Posted on 03/23/2017 6:26:26 PM PDT by NRx
President Trump delivered an ultimatum to House Republicans on Thursday night: Vote to approve the measure to overhaul the nation’s health-care system on the House floor Friday, or reject it and the president will move on to his other legislative priorities.
The president signaled that the time for negotiations was over with rank-and-file Republicans who were meeting late at night on Capitol Hill to try to find common ground on the embattled package crafted by House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.).
The move was a high-risk gamble for the president and speaker, who have both invested significant political capital in passing legislation that would rewrite the 2010 Affordable Care Act. For Trump, who campaigned as a skilled negotiator capable of forging a good deal on behalf of Americans, it could either vindicate or undercut one of his signature claims. If the measure fails, it would mean that Obamacare — something that congressional Republicans have railed against for seven years — would remain in place.
“Disastrous #Obamacare has led to higher costs & fewer options. It will only continue to get worse! We must #RepealANDReplace. #PassTheBill,” Trump tweeted from his official White House account as the meeting was wrapping up Thursday night.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Politics is like a tug of war. If we want to get the flag right of center we need to have some people on our side pulling as hard as they possibly can. That doesn't mean we're going to get everything or everyone we want, but at least the flag has been moving in the right direction and is clearly on our side at this point.
I know your name from years of posts on FR.
Senate rules are pretty powerful things. They don’t typically change without overwhelming votes. I suggest time spent with the filibuster wiki. All the tweaks and modifications to it over decades show what a major effort it is to do major things to the rules.
It’s important to have some sort of memory of the intricate maneuvers that went on 2009/10. There was talk by the far left of ignoring the Parliamentarian then, too. Reid generally didn’t do it. Before the Parliamentarian even entered the discussion, it was clear the left wing firebrands in the House demanding single payer NHS style bill were not going to get support from Dem moderates in the Senate. Losing even a single one and they would drop under 60. So they downshifted to Obamacare and struggled to get it through, too.
There’s really nothing particularly different going on today. The same issues and constraints are in play. The only difference really is Ryan is saving time by having seen Pelosi’s flailing around. He knows the final product has to get through the Senate, so his product doesn’t look very right wing.
As for not thinking there are 50 votes in the Senate, I was talking about killing the Filibuster rule. I don’t think the GOP wants to do that, and maybe rightly.
For the final bill, assuming emergence from the House today, Reconciliation needs 50 votes and that’s just barely on the edge of doable. The Dems had a much bigger pad in 2010. We will maybe lose Collins and McCain (we will CERTAINLY lose McCain if we try to kill the Filibuster), but I suspect that’s all. Collins could be bought with some big projects for Maine.
Interesting point about the Sequester. It is in its out years now, but I think you were actually referring to the reality that the internal scoring of Ryan’s original plan was going to show $300+ billion in deficit reduction, which could be spent elsewhere (infrastructure) and also fund tax cuts. “Fund tax cuts” is never a popular conservative phrase, but the meaning is clear. To achieve neutrality deficit-wise, the Ryan numbers were going to offset other plans.
I’m sure the Wall Street types want a tax cut and infrastructure stimulus regardless of deficit, but a House caucus about to be required to approve a debt ceiling increase is not going to be happy with that.
:: Politics is like a tug of war ::
Harse-munnahr!
Under POTUS-DJT, politics is now a conflict of wills; each wanting to say that ^their^ branch is the “will of the people”.
Who put the Pubbies into a majority of both the executive and legislative branch...? (Can you say say, THE POPULACE)?
Trump should claim an independent party status and begin the “shew-fly” practice.
The legislature needs to FOCUS and get financials done while the Executive...well...executes.
Did you get your check from Ryan already?
It is not now or ever been a binary choice like Ryan would have you believe. There are several ways to get around KKK Byrd's rule none of which Ryan or Mitch have brought up. The problem is that the Uniparty has so dominated the Conservatives that you are beginning to sympathize with the Uniparty.
Rule 19 can be used to push past any barrier and at least a few Senator know that. The Vice President can actually do his job as President of the Senate where he can overrule any decision the unelected parliamentarian pretends is the right decision.
You might have noticed that during the Clinton impeachment that the Supreme Court Justice presided over the Senate where all are required to take a different oath. That idiot Judge sat there and let an unelected parliamentarian set the precedent for that fiasco when it reality it was entirely up to him. He failed miserably.
The of course the can always invoke the Reed rule and set aside the idiotic unconstitutional Byrd Rule but then they might actually have to do something.
“I’m a healthcare attorney who specializes in reimbursement.”
No offense but your career looks to be a result of an out-of-control gubmint bureaucracy gone, well, out-of-control. Healthcare attorney? WTF is that? THis is why we need free market to determine so that we don’t have bureaucrats sticking their noses in my damn health.
how ‘bout black Lung disease and miners claims against the mine owners?
I actually got a hospital in coal country that was not a participant in federal black lung to become a participant in federal black lung. Everyone made money.
(Black Lung is actually technically a Workers Compensation program, not a health insurance program. It’s a subtle but important difference).
I don’t do class action suits against mines. And I don’t really understand the question anyway.
Ryan has a burning ambition to run in 2020. He’s going to do everything in his power to hobble Trump in anticipation of that.
Under normal circumstances it is difficult to predict the outcome of elections that are four years out. But I will predict that Ryan’s chances of winning anything outside of Wisconsin are nonexistent. Ryan owns this Obamacare replacement debacle; it should be tied around his neck and he should be thrown overboard.
My wife and I have Christian Healthcare Ministries for our Healthcare coverage needs. It is allowed under Obamacare and is by far the best solution for us. NO allowances were made under the Ryancare plan to help preserve Healthcare Ministries. It is just one more good example of how tone deaf these deep state GOP idiots were when writing this thing up.
They have already blinked today on the vote because this albatross was going down. And good riddance, let it rest in peace. The whole darned Obamacare mess needs to be repealed with the same exact wording that they sent to President Obama previously. That is what the voters demanded of these jokers and instead they made up Obamacare 2 which was every bit as bad and worse when you look into some of the details.
“how ‘bout black Lung disease and miners claims against the mine owners?”
Did the mine owners force them to work? No. That should be all that is needed to resolve that “issue”.
If I heard Representative Schiff correctly just now, the Dems plan to repeatedly disrupt the Republican majority in order to win control of the House in 2018. Then, they will use their majority to impeach President Trump, using the totally fake “news” about Trump’s “Russian Coordination”.
Schiff was very smug about it.
He thinks Dems can stop President Trump’s programs to Make America Great Again by inducing a few so-called “conservatives” to march with Nancy Pelosi, Maxine Waters and the other hard-core Dems.
You may ask what “conservative” would be so foolish as to prefer “virtue-signalling” to doing the hard work required by patriotism.
I know there are lots of DUmmies infesting this thread now. I gather from the comments that a few “quislings” are prepared to march beside them to stop Trump...
I’m going to make money whether Obamacare stays, goes, or gets modified. I made money before it. (More actually because self-pay accounts become incredibly more complex afterwards).
Unless we get rid of private insurance and Medicare, I’m still personally the same regardless of what the gubmint does.
The only thing that threatens my livelihood is single payer.
I do a seminar on insurance reimbursement. I have a scenario where 18 people are standing on a dock doing different tasks and all are injured. All 15 are taken to the same hospital, and all 18 have their medical bills paid in different manners. I could probably pull that out to 30 if I wanted to, but it get unwieldy at that point.
I have no doubt that the Dems want Trump out before his 4 years is up.
But if Trump burns the Republicans in the House to the ground at the end of this debacle, he’s going to need allies. And as a populist nationalist, he’s certainly not beholden to the Rs.
The danger in electing Trump was always very simple. He’s not bound by any type of real political philosophy aside from “making America great.” It doesn’t matter who make the deals that make America great. Ryan, Pelosi, or future Speaker Chelsea Clinton.
What is stopping Trump from cutting bait with the Repubs and running to the Dems with a list of deals at any moment.
He has no party loyalty. He has nothing in common philosophically with Ryan and McConnell. And frankly, these sound like Democratic policies:
1. Taking care of people/not letting anyone die in the street
2. Infrastructure
3. Repeal of free trade deals
4. Maternity benefits
The Dems can give him nearly everything he wants on those four items. And probably give him half of what he wants on immigration and tax reform.
The animosity with Trump from the Dems is deeply personal, not philosophical necessarily.
Nothing in your post refutes what I said.
If this fails, I’m not sure what the next move for Ryan and Trump is.
The House caucus is going to be pretty testy regardless of this. I guess it could be fractured.
I don’t completely understand the rules here, but my understanding is that you had do Obamacare reform first in order for future tax cuts to be “revenue neutral,” based on whatever Chinese algebra they do to figure that out.
And you aren’t going to be able to do much of anything - particularly infrastructure without raising the debt ceiling.
It wouldn’t surprise me if this led to the end of Ryan’s speakership. But they had to beg him to take the job 18 months ago.
I have no earthly idea where the next one would come from. Trump certainly won’t back anyone from the Freedom Caucus. That means a moderate (who the Freedom Caucus will knife) or careerist (who Trump’s base will hate).
I’m fairly certain that under a Parliamentary system, we would be at the no confidence point right now.
It seemed to me the Republics couldn’t put anybody up to compete for the seat. I’ve said for a long time, we’re pushing the pubs right, and we’ve achieved majorities, but it takes even longer to get our people into leadership. Have to keep flooding the zone with right wingers.
I wonder who’s hand is up that old woman’s butt. She couldn’t possibly operate politically on her own.
Ryan still doesn’t have the votes.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/23/politics/trump-health-care-latest/index.html
Pretty much all of what you said is in play.
Revenue or deficit neutrality has always been something one could wave a hand of dismissal at by trying “Oh, you idiots don’t factor in the spectacular gains in economic this or that when you cut taxes”, or you can dismiss it with CBO is never neutral, they will always hate conservative blah blah.
In a world where the Federal Reserve created 4+ Trillion dollars via Quantitative Ease (that’s 25% of GDP, in about 6 yrs), it’s probable that one doesn’t really need to worry about budget arithmetic. Which is why the Obamacare will Implode crowd are just delusional. It’s fully funded in the budget, with inflation indexing, and no way to stop it without 60 votes or Ryan’s bill for Reconciliation. The fully funding mechanism will grow and consume money, but who really cares if you can create money with QE. Essentially it CAN’T implode. The Fed will stop any systemic threats. About 99% of Congress doesn’t understand what the Fed did, so they think they have a sanctuary to retreat to (letting it implode).
And yeah, precisely, Ryan didn’t want the job. It was Paul Ryan that maneuvered Obama into the Sequester and slowed govt spending while the Dems had a sitting popular president. Genius.
He took the job because no other member of any ideology could get a majority. Only he could. That will likely remain so.
White House saying vote is still on for 3:30pm.
Well done President Trump! By calling Ryan’s bluff and being willing to walk away he creates an incredibly strong negotiating position.
It proves that the President is not going to play GOPe games and is willing to walk away if necessary.
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