Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
what did they say?
Yes. Season is about dec thru march/April.
Indeed, and besides, we really didn't have anywhere else to go without leaving FL.
Yay, you’re back!
My cousin in Richmond TX just got back in her house today too. She’s a happy camper now. ServPro is making a mint of money.
We love that area.
We love that area.
91
I found the FL Turnpike. Yikes! Lots of traffic for this time of night. My niece will be headed north from the Clearwater area tomorrow morning.
prayers for them.
Hi there!! You sound exactly like hubs...he keeps saying the SAME thing, about ServPro :)
Amazing to see all of the restoration vans/trucks....many from out of the area...here.
God bless the Cajun Navy, NatGuard, DPS, and ALL responders who’ve rescued and protected our neighborhoods.
Lots of people do. I was playing softball Monday morning talking about what we were going to do Wednesday nite and had no idea I’d be driving up here to escape a hurricane!
Prayers up. Keep us posted.
Love your tag line by the way!!
Stay safe.....
Thanks....
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017
Earlier radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D showed a
concentric eyewall, and observations from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft showed a secondary wind maximum over the northwest
quadrant. These phenomena may be associated with some weakening,
but since the central pressure hasn’t risen much the intensity is
held at 160 kt at this time. Moreover, the concentric eyewall has
become less apparent in recent radar imagery. Considerable
lightning activity has been noted in the eyewall of Irma, which
research has shown to sometimes be a harbinger of weakening.
Notwithstanding, low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the
forecast track of Irma should allow it to remain a very powerful
hurricane during the next several days. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one except at day 5 when
stronger shear should cause more weakening. This forecast is
generally above the intensity model consensus.
Irma continues on a west-northwestward heading at around 14 kt. A
ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic should maintain
this course for the next 48 to 72 hours. Later in the forecast
period a shortwave trough moving into the southeastern United
States is likely to turn the hurricane northwestward to
north-northwestward. There has been a slight eastward shift in
some of the track guidance models, but since the models could shift
back to the west it is prudent to make little change to the
official forecast at this time. In any event, users are reminded
not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.
There’s a hiking lodge and cabins up there. That would be one hell of a mess.
IIRC, it was Camille that arced up from the Gulf Coast and killed a bunch of people in Appalachia before finally heading back out into the Atlantic. Mud slides and horrible flash flooding.
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