Skip to comments.
Hurricane Irma Live Thread
NHC/NOAA ^
| NHC/NOAA
| NHC/NOAA
Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: cat6; category6; florida; hurricane; hurricaneirma; irma; livehurricaneirma; nautinurse; prepper; preppers; puertorico; virginislands
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 481-500, 501-520, 521-540 ... 2,081-2,085 next last
To: sheikdetailfeather
To: NautiNurse
good morning
Thanks for the thread
To: NautiNurse
it should say Irma..not ignore..lol
To: sheikdetailfeather
that might be the UKmet model....I wouldn’t call it the “best” but its not the worst either..i
To: NautiNurse
Checking in from Clearwater, FL.
Amazon pantry can deliver water next Monday. Ugh. Husband and I headed to Publix now. Not sure what we will find.
To: janetjanet998
Good Morning Everyone Bump.
506
posted on
09/05/2017 4:01:49 AM PDT
by
fatima
(Free Hugs Today :))
To: NautiNurse
LOL! Hate to see it hit land at all, but would really hate for it to hit me. If you're in a mall and someone starts shooting, do you stand tall in case ducking would cause a bullet coming your way to hit another person in the mall? Do you hope that you don't get shot?
Anyone who has been through a Katrina understands that one can hope like hell that any possible repeat goes somewhere else - and still sleep with a clear conscience.
507
posted on
09/05/2017 4:02:23 AM PDT
by
trebb
(Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
To: lodi90
No, no, a thousand times no, Matthew did far more damage to my eight acres than Hugo did.
508
posted on
09/05/2017 4:05:33 AM PDT
by
RipSawyer
(Racism is racism regardless of the race of the racist)
To: Islander7
I'm just east of Biloxi - you had a bit more of a surge out that way and around the Kiln but the whole deal was bad. Hope it veers far and fast enough to minimize any damage but Florida seems to be the center line of the highway right now. Hate to see folks take another hit but if it doesn't veer east of Florida then running up the center might help dampen it and keep the horrendous surge from a counterclockwise storm moving east/north along a coastline - pushing water ahead of itself so it has more to push on land.
Prayers up for all of us.
509
posted on
09/05/2017 4:06:40 AM PDT
by
trebb
(Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
To: Ingtar
This GFS model run (Most are predicting this wind field at least) is suggesting hurricane force winds extend out around 80 miles, TS around 200 miles. Going to big strong and big (Wind field) where ever the storm hits.
Best case scenarios for CONUS at this point is a track going over Hispaniola and Cuba which rips the storm up and weakens down to several categories at least (Of course that would be horrible for them) or an abrupt ENE turn (Which is not happening and window is closing) and just becoming "fish food".
510
posted on
09/05/2017 4:08:29 AM PDT
by
rollo tomasi
(Working hard to pay for deadbeats and corrupt politicians.)
To: Ingtar
Sorry forgot link, pay no attention to location, just the expanse of the wind field.
511
posted on
09/05/2017 4:11:44 AM PDT
by
rollo tomasi
(Working hard to pay for deadbeats and corrupt politicians.)
To: jersey117
He boiled it down to a question of which Florida coast. Tough choice for Floridians who may end up evacuating in the wrong direction. I do not envy them. That kind of right turn is going to be very hard to predict in advance. The bright spot this morning is Euro having the storm interact with Cuba. That should weaken it somewhat despite the Euro showing the opposite (strengthening after Cuba). There is history with Charley hitting Cuba but still hitting FL as cat 4 with 150 mph winds, but a very small wind field.
512
posted on
09/05/2017 4:15:38 AM PDT
by
palmer
(...if we do not have strong families and strong values, then we will be weak and we will not survive)
To: sheikdetailfeather
one of their more trusted models brings the storm over Cuba and that would weaken the storm That's the Euro. The model is probably better at tracks than at intensity. The interaction with land like Cuba is difficult to model especially far in advance.
513
posted on
09/05/2017 4:18:03 AM PDT
by
palmer
(...if we do not have strong families and strong values, then we will be weak and we will not survive)
To: NautiNurse
Visiting Maine and will return to Jacksonville Sunday the 17th. Last year I was in Maine when my Florida community evacuated. I may again watch JAX tv on the internet in Maine.
Stay safe y’all
Larry
514
posted on
09/05/2017 4:18:30 AM PDT
by
larryjohnson
(FReepersonaltrainer)
To: rollo tomasi
what was the path on this projection?
515
posted on
09/05/2017 4:18:35 AM PDT
by
rodguy911
(Home of the free because of the brave!MAGA!)
To: palmer
I see this track moving almost every day,I am in Islamorada and my kids in Sugarloaf,they think they can ride it out I want them to go to friends in Orlando.Problem is we don’t have a good grasp on where the eye will hit land.
516
posted on
09/05/2017 4:21:42 AM PDT
by
rodguy911
(Home of the free because of the brave!MAGA!)
To: Rebelbase
“Scientifically complete and utter bullsh_t.”
Care to present a shred of evidence for your assertion...?
It is in fact very basic science. All of the complexity and uncertainty lie around second-order phenomena, in particular atmospheric water vapor and clouds.
Again, I suggest reading drroyspencer.com. Look for some of his many articles discussing the basics of atmospheric physics - the subject in which he received his doctorate.
For the record, I agree that politically AGW is being misused. I remain personally unconvinced that the temperature change will end up being particularly harmful. There is also no reason that the standard of living can’t continue to rise around the world, even if a large reduction in use of fossil fuels is implemented. Solar and wind are practical at this point, and improving in cost. There is also plenty of nuclear energy to be had.
My touchstone for seeing if someone is serious about global warming is whether or not they agree with a massive nuclear electricity buildout, mainly to replace coal generation. Coal is a dirty source of energy whether or not CO2 is a concern.
517
posted on
09/05/2017 4:26:08 AM PDT
by
PreciousLiberty
(Make America Greater Than Ever!)
To: rodguy911
Big problem with that kind of turn. I wouldn't trust any model at this point. You are both on the keys? You both need to think about leaving. The chance of Irma threading the needle between Cuba and Florida and hitting the keys is very real. The last time that happened perfectly was Labor Day 1935. Lowest pressure ever recorded on US soil.
A lot could change so I would not panic, but if you are going to get out, it's probably best to do it early.
518
posted on
09/05/2017 4:28:44 AM PDT
by
palmer
(...if we do not have strong families and strong values, then we will be weak and we will not survive)
To: rodguy911
Take this with a huge grain of salt, just one run. Direct hit on the Keys with a NEN direction, coming back out to sea around the Cape Canaveral area, and making another landfall around the Georgia/South Carolina border. Again, just one run. The importance of these projected models (At five days and beyond) is to pay attention.
When all the models (Around two days out) have a consensus then the areas (Not exact location since 'canes "wobble") the storm is heading to. After 3 days, the spaghetti models are still all over the place.
*Important* pay attention even if there is just one model run that goes to your region. Everyone from LA to NC/Virginia should be paying attention.
519
posted on
09/05/2017 4:29:57 AM PDT
by
rollo tomasi
(Working hard to pay for deadbeats and corrupt politicians.)
To: NonValueAdded
During Mathew we went to Atlanta from Hilton Head. My point is the best course of action, if possible, is to evacuate. Staying put just places you and your family in danger during the storm itself and adverse conditions in the aftermath. Evacuating was the best decision we made.
520
posted on
09/05/2017 4:32:59 AM PDT
by
kabar
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 481-500, 501-520, 521-540 ... 2,081-2,085 next last
Disclaimer:
Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual
posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its
management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the
exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson