Posted on 12/03/2016 8:53:23 AM PST by Rockitz
The Fed has a very serious problem on its hands.
That problem concerns the fact that for seven years the Fed has spread the myth of a “recovery.”
I say “myth” because the reality is that when you remove accounting gimmicks, the US has been a “hair’s breadth” away from a recession since 2010.
The most obvious gimmick being employed is the phony “deflator” used to understate inflation and overstate growth.
Everyone knows that the official CPI measure for inflation is bogus. But the Fed routinely uses a deflator that is even lower that CPI when calculating GDP.
This sounds rather technical, so let’s run through this one step at a time.
Consider this simple example. Let’s say that the US GDP grew by 10% last year. Now let’s say that inflation also grew by 10%. In this scenario, real inflation adjusted GDP growth was ZERO.
However, announcing ZERO GDP growth is a major problem politically. So what do the Feds do? They claim that inflation was just 8%, and BOOM you’ve got 2% GDP growth announced for a year in which real GDP growth was actually zero.
This is one of the biggest games being played by the Fed post-2008. By using a deflator metric that is way below even the bogus CPI measure, the Fed is dramatically understating inflation and overstating GDP growth.
By using nominal GDP measures, you remove the Feds’ phony deflator metric. With that in mind, consider the year over year change in nominal GDP that has occurred in the US since 2011.
As you can see, since 2011, the nominal GDP has at levels that have signaled RECESSIONS at any other point in the last 30 years.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
2017 is going to be a wild ride, but first money managers need to get their fat 2016 bonuses has to preserve his phony legacy.
Take II.
2017 is going to be a wild ride, but first money managers need to get their fat 2016 bonuses and Obama has to preserve his phony legacy.
Who is peddling the fiction?
what is a good investment strategy i wonder
I think we’re going to finding out about a whole lot of “fake news” that’s been peddled over the last eight years, if not longer.
Trump is taking on the greatest mess in American history. If he can solve it, he will become a historic figure.
Go to John William’s Shadow Stats. He does an excellent job of explaining how the feds have repeatedly massaged their statistical methodology for 40 years to get desired results..
In reality, using the feds 80s methodology, we have been in recession for 8 years.
In mid-January media will be informing us how bad the economy is.
Right now, Obama is basking in the good numbers coming in — rising stock market, etc. He is already taking credit and the media will continue to give him credit. Ironically, the actual ‘good’ numbers seemed to have started just after November 8, for some strange reason.
In the media, Obama will leave with glowing economic numbers which will soon turn bad when Trump takes over. It is the media. That is who they are. That is what they do.
History, however, will not likely be so kind to Obama and his failed presidency. History will show him as even worse that Carter. At least we only had Carter for one term. Obama has had two terms to make a bigger mess of things.
Trump better schedule a speech explain this and calling out the lying, self serving perps.
>>Who is peddling the fiction?
Everyone who needs the serfs to keep working harder every year for less money to buy things they don’t really need.
Both political parties are culpable. Personally, I have long thought the precarious economic situation has created a big game of chicken between Obama and Congress. Obama has basically rammed everything he possibly could through and Congress has not used the power of the purse because they were afraid Obama would blame them for a renewed recession or worse.
Totally agreed.
Buy low sell high
There is no there there, in the report.
Should Trump survive the coup of the 19th then a true accounting will occur and the truth will be revealed.
Stripped of lies, distortions and manipulation the US has BEEN IN A RECESSION since at least 2008.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user20289/imageroot/2016/11/29/fredgraph.png
Their point is that the phony stats have underestimated inflation and overestimated GDP, thereby masking the true recessionary environment we now find ourselves in.
The Middle Class is painfully aware of that - the welfare babies and the elitists haven’t a clue.
the point is to get you to go to Phoenix Capital, get the report and get on their email list.
Here’s what Will Rogers suggested: “Don’t gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
