Onward marches the Great Pause Global temperature update

Lord Monkton Foundation ^ | recently | Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

[Candor7]

Since October 1996 there has been no global warming at all

(Fig. 1 ){see at link]

. This month’s RSS temperature plot push es up the period without any global warming from 18 years 1 month to 18 years 2 months (indeed, very nearly 18 years 3 months)

. Will this devastating chart be display ed anywhere at the Lima conference? Don’t bet on it.

Figure 1 . The least - squares linear - regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no globa l warming for 18 years 2 month s since October 1996. The hiatus period of 1 8 years 2 month s , or 21 8 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub - zero trend.

What will the chart look like this time next year, at the beginning of the Paris world - government conference, at which the Treaty of Copenhagen will be dusted off and nodd ed through by the scientifically illiterate national negotiating delegates of almost 200 nations, ending the freedom and democracy of the West and putting absolute economic and political power in the hands of the grim secretariat of the UN climate conventi on?

When the November 2015 RSS data are available, how many years and months of zero global warming will have occurred? Enter our friendly competition by putting your best estimate in comments. For guidance, at the December 2012 Doha conference I was banned from UN climate yadayadathons for life for the grave sin of telling the truth that there had been no global warming for 16 years. And an el Nino of unknown magnitude is expected during the boreal winter, followed by a compensating la Nina..........

[Candor7]

This is an excellent non-consensual science paper on the myth of global warming.

We need to be up on this stuff as the Donald begins dismantling the EPA.

[palmer]

Article is from 2014. The warming since that article was written was from El Nino

Without counting El Ninos there is a small trend over the satellite record. And the flattening is still there as Moncton would probably point out with current data. A better person to have around to speak about this is Judy Curry, a lukewarmer.

JC message to the alarmed scientist/advocates:

Get over it, your side lost. Changes of Presidential administrations occur every 4 or 8 years, often with changes in political parties.

Get busy and shore up your scientific arguments; I suspect that argument from consensus won’t sway many minds in the Trump administration.

Overt activism and climate policy advocacy by climate scientists will not help your ’cause’; leave such advocacy to the environmental groups.

Behave like a scientist, and don’t build elaborate conspiracy theories based on vague conflicting signals from the Trump administration. Stop embarrassing yourselves; wait for the evidence.

More at https://judithcurry.com/2016/12/15/the-latest-climate-conspiracy-theory/#more-22599

[justa-hairyape]

Everyone knew the El Nino would halt the pause, what is most important is what comes after El Nino. For example this.

Most of that El Nino heat was blown out of the Pacific Ocean and is either gone to space or represented by the heavy snows around the world.

[Jack Hammer]

No, no, no!

The author clearly doesn’t understand.

If it gets warmer, it’s proof of global warming.

If it gets colder, it’s proof of global warming.

And if nothing changes, well, then.... it’s proof of global warming.

Now give us a fat government grant to study this serious problem before we all dieeeeee!

[cweese]

We’re experiencing a nice shot of global warming here in Austin this morning...temp of 23F with 13F windchill at 7am. The high temp yesterday was 75.

[txrefugee]

The high in Denver yesterday was 3, breaking a record that had stood for over a hundred years. Maybe Al Gore was there for a global warming conference.

[central_va]

I like that line form the movie "Planes, Trains and Automobiles". Driving by a bank the sign out front said 0^o. Freezing, Steve Martin and John Candy are huddle in the back of a pick and one of them says "What's the temperature?". The response was "There isn't one". LOL.

[normbal]

With all that polar vortex cold reaching deep into our homes and wallets extracting as much heat and wealth as the market will bear you’d think the Church of Anthropogenic Global Warming would, in a word (or acronym) just STFU. But no. They’re still at it. England’s Lord Monckton has met and rebuked them at every step, as have several tens of thousands of climate scientists. Rest easy, there’s NOTHING humans are doing to the planet, the atmosphere, “Gaia” (I actually LIKE that name, ‘cause there’s a GUY in there) to alter its climate or weather. Imagine climate as a train with the combined mass of the solar system running on tracks laid down billions of years ago guided through the physics and interactions between our planets, moon and sun’s composition and phases and all these self-important “global warmingistas” are running alongside it saying THEY are going to change its course. One more time: there AIN’T any “man-made global warming or climate change.” Now go turn down your thermostat. You’ll thank me when the extra money will help cover summer’s electric bills.

[hawg-farmer - FR..October 1998]

End Ordovician, 444 million years ago, 86% of species lost.

Late Devonian, 375 million years ago, 75% of species lost.

End Permian, 251 million years ago, 96% of species lost.

End Triassic, 200 million years ago, 80% of species lost.

End Cretaceous, 66 million years ago, 76% of all species lost.

YIKES!

[eyeamok]

Thank God the SUN as nothing to do with Global Warming or Warming of the planet in any way, otherwise the upcoming “Maunder Minimum” might ave an impact on the Planet.

[Covenantor]

Who was tabulating ALL the species 444 million years ago to derive extinction and survival ratios?

[p. henry]

San Diego is in great shape. Walked to the grocery store in shorts and t-shirt yesterday. Attended neighborhood cul-de-sac party with grandson last night. Headed for San Antonio tomorrow. I expect it may be a shade cooler there.

[palmer]

or represented by the heavy snows around the world.

The snow came early to Siberia along with some of the coldest anomalies ever recorded. I often read this site to keep track of NH weather: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[Steve_Seattle]

I don't accept the AGW theory, but it looks like there's been a slight upward trend (about .3) since 1980, and that the claim that there's been no rise since 1998 is based on cherry-picking that unusually warm year as the point of comparison.

The low points in recent years tend to be at or above the high points in the early 80s. I think we can acknowledge some slight global warming without buying into the hysteria and exaggerated claims of the AGW crowd.

[palmer]

the claim that there's been no rise since 1998 is based on cherry-picking that unusually warm year as the point of comparison.

Moncton didn't cherry pick 1998, he used 1996. You are correct the trend is up if only slightly. But the trend over the last 20 years is less than the trend over the last 30 years. Thus claims of accelerating warming are false. If anything we will see reduced solar activity and will be lucky to keep warming.

[Steve_Seattle]

"If anything we will see reduced solar activity and will be lucky to keep warming."

According to basic science, the long-term prospects for the earth are towards cooling, which at some distant point (barring Divine intervention) will lead to the end of life on earth. So I tend to think of a slight, short-term warming as a good thing, not the unmitigated catastrophe of the global warming doomsayers.

[justa-hairyape]

Unfortunately we cannot trust these recent human derived temperature records. They are about as accurate as political election predictions. Heavily biased and full of inaccurate procedures and methods. Assume the oceans have been cooling since the 1970s, the atmosphere was warming because that cooling ocean heat has to go somewhere. So now we are on the stair step headed down. La Nina and serious atmospheric cold, followed by El Nino and some atmospheric warming and water vapor release, followed by La Nina and serious atmospheric cold. 50 x 50 chance this is the main fall back into the main cold Ice Age period again, which would mean back to the caves for the apes.

[palmer]

Yes, warming is good. Also CO2 is good. Part of the reason for what you said is that new plants have evolved due to CO2 starvation. Those threatened to take us from the ongoing low CO2 to ending the life of less adaptive plants.

[cweese]

Should be warming up in central Texas tomorrow through the end of the week, but not by much.

[StACase]

Figure 1 . The least - squares linear - regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no globa l warming for 18 years 2 month s since October 1996. The hiatus period of 1 8 years 2 month s , or 21 8 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub - zero trend.

No warming for only 18 years? Depends on what you look at. Average temperature? Just remember that the average of 51 and 49 is 50 and the average of 99 and 1 is also 50. You might as well consider the significance of the average telephone number in New York. The real information is in the Maximum and Minimum temperatures.

Here's what you get if you go to NOAA's Climate at a Glance and specify Max Temp June - September and the trend since 1930 for the Contiguous United States:

There are 20 states where the cooling trend for summer afternoons extends all the way back to the 19th century. Here's a map showing where the cool down has occurred:

What this means is that because the average temperature has indeed increased, it's the Minimum Temperatures that have gone up. Indeed that's what the IPCC reports tell us. The warming will be at night in the winter and in the higher latitudes. In other words the climate has become milder. When our media talking heads tell us about extreme weather becoming the new normal they will have to begin telling us about extreme mildness.