I agree. I said that I never thought Trump should have said he would look into her situation. Sure, it sounded great on the campaign trail and the crowds loved it, but is it really something he wants to waste political capital and time on? He wants to unify the country (which I think can only be done to some extent), and that’s going to cause a lot of controversy and division. However, now that he has said he is going to do it, if he doesn’t do it, there will be supporters (not me, but some) who will feel he’s not keeping his word. There is also the whole point of draining the swamp and some people being “too big” for prosecution - meaning that someone who wasn’t Hillary Clinton would be in serious hot water for what she did.
If Obama pardons her, Trump can just say that his hands are tied. There is nothing he can do about it. He won’t have to worry about any controversy or division. He can focus on jobs, immigration, healthcare, etc. Obama will be hated by the same people who already hate him and loved by the people who already do.
It will be interesting to see what Obama does, but I think he will. We can’t know for sure. I think he is salty over what she did with her emails as SOS. Remember that Wikileaks showed Obama knew that she had a private email. This is contrary to what he said about learning about it on TV. This case could involve him, and so that would be a reason to pardon her. On the other hand, her email situation may have cost him his legacy because it ushered in Trump. That could be reason to not pardon her.
Again, though, I agree it would be easy for our side if he does.
Agree with your analysis, including the side benefit of (further) tarnishing Obama’s legacy if he issues the pardon(s).