Posted on 11/03/2016 4:59:26 AM PDT by UKrepublican
Michael McDonald @ElectProject
North Carolina #earlyvote (mail & in-person) update 11/2
Dems almost claw their way back from week of poll closures. Change from same day in 2012: Dem -0.5% Rep +12.9% Unaffiliated +43.6%
I’m in NC. I am unaffiliated and i voted Trump last week. The conversations in the queue while i was waiting were almost exclusively about how people wanted someone in the White House who they could believe. No one used the names Clinton or Trump but the lady handing out the Dem voting decision guide was shunned by all but maybe 2 that i saw in the 45min wait. I was voter 4,579 at that location on October 24.
Please explain. Looks like huge raw number advantage for Demon Rats.
Nothing to worry about. Democrats turn out for early voting in NC. They are actually running way behind Republicans relative to 2012, am year that Romney won.
I know that there are a lot of posts about early voting and I’m not criticizing the post because it could to all of them but, what good does this actually do other than provide an indicator (not fact but an indicator) of interest in a candidate.
I ask because I see people becoming ecstatic or crestfallen over an early voting stat and I’d love to know what I’m missing.
As I said, not being critical, just wondering.
Exactly.
Repubs are 10 up on where they were 4 years ago. That is huge.
They had a much larger advantage in 2012 with early voting and Romney still won the state. These numbers bode well for us this year.
For me, i wanted to make sure my vote was counted and that i did not stand in line for hour upon hour on election day, risking the chance that something would come up while i was in line, kids, work, etc. breaking off a chunk of time for busy families is difficult and the early voting lines are much much shorter, at least here, than they are on election day.
It gets worse for Hillary from there. Unaffiliated voted in GOP primary 55%. Within Democrats, more white Democrats voting; many white Dems in NC are ‘soft’ and crossover often.
Actually, after looking at SoFloFreeper’s posts, I change my mind. It’s all over, Hillary needs to do ad buys in Oklahoma so she can run up 400+ EVs for her vanity, and Hillary only needs to measure her drapes as she revels in her 300+ House seat advantage and a magical 80-seat Senate advantage caused by a tsunami of R senators resigning..
As you rightly state - its at best, an indicator of enthusiasm.
But certainly proof positive of nothing, and no grounds for complacency.
The data is there for all to see, in reality, it could prove worthless, it could be part of wider nation trends where R’s are only just catching up with D’s who traditionally have an early vote advantage.
Assuming all is fair in the count, these improvements will still be positive for R’s.
After all, if you have already got a large portion of your vote out by election day, it makes the GOTV operation on the day a bit easier, effective and more targeted. In theory that is.
As you rightly state - its at best, an indicator of enthusiasm.
But certainly proof positive of nothing, and no grounds for complacency.
The data is there for all to see, in reality, it could prove worthless, it could be part of wider nation trends where R’s are only just catching up with D’s who traditionally have an early vote advantage.
Assuming all is fair in the count, these improvements will still be positive for R’s.
After all, if you have already got a large portion of your vote out by election day, it makes the GOTV operation on the day a bit easier, effective and more targeted. In theory that is.
Granted, this could happen on Election Day as well but with the sheer volume of voters coming in on that day, I feel better about my ballot not being tampered with.
Oh, stop. I am not that morose.
Early and absentee voting are little more than tea leaves.
Some states have rules for early voting different from the past, there is a cultural change in lifestyles, some of it is just a fad (like watching a trendy TV show), etc. No way to tell if early voting is a sign of enthusiasm until the final turnout numbers are in.
And enthusiasm among the same 50-60% of eligible voters who turn out every time isn’t a big deal.
Not to worry, Democrats normally lead in early voting in NC, but Republicans are currently outperforming their 2012 numbers (when they won the state), so right now it’s pointing to a Trump victory.
In 2012 the early voting breakdown was:
Democrat - 47.6%
Republican - 31.5%
Currently it’s:
Democrat - 42.7%
Republican - 32.10%
So Dems are down 4.9% and Pubs are up .6%
Also noteworthy is that in 2012 blacks made up 27.4% of the early vote and so far this year they are making up only 21.8%. Another indicator that Hillary is under-performing.
The unaffiliated vote is up big, so that will be the real deciding factor. If Independents are breaking for Trump like all the polling has said for months, then he’ll win the state by a lot.
Well, at the least, D’s aren’t really set up for an Election Day ground game. Their entire strategy revolves around a coordinated effort to vote before Election Day. R’s have tended to be more traditional “vote on Election Day” types and still have polled far better this year for Election Day voting intent.
I think turnout amplifies turnout, not cannibalize.
55% of unaffiliateds voted in GOP primary.
You’ve been here a long time as an active and level headed poster, so I don’t think you’re a trolling disrupter, but you’re definitely infected with Eeoreism.
Use the power of positivity and put aside the negativity. Win or lose, negativity will never get you anywhere you want to go.
“...in the queue...”
Thank you for your on the ground report from NC. Much appreciated.
We are unaffiliated in NC. We voted for Trump.
Our county has voting machines with a scrolling paper tape that records your vote...you can look in the window and see the result of each check mark you make electronicly. So I know the vote was properly recorded.
Now, did the tape make it downtown to the board of elections? I have no proof but I am going to wager it did: otherwise the numbers reported here would not be as huge.
My suspicion is that unaffiliated are breaking for Trump in YUGE numbers. I think he easily carries NC and THEY know it. Its why they had purple lips down here so much, trying to blunt the wave. I just do not see it happening.
I DO hope Trump’s coattails can carry McCrory back as governor. I think Burr defeats Ross as well...Pat is the weakest link. I also think our House critters get returned.
On a more somber note, our car with the Trump sticker was keyed. The leetle bas-tards...My Trump yard signs survive, tho.
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