[Tennessean4Bush]

It’s happening, but pray continually.

[TornadoAlley3]

[wise_caucasian]

Should read phony WMUR/UNH poll showing Clinton +11.

[rwilson99]

So... states to watch.

NH, MI, PA, VA.

Going to be fun.

[bray]

The trend is our friend.

Pray America wakes

[rightwingcrazy]

I don’t see how they can give her CO at this point.

[heights]

but but but, on Cheap Labor Faux News, they had him down 80.

[heights]

but but but, on Cheap Labor Faux News, they had him down 80.

[Viennacon]

Such a shame New Hampshire is slipping. Dont worry though. We have COLORADO!

[Bulwinkle]

269-269 is a possibility
Wouldn’t that be fun, Dem heads would explode!

[needmorePaine]

He outperformed his polling in the primaries. We were told he had a 1% to get the nomination. We were told for weeks and months that she had it in the bag. Now the averages say it is this close?

That just shows you that the polls were all garbage to begin with. Hell, even the ones showing him with small leads are probably bunk.

Every indicator, but major media polling, has told us to look for a Trump win: direction of the country, stagnant economy, anti-incumbency, enthusiasm gap, independents breaking for Trump, big leads among men and white working class, a surge of voters that are new or haven't voted in a long time.

Vote. Bring your family to vote. Bring your friends to vote. Bring strangers to vote. No one should say "I would vote for him but he won't win my state anyway."

[Rusty0604]

New Hampshire has four votes.

[heights]

I dream of 269

[rwoodward]

Grab the wife and kids and get your butt to church tonight and get on your knees! Thats what General Washington did at Valley Forge!

[LS]

I will put a mini-update here.

Team Trump thinks they are ahead in both MI and NM. OH, NC, FL are on track as far as they are concerned. New NM poll is Cankles +2, MI poll is Trump up one or two; PPD has Trump VERY slightly up in PA; and a Trafalgar poll has him up 2 in PA. Baris at PPD says indies breaking Trump very big.

NV trending the right way and there are still the numbers to pull this out. CO, we have the lead, indies will probably carry that-—but both of these are close.

No info on NH or MN, but Trump wouldn’t be there if it wasn’t close. Chance that ME CD-2 will be big enough Trump will get more EVs there.

I think it VERY significant that Cankles canceled her NYC fireworks, because she knows she’s lost already.

[aft_lizard]

I severely doubt the methodology in the Granite State Poll. They under represent independents and republicans big time. According to the state website NH is basically 30D-30R-40Ind. The poll flips that to 43D 30R 30I with the independents breaking to Clinton. I dont think I would include it in any averages.

[From The Deer Stand]

What’s with the FOX News poll showing Hillary ahead by 4? Methinks I smell something funny.

[GOPinNOVA]

NH - that is in HRC column b/c RCP used a ridiculous H+11 poll in the average ... otherwise, this map would be 270 TRUMP.

[Angels27]

RCP just can’t bare to have their final map at 270 for Trump. The keep an obvious outlair poll in NH to tilt the state the other way.

[jackmercer]

I wish Florida were so but the early voting demographics look bad in Nevada and Florida.

Here’s my final prediction. Notice we still have the House and the Senate is too tight for them to do anything radical over the next two years. We’ll be ok. Just have to wait it out.

These final numbers are based on my 2012 model which relies heavily on the 2010 census data and demographic trends since 2000.

Clinton will win by 5.5%. She will get 322 EV to Trump’s 216 EV.

Trump States:

Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine District 2, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Clinton States:

California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine (minus district 2), Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.

Senate: 51 Dems 49 Republicans

House: Democrats gain 14 seats but Republicans retain majority of 235 to Democrats 200