Posted on 11/02/2016 10:13:05 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Republican nominee Donald Trump is polling just one percentage point behind Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Michigan, according to a new poll from Strategic National.
The Michigan statewide poll revealed essentially a dead heat in a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Clinton received 45 percent support, while Trump received 44 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 5 percent support, while Green party nominee Jill Stein received 2 percent. Two percent of the respondents said that they were supporting someone else, and another two percent were still undecided....
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
Yes, a recent BIG change for MI, fought against hard by D's, vote result led to riots and damages inside capital building. So, there IS hope!
Hardly anyone lives in the rural counties. More people live in urban counties, which means there are more voters in urban counties. Which means, especially in Michigan, there are a lot more democrats than republicans. Two or three blue counties can out vote 50 red counties.
Best news of the day!
If you do the math rural to city population country wide is 50 - 50.
Incredible. I have wondered if his message might resonate with enough disaffected union people and AA people to give him a chance to win Michigan. It should resonate, but it has been hard for them to hear his message without all the MSM noise about groping, etc. Good news!
Not here, my dh answers the political calls. I am keeping my vote a secret...from the pollsters.
Good advice - I just prefer to see the internals, when available, to ease the minds of those who go bonkers every time they put out info designed to demoralize us.
Thanks
good point- don’t quote any polls that don’t show sampling rates.
They have been oversampling democrats by 20% and then telling us Clinton is up 12%, when what that really means is she is down 8% among democrat voters themselves.
I realize this - seeing the over sample helps with the perspective of reality. Funny how Rasmussen’s last poll is holding the internals hostage for a $!9.95/month fee to become a Silver Member if one wants to see them....
Johnson got less than half a percent last time in 2012. Same with Stein. I agree that these third party candidates are being polled at much higher numbers than they will receive in votes.
I've no dispute with that. As I said, if the pollster weights for something then you can make a case that the weighting is wrong. If they don't, you can't. Just reporting a result isn't weighting.
I do think the polls might be off for another reason, and that's turn-out. If the people that actually show up to vote end up being a slightly different make-up than the ones being sampled then you can get a surprise. This has happened. It's what happened with the Brexit vote. It may very well happen here.
They will get more this time. This isn't 2012. Both parties are running candidates that turn off a huge portion of the electorate. There are a lot of people that can't stand either one of them. Some of them are going to vote for someone else.
HOORAY Michigan
MI seems like a huge democrat state to be honest, I agree with you.
I do remember the primary. 538 had her up that far and gave Sanders a 1% percent chance of winning. He won by 4%.
I can totally believe that. ;-)
Thats some pretty bold predictions. I hope you are right.
Excellent point.
Dearbornistan will get the number of votes that Hillary needs, even if they are virtual.
I hope I am wrong, but how do you stop unethical hoards from stealing elections?
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