Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Oh my.
I didn't know that NHC had an operation in SW Fl. Thought they operated out of Miami.
18z GFS east of FL..likely misses the state
Part of what is strengthening Irma is the warm surface temperatures. If Jose follows in her path, will she have stirred up some of the colder water from depth so he will not have the same fuel?
I wouldn't let that stop me. It's better today that in will be tomorrow.
I left Boca for Orlando as Andrew barreled in. All lanes went north at a snail's pace, frightened children and pets jammed into cars with luggage and laundry baskets, even a few horses on trailers. We were all looking at one another with fear, but that was fine.
Just be sure you have enough gas and CASH. And don't get off the road for anything until you absolutely must. Fill the tank, empty bladders, buy takeout food and get back on again right away.
The difference between the GFS and the official track is maddening.
In some ways you are reinforcing what Rush Limbaugh said today — I don’t know if you saw that thread. I didn’t think he needed to say all he said, but there is an “industry of despair” to all of this.
We do it in fellowship with each other all over the country and because many minds can come up with a wider variety of insight and technical overview.
I have somewhat become addicted to realtime geophysical event monitoring. The internet has so many fine resources that weren’t available to the public decades ago.
In theory, you are correct—provided Jose follows in Irma’s shadow. Last I saw, Jose is really expected to make a turn North. Don’t lose focus on Irma.
A station in SWFL was interviewing an NHC guy from the report.
The island is also the major East Coast flyway for migrating birds. So, if we're seeing Silent Springs, that might be the reason.
The island is also the major East Coast flyway for migrating birds. So, if we're seeing Silent Springs, that might be the reason.
Was it Ed Rappaport?
They said it was ch. 7 about an hour ago. I don’t know where that is.
Yeah, GFS has gone full Floyd.
Who told this story?
The farthest east big refinery on the Gulf is Chevron at Pascagoula, MS. There is a smaller Shell refinery at Mobile. There is no drilling in the Florida waters and no refineries there (although the Alabama and Mississippi offshore rigs may well be evacuated depending on how far west the storm comes.)
Which is all a long way of saying Irma probably won't have much impact on supplies outside of Florida. Colonial got one of its pipelines going yesterday, which is good news for the folks in the southeast and mid Atlantic states. As for refineries, one has resumed production, 4 are operating at reduced levels, and 9 are still shut down.
Ed Rappaport said we would have a better/good confidence track on Thursday.
Fascinating.... closed biospheres do funny things with intro’d species. Anything to keep the snakes and rodents down, I can empathize.
Thank you for the oil production update. Very useful info.
No idea if Florida is a net importer or exporter of electric power, (very complex scenarios evolve, where an area can be both at once), but...
Every smart grid operator knows to amputate his area of operations from any adjoining disturbances that could negatively affect his system. If Irma goes straight north, up the Florida axis, it won’t much matter how fast it weakens...100 mph winds WILL break overgrown tree limbs and bring down power lines over that same huge area.
I’ve theorized many sets of preparations for maintaining communications, but what has actually WORKED WELL during prolonged power outages is as follows:
Extra phone batteries and hand cranked generators are great, but much better, is a small 12 volt cigarette lighter inverter, along with a rechargable cell phone charger, the bigger the better. You plug the inverter into ANY working cigarette lighter socket, all you need is a good car battery, you don’t even have to start the engine or waste gasoline. Charge the phone charger, then take it (and the inverter, if you’re on the move) along with you, for 3 to 6 full phone charges, wherever and whenver you need them.
It won’t hurt to have your own satellite capable cellphone tower, and a 50 kilowatt Cat diesel generator to drive it, but in peripheral storm damage areas, that’s a whole different calculation.
My inverter fits (barely) in a shirt pocket, and cost $11 on sale at a truck stop. Normally $35. My rechargable phone chargerS are smaller, pack of cigarette sized, and run $20 to $75, depending on capacity.
Tou do not have a working system till you’vectested it this week. Batteries lose capacity over time, and mini USB cables are constructed out of vapor and wishful thinking. That cable has always been the weak link for me.
Hand crank generators and extra phone batteries just make a great system that much better.
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