“The Euro track is the heavy black line on Sept. 4th. They have not been right all along.:”
I keep waiting for some convincing science for why everyone predicts this right turn up through Florida. Low pressure up in the NE?
My guess is they have no idea, but they’d much rather have predicted the worst case scenario for Florida, and be wrong.
If they predict a continues westward path, and it does hit Fla head on, nobody evacuates and they have major egg on their faces.
If they predict it hits Fla, but it continues westward, they are wrong “on the safe side”, because they still have a couple days to get the new potential targets prepared and motivated for evacuation.
I don’t really blame them if they are playing these kind of crowd control psych ops. Getting people to think worst case scenario is probably not a bad idea.
But I don’t think they have a clue where it’s going.
Look at post 2063 A high pressure ridge is building in front of Irma. She may crash into it, but she WON'T go through it. Eventually, she'll ride up the edge of it.
Still looks to me like they have to get a little close though... so, more west... for a bit more.
“No one really knows”
THAT is the problem, that is tragic and unacceptable. What other profession tolerates people who not only say their job is impossible, but ADMIT they can’t do it? “ Oopsie” isn’t cutting it with people’s lives and homes. Are there any SCIENTISTS working this field now, or is it all Data Entry Computer play? I’d like to hear what the local weather reporters on the Gulf Coast are telling people. Is Miami hearing the same thing as Pensacola? 24 hrs from continental landfall and NO one will say ‘ok-these areas are safe, it’s going here’. And can the NHC-local weather ‘personalities’ be sued for loss of life and property if they are ‘surprised’? If not, why not? Have sny ever been fired for incompetence? Maybe if the public started holding these ‘my job is Forecasting, but we can’t do that’ types responsible we’d get scientific accuracy instead of excuses for incompetence. All the degrees, all the instruments and computers and satellites and still ‘no one can predict’??