Posted on 03/28/2017 5:19:25 AM PDT by drewh
Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch’s path to 60 votes is rapidly closing — setting the stage for a nuclear showdown in the Senate as soon as next week.
Senior Democratic sources are now increasingly confident that Gorsuch can’t clear a filibuster, saying his ceiling is likely mid- to upper-50s on the key procedural vote. That would mark the first successful filibuster of a Supreme Court nominee since Abe Fortas for chief justice in the 1960s.
In the latest ominous sign for the federal judge from Colorado, Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) said Monday he’ll oppose Gorsuch on the cloture vote, which is expected late next week. More than a decade ago, Nelson helped break a filibuster of now-Justice Samuel Alito.
If Democrats successfully filibuster Gorsuch, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has heavily telegraphed that he will invoke the so-called nuclear option to unilaterally change Senate rules with a simple majority vote. And Republicans are confident they’ll have the votes to do it, even as wary as many senators are about forever altering the deliberative nature of the chamber.
“We’re not going to be treated by a double standard,” Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) said in an interview on Monday. “We’ll give our Democratic colleagues a chance to see if they provide the 60 votes; if they do, it’s a moot point. And if they don’t, as I said before, we will confirm him one way or the other.”
Gorsuch got through his marathon confirmation hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee without any obvious gaffe or misstep. But Democrats said he stonewalled the committee when pressed repeatedly about his judicial philosophy, and many have since announced they’ll vote to block his nomination.
170324_trump_staff_gty_1160.jpg WHITE HOUSE White House looks to rack up wins after health care calamity By TARA PALMERI So far, only one Senate Democrat has firmly said he’s willing to help advance Gorsuch’s nomination to a final confirmation vote: Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a moderate who is seeking another meeting with the judge this week to weigh his credentials.
“I’ve always been for cloture,” Manchin told Politico when asked whether he would vote to advance Gorsuch’s nomination, even if he ultimately opposes him. “I’ve always been, basically, ‘I’m not going to filibuster.’”
But several other Democrats on Monday were much less definitive.
Sen. Jon Tester of Montana said he is “still undecided,” as did Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia said he’s continuing to study Gorsuch’s record and that the threat of the nuclear option wouldn’t influence his choice. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), who like Nelson voted to break the filibuster on Alito, said Gorsuch’s stance on privacy rights would be a central factor in her still-unmade decision on confirmation.
“I’m reviewing the hearings,” said Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), who is facing parochial pressure to back Gorsuch because the judge hails from Denver.
Even Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), who told a local reporter in Vermont over the weekend that he is “not inclined to filibuster,” quickly walked that back in a series of tweets Monday amid a flurry of constituent calls organized by liberal groups. The former Judiciary Committee chairman said Gorsuch will be blocked unless the judge “provides real answers” to written questions for the record. Those written responses from Gorsuch are expected back to the committee sometime midweek.
The nuclear battle could erupt as early as next Thursday. The Senate Judiciary Committee will vote to advance Gorsuch’s nomination on April 3 after Democrats successfully secured a one-week delay in the committee. The earliest McConnell could file cloture is Tuesday, April 4, which would tee up a Thursday vote to end the filibuster on Gorsuch’s nomination.
While Republicans are still publicly hopeful that eight Democrats will allow Gorsuch to proceed to a final up-or-down confirmation vote, they’re already preparing for the last ditch, nuclear scenario if — or when — Democrats mount the first successful party-line filibuster in history.
POLITICO Huddle A preview of the day's congressional news — in your inbox. Email Your email… Sign Up By signing up you agree to receive email newsletters or alerts from POLITICO. You can unsubscribe at any time. GOP leaders remain publicly and privately confident that Gorsuch will be confirmed to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia before senators leave for the two-week Easter recess in early April. And institutional Republicans long skittish about deploying the nuclear option are now much less nervous about using the provocative procedural maneuver.
“When they’re in charge, they grab power,” Sen. Lindsey Graham said of Democrats. The South Carolina Republican said he would support the nuclear option as a “last resort.”
If Democrats successfully filibuster Gorsuch, Graham added, it would say “that qualifications will no longer matter. There’s no way you can argue that this man’s not qualified. He got the highest rating that the American Bar Association can give somebody. So it means that ideology matters.”
Even Susan Collins (R-Maine), who like Graham is among three remaining senators from the “Gang of 14” that helped defuse a brewing nuclear battle over judicial nominations a dozen years ago, left the door open to backing the nuclear option.
“I would be very disheartened if we had to take that step because I’m a strong believer in the rules of the institution,” Collins said in an interview Monday. “But clearly, it would be unfair if we cannot get a straight up-or-down vote on Judge Gorsuch.”
Democrats are under heavy pressure to oppose Gorsuch from liberal activists emboldened by Friday’s collapse of the GOP effort to repeal Obamacare. The party’s unified opposition during the health care fight has helped left-leaning activists sell their message on Gorsuch: Sticking together on a filibuster can add more political momentum heading into next year’s midterms.
Liberal groups that have fought both Gorsuch and the GOP’s Obamacare repeal bid are now homing in on the judge, cheering the growing number of Democrats declaring their opposition as they plan for a nationwide Supreme Court protest on Saturday.
Sen. Coons on Gorsuch: 'I doubt he is going to get 60 votes' Sen. Coons: Republican nuclear option to confirm Gorsuch is ‘tragic’ By KELSEY SUTTON NARAL Pro-Choice America President Ilyse Hogue described the Republican collapse on health care as “obviously a good thing” for Gorsuch opponents. But Hogue expects the GOP to work even harder this week to persuade Democrats to back down from a possible nuclear showdown with McConnell.
“The Trump administration needs a win” to avoid a lackluster first 100 days in office, Hogue said, while conservatives “who held their noses and got behind Trump’s candidacy for this reason specifically — this is absolutely the Holy Grail to them — those are the converging forces that show me they’re going to double down.”
Still, liberals have reason to believe that the tide has turned in their direction, even if a successful filibuster forces McConnell to push a historic change to Senate rules. Several anti-Gorsuch activists question whether McConnell locked down the 51 votes needed to quash the minority’s power to filibuster Supreme Court nominees.
And the Democratic base is feeling good about a minority leader whose early moves had some on the left worried he might be too willing to accommodate the White House. “Schumer has stepped up,” one prominent progressive said.
“Seeing Trump give up the moment going gets tough stiffened Democrats’ spines to fight hard for their principles on Gorsuch,” MoveOn.org Washington director Ben Wikler said. “It’s clear that if Democrats are united around popular principles, and fight back hard, they can win.”
I am just LOVING this!
Even when a few, somewhat sober, Dem Senators begin to talk about a little bit of compromise, a little bit of reasoned and logical behavior, the Leftist groups organize calls to them and force them to become as batshit crazy as those Leftists are themselves.
GOOD! Let there be an attempted filibuster - it’ll not only show the Dems for who they are, but the filibuster rule will be killed. When that old bat, RBG, decides to retire, strokes out or dies (and I’m rooting for “retire” as of July 1), then Trump will be able to nominate a judicial Genghis Khan and the Dems won’t be able to do anything but stamp their feet and wail about it. Furthermore, the hated (by many) filibuster rule will be history - a rule that allows 41 Senators to hold everyone in the nation hostage...a more anti-democratic rule than perhaps any other among the official (i.e. public) rules that our government uses.
Please, Dems, DON’T throw us in that briar patch. [wink, wink].
“It’s called “going Reid”.”
Time to stop playing with these people. The old-time, civil rules of politics have long since become not just quaint relics of a better time, but more than that they have become chains of slavery binding the GOP to play by a set of rules that the Dems have never had any intention of abiding by. Time to play by THEIR rules.
Maybe they should announce they are giving Schumer their lowest rating.
McConnell has no guts. He should save us all time and money and invokve the nuke option immediately. Why wait for Dems. they are only stalling and obstructing. Do it now.
Oh, come on, now!You do understand that Democrats make the rules to suit themselves, and expect that the Republicans will abide by them.
Reid didn’t have any SCOTUS nominees to confirm while he was in the majority and making the rules - so he “retained" the filibuster for SCOTUS nominees.
Now the shoe is on the other foot; the Republicans have the majority and the filibuster is a problem for Republicans. But as you well know, sauce for the Democrat goose is never to be sauce for the Republican gander; the one immutable rule is that it would be wrong for a Republican to change the rules.
Even tho Hillary’s running mate, arrogantly assuming that the Democrat would win the election both of the Senate and of the WH, warned that after the Democrats won they would not leave the filibuster in place for SCOTUS nominees to their own disadvantage.
Devos, for example, was not filibustered was she? She won on a straight majority vote.
She was not filibustered, because several years ago, the Democrats and Harry Reid did the “nuclear option” for lower court judges and other presidential nominees who need Senate confirmation. So filibustering was a moot point for Trump’s cabinet nominees.
When the Democrats did the nuclear option to do away with filibustering presidential nominees, it was left intact for only Supreme Court nominees.
Is there some rule that says they must declare a filibuster before voting begins?
See #47
Should have pinged you to it
You're assuming that McTurtle will be true to his word and actually pull the trigger on the nuke option. I'm not so sure he will.
Good question. As I understand it, they call for a vote for the end to debate, and if that vote fails, then the filibuster is in effect. I think at that point, someone, perhaps the parliamentarian, declares that the issue of the Gorsuch nomination is in filibuster status.
If the vote to end debate gets at least 60 votes, then they proceed to a final vote on the Gorsuch nomination.
Everyone needs to remember that it was McConnell who held up the nomination of Merrick Garland, turning the Supreme Court into a major election issue, which may have pushed Trump over the top on November 8th. I will give him the benefit of the doubt this time.
I never knew that anyone believed that he would get 60 votes.
The 60 vote requirement is needed to end a filibuster. The Senate, in, IIRC the mid 70's, cooked up this "procedural filibuster" bullchit. All this is is a group of Senators expressing their intent to filibuster, and whatever they are doing gets shelved so they can go on with other stuff.
It's hokey, and entirely consistent with the way the Senate has fallen apart since the 17A negated the whole purpose of the body.
But when do they have to declare their hokey filibuster? I assume before any vote begins. They cannot do it mid-vote. Right?
Yep, they tell the majority leader that they’re going to filibuster and the ML does the rest.
So it’s easy for McConnell to turn to the nuke.
A filibuster-by-declaration must be declared before a vote.
Your absolutely correct it’s all about revenge.
Crush them to dust to be blown away by their fetid yelping and whining,
A filibuster is a refusal to end debate and “call the question.” If the vote never occurs, you never lose. The cloture vote exists, on the issue of “calling the question” - and a cloture vote can be called any time (after, IIRC, a preset minimum time). But the cloture vote fails if you don’t get 61 votes.
So, anything that goes to vote is by simple majority.
The vote can be held up by talking nonstop before the vote.
What’s it called when they limit each speaker’s time?
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