[MMaschin]

CO mails every registered voters a ballot. They have received 1.8 million ballots back, that's 75% of the total 2012 turnout.

In the returned ballots, there are 7000+ more Rep than Dem. There are also 550k unaffiliated ballots returned. In recent poll Trump was ahead with independents by 8. That would be 44k. So with about 75% of CO vote in, Trump should be up about 50k.

If the total turnout is about the same as 2012, there will be about 600k more votes, and Trump is ahead by 50k, so he needs 46% of remaining votes!

[SeattleBruce]

Thanks for the good analysis MM. Amd you forgot to mention the Trumpocrats, if which there are many acrissues the fruited plains, and which I think will overy helm the #nevertrump-ers.