Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Placemarker
I saw that too. Scary...
Seriously? That is the wind speed of an EF5 tornado.
Wow. I have no words.
This is excellent advice, and local news was encouraging use of E-W routes toward inland peninsula, where there are multiple routes North.
Very scary for those in the potential path. Surely, it is the perfect storm.
It almost seems like a Biblical storm.
“225 MPH winds measured about 500 feet above surface”
Mountain houses in Antigua will be erased.
Good luck
Yeah, crazy isn’t it? Mostly cause we just don’t know where yet. Sigh. We’ll have more supplies tomorrow, definitely Thursday.
I gassed up yesterday cause I remember how it gets..
Barbuda is in the worst NE quadrant. However it is no picnic on the other islands.
>>what do people think comes out of the tap?
That’s the stuff that’s in the toilet!
Considering pictures of what I’ve seen the average person living in on many of those islands, just about everything is going to be erased.
I-75 on ramp lined up back to where my folks live in Ft. Myers. they are bugging out tomorrow am via back roads. I hope not too late. Not much I can do now.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
8:00 PM Correction above—forward movement 15 mph.
The way I read that was the eye stays offshore but the stronger winds and surge buzz-saw their way from Biscayne Bay through Miami and halfway up the coast before pulling off-shore somewhat and then slamming in between Augusta, Ga and Hilton Head.
Basically some models now show east flank and some show busting Cuba and Key West and going into the gulf with north gulf coast Florida or panhandle getting the eventual landfall.
Much less consensus than we had 48 hours ago.
Wouldn’t want to be in St. Marteen or St. Barts right now.
I think the BAM variants are rather basic trajectory models; we may be seeing less of them because NOAA recently started using new supercomputers which allow more complex modeling.
Wow. The rain front on that cold front extends from Maine to Texas. Looks like a collision of titans is coming. It has finally lowered our humidity in West Texas.
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