Willard won by 2%, so Trump will win by at least 7% or more. Dubya won by 12 1/2% in 2004, so if Trump outperforms him nationally, he might win by 15% there.
The state has moved left Presidentialy (and ironically GOP on the State level as ticket splitting has ceased) since W, so I’d wager 7 at about the max or close to it. No way in hell 15.
It even gave W a lower % in 2004 than 2000 (VT and SD the only other states, ironically SD because of Dassole driving Indian turnout, Bush coattails sunk him but he lowered Bush’s %, math is crazy) by an eyelash 0.01% less, I’d be very curious to see what it would have been without Edwards on the ticket. Probably a very paltry increase.