Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
I think it may miss Florida this time lol
It's still a timing thing... once the lid comes off the bottle, Irma pops north immediately. But that's why I'm surprised on the model agreement.
Looks like eastern TN might get some. Sure hope not!
They really are scaring people to death down here...
the only place for good forecasting is WeatherBell.com
It is a premium site but the Daily Update and Saturday summary are free..
Joe had Irma going into the Outer banks 10 days ago..
He said it would turn North the only question 10 days ago was where
Gulf
Center of Florida
East Coast of Florida
This morning 90% it would not go up the gulf..
Has it pretty much like the National Hurricane center now
They should have waited longer before scaring everybody
Over here in SWF a lot of people started putting up hurricane shutters to early
I will see what Joe has to say tomorrow..
Looks to me like the East Coast..there starting to evacuate low lying areas
They do not want a repeat of Rita
If that were to play out, then notice the curls at the ends of those lines (up to a week away from now). Those suggest a slowing storm the sits and finally is moved out... after dumping a pile of rain in the Smokies.
That would be bad, too.
Yea... This is a pretty BIG storm.. It’s moving more North than West right now... I think, it continues this path... until something MAKES it change. That’s not happening until it hits the front. So, yea.. I see a sharp North turn in the future, at some time... but, I DON’T see it turning westward between now and then.
It is still headed at 290 degrees, thats more west than north, due north west is 315 degrees.
Not sure what your comment means. The entire peninsula of Florida is within the cone of uncertainty now. Were you in SWFL in 2004? A bunch of your neighbors thought Hurricane Charley would slip right past SWFL on the way to Tampa Bay. It was a chorus of OMG and WTH when Category 4 Charley drove inland at SWFL. NHC response to your neighbors' hollering? "SWFL was always in the cone of uncertainty. Follow the cone, not the center line."
That model could be absolutely devastating.
Though still concerned MSM is presenting false/hyped information.
Does anyone have an idea of the Northbound traffic on 95, the turnpike or 75 out of S. FL?
As a designated shelter, that makes perfect sense.
I guess the difficulty for me was the weren’t requests, they were demands.
However, we would never turn someone desperate out into the storm .
Just looked at the traffic via Google Maps, and 75 has a lot of red in it; 95 a little traffic. I expect tomorrow will be more congested.
What false info? Everything we post here comes from the models, not CNN and mostly not even the Weather Channel.
In terms of hype... yeah: this is a very big and bad storm. Historically severe. I don’t see a problem with scaring people in its path. Worst case is that a bunch of people are evac’d when they didn’t need to be. Sorry.
FL 511 State Twitter
FL 511 I-95 Twitter
FL 511 I-75 Twitter
Hopefully by Friday the state will reverse flow the turnpike - opening up all lanes northbound only.
* “of” the turnpike
Also, here’s link to highway webcams:
http://www.webcamlocator.com/traffic/florida_traffic__webcam_locator.htm
Well, ignore that link. I should have tested the links on the page. Grrr
Maybe it’s a “wobble thing”... but, I thought I saw a little more northward today....
Even so.. the CURRENT path has a northern component. The Projections have a 24 period of near due west. (270)
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