Posted on 04/24/2017 6:59:39 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Only a decade ago, Frances two traditional major parties the conservative Republicans and the Socialists won 57 percent of the vote between them in the first round of the countrys presidential elections. On Sunday, both parties together won less than half that only 26 percent. Emmanuel Macron, the 39-year-old independent who placed first in this years round, declared that the nation had discarded the two once-dominant parties.
Now France will have two weeks of ferocious fighting between the two finalists Macron and the populist National Front leader Marine Le Pen. Supporters of Le Pen note that her 22 percent of the vote was a significant improvement over past National Front showings and predict that a rising tide of disgust against arrogant elites will carry her to victory in the May 7 runoff. Indeed, she did make clear that she offered a fundamental choice between French sovereignty and what she called the forces of globalization and open borders. By contrast, Macron spoke in vague terms about how he stood for French patriotism rather than anti-European nationalism.
No one doubts that Le Pen will add to her support in the second round. But those who believe that she can duplicate the success of Donald Trump and win a surprise victory have to look at basic math. Trump trailed Hillary Clinton only narrowly in Election Day polls. The successful campaign to have Britain leave the European Union also trailed by only a small margin. But in a runoff with Macron, the populist Le Pen trails by an average of more than 20 percentage points. Campaigns can change minds, and polls can be off, but the surge of support Le Pen would need to win on May 7 would be unprecedented.
The reason that Le Pen probably has a ceiling is simple. François Fillon, the conservative who came in third in the first round, with 20 percent, put it simply when he advised his backers to vote for Macron on May 7. The National Fronts history is marked by violence and ignorance, he said. Extremism can only bring unhappiness and division to France. There is no other choice than to vote against the far right.
Only two months ago, Fillon himself was seen as the front-runner for the presidency. An admirer of Margaret Thatcher, he campaigned on free-market themes and promised to reduce the size of the state while still keeping France in the European Union. Philip Turle of Radio France Internationale noted that for the first time in decades, France was receptive to tough messages on security and economic reform.
Then it was revealed that Fillon had hired family members to be his aides in parliament and lied about the work they had done. Even though he found himself under formal investigation for corruption, he refused to leave the race.
If France doesnt engage in real reform of its economy and improve its assimilation policies for immigrants, populists of both the Left and the Right will continue to gain strength.
Many of his supporters drifted to Macron. Although he served as a minister in the government of outgoing Socialist president François Hollande, Macron has promised to remove some of the shackles holding back French innovation and economic growth. Nonetheless, many Fillon supporters are loath to back Macron in the runoff. The clear favorite of media and political elites, Macron has never been elected to office and so has no track record of keeping promises.
But for many Fillon supporters, Le Pens call for an almost total ban on immigration is unrealistic, and her economic views echo left-wing calls for bigger public pensions, protection of the bloated civil service, and more government spending on a variety of programs. Le Pen asks some of the right questions but still has many of the wrong answers, Justine Le Blanc, a French lawyer who largely agrees with the National Front on immigration but thinks the partys views overly simplistic, told me.
Regardless of which outsider wins the French presidency, neither will find governing easy. Macrons En Marche (Forward) party didnt exist even a year ago, and its unclear whether it will be able to elect many candidates in the parliamentary elections scheduled for June. Le Pen would in all likelihood face a parliament dominated by the traditional parties and leaning to the center-right, and it could stand in the way of her plans to hold a referendum on Frances future in Europe.
If Macron wins, which seems likely, European Union leaders will breathe a sigh of relief. But the forces that have roiled Britain and the U.S. in the last year arent going away. If France doesnt engage in real reform of its economy and improve its assimilation policies for immigrants, populists of both the Left and the Right will continue to gain strength and will force a new confrontation with the nations establishment sooner rather than later.
It was a brilliant strategy that the Power Elites have executed. A candidate running as a Socialist could not win, so they had Macron leave the Socialist Party, start his own party, and call himself a “centrist.” After the election, he can either rejoin the Socialists or make a deal with the Republicans, if they are the majority party.
Fund in 2016, said that Iowa would be Donald Trumps kryptonite.
Fund was/is a National Reviewer Master Never Trumpster. He was wrong last year about Trump and is probably wrong Le Pen!
Iowa was not Donald Trumps kryptonite, after all. Back in the halcyon days before the New Hampshire primary, pundits of all stripes were eager for a theory that could explain how Donald Trump would lose in the Republican race even though he had been leading in the polls for months. One was that Iowa would be the Trump killer. Because of the states caucus system, Trumps lack of a ground game would hurt him there. And if he lost in Iowa, then his luster would fade and hed quickly diminish.
A leading advocate of this hypothesis was Bill Kristol, who predicted in late December that when Trump loses Iowa, the mystique disappears, [and] hes just another candidate. Writing in National Review, John Fund made a similar prophesy, arguing that, Losing Iowa Could Be Trumps Kryptonite. Variations of this theme could also be found in Vox and elsewhere.
https://newrepublic.com/minutes/129596/iowa-not-donald-trumps-kryptonite-all
Yeah I’ve heard that! .... think the Dreyfus Affair & J’Accuse!
Hmmm. When Sarko was up for re-election, a bunch of his defenders on here argued that it was "France's last chance". Seems they've been getting quite a lot of "last chances" lately.
Reminds me of how 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 were ALL supposedly "the most important Presidential election of our lifetime"
The next election is always the most important.
Interesting article, from an source I wouldn’t expect to print anything worthwhile
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/01/emmanuel-macron-french-voters-marine-le-pen
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