[Alberta's Child]

They may be over-weighting Republicans in that sample.

[CatOwner]

Last I saw in 2014 was D+7 in Michigan, so the sample is slightly optimistic for Trump, but not too far off.

[oldplayer]

“They may be over-weighting Republicans in that sample.”

I agree. Unfortunately, there are a lot of “yellow dog Dims” in Michigan. Remains to be seen whether they toe the union/Clinton line.

[Harmless Teddy Bear]

They may be over-weighting Republicans in that sample.

No, they are not.

That was 2012

[mlo]

Every poll we hear about "overweighting". Just like four years ago, when everyone thought the polls needed correcting.

The problem then, as it is now, is that many of these polls aren't "weighting" for party at all, so they can't be "overweighted". If you pick your random sample by criteria other than party, and 41% of the people answer the party ID question as "Democrat", that's not weighted, it's just reporting the results.

[KC_Conspirator]

MI seems like a huge democrat state to be honest, I agree with you.