacare’s outrageous provisions, forcing me to seek new insurance. But I fixed my own problem and now I have an even better HC plan. And it’s the same with income taxes. Will there need to be adjustments, sure! Will some people have to figure out different mechanisms to resolve their personal tax circumstances? Yes. Is there a possibility of some changes in the RE market as a consequence of the new tax legislation? Possibly. But if we all sit around and pi$$ and moan about how each of us is adversely affected by this change, NOTHING GET’S DONE for us as a country. Furthermore as one legislator I saw remarked, there will be more changes to the tax code coming. But they won’t be coming if we manage to turn the Congress back over to the RATS for doing NOTHING!
Personally, I'd like to see less spending from the feds, but I guess some tax increases are needed (for now).
So only poor people have more than 2.2 children?
Yeah they will reinvest that money right back into the boards pocket.
It will not be into raises for their workers, better benefits or expansions to existing infrastructure.
I asked a simple question regarding your objection to people who raise counterpoints to legislation that adversely affects them (i.e. this tax increase on millions in the middle class). You accused me of being "selfish" - and I asked if those who were raped by ObamaCare and objected were also "selfish."
Really? You are unable to fathom that analogy?
Of course they will.
The bill was drafted by the corrupt, every-lying Congress,
led by the serial liars McConnell and the GOP.
Therefore, it is not really fair to blame Pres. Trump,
because the scum bags in Congress
(who deserve to be decimated
on the steps of the Capitol by the People for their
Treason, and coverup, and abuse of the IRS, etc. etc.)
did this on their own, and in part to hurt the President.
They always work to hurt the President the American
people chose in Nov. 2016.
Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP “by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10-year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period.”— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram)
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Or, put another way the projected loss of $1.414 billion.......would be about the same dollar amount as ONE dark of the night air transport of unmarked bills to lran
I was never, ever a "Never Trumper." I didn't vote for Cruz, Rubio, or Jeb.
Trump will sign this tax abortion. It is 99.999% certain.
For me, that will be a betrayal of his promises - and yes, a betrayal of MAGA.
The man isn't Jesus Christ.
Will I still support him when and if we go to war? Will I still support him when and if he moves our embassy to Jerusalem? Will I still support him if he supports second amendment rights, or fights against abortion?
Yes.
Is this tax increase on millions of us a betrayal of MAGA?
It sure is.
So how in the heck will every Blue Stater manage to pick up and move if they can’t get a sale price large enough to pay off their mortgage? Who will buy their homes?
I’m sure red staters won’t mind the migration of blue staters. Lol!
Lol! I was thinking the exact same thing.
“This is also the position that I am taking. If this did not pass in some form the momentum for President Trump’s agenda would have fizzled completely and he would have been somewhat successfully branded as a failure by the enemedia which would have taken a serious toll on Trump’s presidency.”
I am completely at odds with what passes in the US Senate as “Republicans.” And I want to RIF virtually all of them. But it needs to be done so as to not loose the Republican “majority!” The idea that we have to play “political footsey” with the conglomeration of “shit balls” ( i.e. Corker, Flake and McConnell) and self-serving twits ( i.e. Murkowski and Collins) are anathemas to me, but they are the “$hitty cards we’re holding today. We have to root them out one by one and replace them with people who can work together for the good of ALL of the country.
True.
Don't forget the Goldman Sachs snakes (Mnuchin and Cohn) also.
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