Posted on 04/24/2017 6:59:39 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Only a decade ago, France’s two traditional major parties — the conservative Republicans and the Socialists — won 57 percent of the vote between them in the first round of the country’s presidential elections. On Sunday, both parties together won less than half that — only 26 percent. Emmanuel Macron, the 39-year-old independent who placed first in this year’s round, declared that the nation had “discarded” the two once-dominant parties.
Now France will have two weeks of ferocious fighting between the two finalists — Macron and the populist National Front leader Marine Le Pen. Supporters of Le Pen note that her 22 percent of the vote was a significant improvement over past National Front showings and predict that a rising tide of disgust against “arrogant elites” will carry her to victory in the May 7 runoff. Indeed, she did make clear that she offered “a fundamental choice” between French sovereignty and what she called the “forces of globalization and open borders.” By contrast, Macron spoke in vague terms about how he stood for French “patriotism” rather than “anti-European nationalism.”
No one doubts that Le Pen will add to her support in the second round. But those who believe that she can duplicate the success of Donald Trump and win a surprise victory have to look at basic math. Trump trailed Hillary Clinton only narrowly in Election Day polls. The successful campaign to have Britain leave the European Union also trailed by only a small margin. But in a runoff with Macron, the populist Le Pen trails by an average of more than 20 percentage points. Campaigns can change minds, and polls can be off, but the surge of support Le Pen would need to win on May 7 would be unprecedented.
The reason that Le Pen probably has a ceiling is simple. François Fillon, the conservative who came in third in the first round, with 20 percent, put it simply when he advised his backers to vote for Macron on May 7. “The National Front’s history is marked by violence and ignorance,” he said. “Extremism can only bring unhappiness and division to France. There is no other choice than to vote against the far right.”
Only two months ago, Fillon himself was seen as the front-runner for the presidency. An admirer of Margaret Thatcher, he campaigned on free-market themes and promised to reduce the size of the state while still keeping France in the European Union. Philip Turle of Radio France Internationale noted that for the first time in decades, France was receptive to tough messages on security and economic reform.
Then it was revealed that Fillon had hired family members to be his aides in parliament and lied about the work they had done. Even though he found himself under formal investigation for corruption, he refused to leave the race.
If France doesn’t engage in real reform of its economy and improve its assimilation policies for immigrants, populists of both the Left and the Right will continue to gain strength.
Many of his supporters drifted to Macron. Although he served as a minister in the government of outgoing Socialist president François Hollande, Macron has promised to remove some of the shackles holding back French innovation and economic growth. Nonetheless, many Fillon supporters are loath to back Macron in the runoff. The clear favorite of media and political elites, Macron has never been elected to office and so has no track record of keeping promises.
But for many Fillon supporters, Le Pen’s call for an almost total ban on immigration is unrealistic, and her economic views echo left-wing calls for bigger public pensions, protection of the bloated civil service, and more government spending on a variety of programs. “Le Pen asks some of the right questions but still has many of the wrong answers,” Justine Le Blanc, a French lawyer who largely agrees with the National Front on immigration but thinks the party’s views overly simplistic, told me.
Regardless of which outsider wins the French presidency, neither will find governing easy. Macron’s En Marche (Forward) party didn’t exist even a year ago, and it’s unclear whether it will be able to elect many candidates in the parliamentary elections scheduled for June. Le Pen would in all likelihood face a parliament dominated by the traditional parties and leaning to the center-right, and it could stand in the way of her plans to hold a referendum on France’s future in Europe.
If Macron wins, which seems likely, European Union leaders will breathe a sigh of relief. But the forces that have roiled Britain and the U.S. in the last year aren’t going away. If France doesn’t engage in real reform of its economy and improve its assimilation policies for immigrants, populists of both the Left and the Right will continue to gain strength and will force a new confrontation with the nation’s establishment — sooner rather than later.
And also wouldn’t we want to see from more direct sources what National Front wants?
We agree brother...
So anyhow. France is currently atheistic by virtually all measures.
Le Pen is a Catholic, so that’s a step past atheist. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. We’d never guess where Donald Trump wanted to go by looking at his legacy Presbyterian church. He has gone leaps and bounds past where that church is.
Likely Macron will win, but narrowly. Continued violence by Islamic extremists could tip the election to Le Pen. Neither candidate will do much to help France’s economic doldrums. Le Pen would do much to stop the inflow of immigrants who are sapping the social welfare system and would come down hard on terrorists, but her economic policies would be little different than the current socialist President Holland. Macron is a euro socialist who also has little interest in bringing free market ideas to France. I doubt Macron would stem the flow of immigration or bring a hard line against terrorists. He too has the naive opinion that Muslims can integrate into French society. The glory that was France is sadly gone.
That's exactly how I see it. Le Pen has absolutely no chance. Too bad for France.
RE: How is Macron an outsider? He was a member of Hollande’s administration.
Well, Macron left Holande’s party in August 2016.
Macron declared that he would run in the election under the banner of En Marche, a centrist ( the press calls it that ) political movement he founded in April 2016 before he resigned.
RE: Le Pen is a Catholic, so that’s a step past atheist.
For those who don’t know, Macron Was raised in a non-religious family. However, he was baptized a Roman Catholic at his own request at age 12. That shows some amount of faith on his part.
Whether he has sustained it since then, I do not know.
The party as founded and directed by Ms LePen’s father was as you say anti-Semitic, etc. She supposedly purged that element from the party. However its France where your choice is usually what’s the least bad.
I think the cheering on this site is more for the anti-EU part of her campaign then anything else. Warts and all a win for her would probably be good for France in particular & Europe in general.
Did Macron find his new Mommy at age 15 or did Brigitte Macron see the potential in Macron at that age and 'take him on' as her power trip? "He can do anything with my backing. The sky's the limit." Is she similar to Hillary Clinton in this regard? Is she going to run next? We don't know much about her other than she divorced her husband and three kids, and married Macron in 2007, when he was 29 and she 53. Her eldest son is two years older than Macron.
From: Brigitte Macron, Emmanuel’s Wife: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know Interesting read:
Macron: "If I’m elected — no, sorry, when we are elected — she will be there, with a role, and a place," Macron said on March 8, reports Bloomberg. "I owe her a lot, she helped make me who I am." Is she Macron's Jarrett?
"If Macron wins, don’t expect Trogneux to suddenly stop playing a major role in his life at work. Alexis Kohler, his chief of staff when he was the economy minister, told Bloomberg that Trogneux attended agenda meetings. “She is a woman who’s involved in the life of her husband,” Kohler said."
Just looking at him, he looks like a spoiled elite 'never done hard work' type of guy. He has the usual entitled look, probably had the usual socialist/Marxist education and is woefully uneducated and uninformed about Islam.
Pray the French wake up and elect Marine Le Pen.
Nope I consider the socialist, once Soviet puppet or Ethiopia. They have been valiantly fighting against the Somali savages.
But as the "French Tony Blair" he doesn't fit into any of the usual boxes, and they can portray him as an "outsider."
It certainly helps that he bolted from the Socialists and founded his own party.
Lately, though, it seems like half the candidates have started their own parties and could pose as outsiders (Fillon, Mélenchon, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, etc.).
He’s an opportunist with no core values.
They said the same thing about Tony Blair.
Like Blair, though, he's more acceptable to the EU and to our own Permanent Government.
Two outsiders?? No, only 1 outsider Macron is an insider...(He sounds like the French version of Obama).
Do you work for le monde? Been hearing the same crap since 1997 there first thing I was there. The jews have all left because of FN policies BS. The one thing FN has been is correct about jospin juppe cheraque Hollande. Obviously racist. Vote FN France you know you want to
Sorry the truth is most everyone in France is anti-Semitic regardless of party this is canard issue.
Some say Fillon is more conservative than Sark, they keep calling him “Catholic” and “Thatcherite”. I’d have voted for him. He was targeted with a fake scandal, disgusting, obviously he was too conservative for them to tolerate. In any case both were more conservative than the a-hole who was supposed to win, Alain Juppe. Of course Fillon has now endorsed Merdehead Macaroon, and a poll shows his voters prefer Macaroon by 41% to 33%, highlighting why LePen can’t win unless something shifts dramatically.
Macron BTW is not an “outsider”, he was the g**damn Socialist party Minister of the Economy. If GD Larry Summers ran for US President as an independent would he be an “outsider”? No.
I have issues with FN and they are not conservative, they’re pro-welfare and protectionist stances are disastrous. But this is not a choice, Macaroon’s position on Islam is for France to remain bent over a table with it’s pants around it’s ankles.
The French won’t be French a generation from now if Le Pen doesn’t win. They will be Islamic. Their descendants will swear allegiance to Allah.
True but most French don’t seem to care.
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