Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Thank you for checking in, cll. Please keep us posted when you can.
Irma’s strengthening continues with max winds now of 150 mph - the ‘Strongest’September Atlantic hurricane since Igor 2010......additionally Irma now generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy during her lifetime than did Hurricane Katrina (2005)....While Katrina reached Cat 5, its lifetime was fairly short - only 4 days as a hurricane, and consequently did not have massively high ACE....
IRMAGEDDON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hate to wish it on anyone but am rooting for it to turn North before making the Gulf - Katrina was enough to last a lifetime....
Me too....it’s still too far out to know what it will be for the US coasts....
Well.lets hope not as it looks it could be.
Meteorologist Jim Cantore....out06z models still focused on abrupt turn at ~120hrs(5days) Guidance track errors AVERAGE 225 miles at 5 days. West side just as vulnerable.
Strong winds. Strong pressure. Seems to be tightly wound with a “small” wind field of hurricane strength so far.
Please be considerate of all FReepers who may be in the path of this dangerous storm. Wish-casting is inappropriate for this thread.
My wish is for a sudden, unexpected turn making it a fish storm. But that is not going to happen.
Yep...seems so.....am ‘hopeful’ still that it might turn...
Last year, I flew up to spend Christmas with my mother. Flew into CAK, where they’d already had two inches of snow and the weather was deteriorating. I— with zero experience driving in a snow storm— had a 70 mile drive up into rural NE Ohio. I cancelled my rental car and had a Lyft driver, a lovely coed from UAkron with a 4wd Jeep, drive me up.
It’s important to be honest about the limits of your knowledge and experience and mitigate the risks accordingly. You’re doing the right thing.
plane just measured 932mb
I so stole that!!
I was living in Pass Christian when Katrina ‘hit New Orleans’. Ugh!! Now this one has a bead on me in Florida.
06z GFS nudges ignore east again over FL
The state of FL has an historic website with photographs of Tampa after it got hit by a devastating hurricane around 1922. A 6 mile stretch of Westshore Blvd was completely submerged and just about every house in that area was destroyed.
Does not bode well for Lake O. Just saw the morning WINK meteorologist and he had a pretty grim forecast. He boiled it down to a question of which Florida coast. It’s going to cover a 250 mile wide area.
Not sure what “ignore” means here. Was the 06z GFS a bad run?
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