Posted on 11/02/2016 8:51:33 AM PDT by mandaladon
A poll from the Auto Alliance and Entertainment Software Association (ESA) finds Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by one percentage point in the key swing state of Pennsylvania. The Auto Alliance polls roughly 5,000 car owners every month. Pollsters collected 175 responses each day in six states, conducting surveys on every night except for Fridays and Saturdays, for the presidential and Senate races.
In Pennsylvania, they found Trump leading Clinton by one percentage point in a three-day rolling poll.
Support is dependent on estimated turnout.
“The strong Democrat and the strong Republican models are based on turnout in elections where the respective parties were successful in getting out their vote,” pollsters note. “The Republican model largely mirrors the voting electorate from 2014, where voters were older and more conservative. The Democrat model mirrors the voting electorate in 2012, where the electorate had greater percentages of younger and minority voters.”
The survey may be an outlier.
Another poll conducted by Franklin & Marshall College found Clinton leading Trump in Pennsylvania by 11 percentage points in a race that also included third-party candidates. Yet another poll, conducted by Remington Research, found Clinton leading Trump by only two percentage points.
Pennsylvania has voted for Democratic presidential candidates since 1988 and holds 20 electoral votes.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I think it almost happened but our RINO cowards dropped it off the agenda.
They say they poll auto owners. That’s a major bias.
Several things at work here may make this an unconventional election in PA, though ...
1. Trump is getting a lot of support from white men -- Republicans and Democrats alike. He practically owns western Pennsylvania, which has been a Democrat/union stronghold for several generations.
2. I've been saying for months that Trump is going to outperform expectations among black voters by a wide margin.
3. PA has been rocked by the scandal in which the state's Democratic attorney general was prosecuted, convicted and sentenced for obstruction of justice and perjury. I believe this will only reinforce the "drain the swamp" mentality that helps Trump in a big way.
With numbers like that, Trump will win MI as well as PA.
Any state Hillary isn’t up by at least 10+ she will lose for sure.
Luzerne calls it for Trump.
It mirrors exactly the statewide vote.
Good sign for Trump.
It’s like this:
He has to win the usual including Ohio Florida and North Carolina
Plus one of the following
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Colorado
Or
New Mexico and New Hampshire
That’s a fact
The demographics some here once on free republic once forced on the rest of us as righteous dogma has lost three critical states
Illinois New York and California
104 electoral votes in a lock
It’s taken a highly motivating candidate like Trump to even get this close
I think they leave the numbers close together to keep the interest going. Same way on election night. They will keep it going to sell more adds.
Don’t forget Toomey. We are one of the best states in which to be a gun owner.
I live in the Philly burbs, and I can tell you without a doubt that things are very different this go around. In the office, in the bars, and along the roads.
I’m looking forward to finally living in a red state.
Which is why the electoral college should be based on congressional districts instead of entire states.
While the email investigation is re-opened, I feel that this had little to anything to do with the turn in polls. If you look at the enthusiasm levels of the Dems, they follow the up and down of the polls. As the polls have risen in Hitlary’s favor, the mood of the Dems becomes complacent. Complacent people don’t vote. When the polls have taken a downward swing the mood has changed to reinvigorate the people to come out and vote. There is a correlation here in which it has never quite been measured. The polls only take people at what they say they are going to do rather then on the typical behavior of a likely voter. We are starting to see some of this trickle down. It is of my opinion why polls can be so far off when the actual event happens. A poll taken today when the mood is up can show a candidate is up in the poll. Tomorrow the respondent of the poll could be hit with something to sour their tastes. While they will still commit to voting for their candidate their behavior suggests that they will not visit the voting booth. You have to take an accounting for the historical averages of total population versus actual voting population and compare that to other quantifiable factors to reach a more true conclusion of who will win. There is one individual who has done this and he seems to be pretty accurate. His name escapes me for now. This is the main reason I don’t trust the polls because they are only one measurement in the cog of what goes into measuring who will win on election day. As more and more correlations are drawn out, I feel that additional predictive models will come out that are extremely complex to understand but produce viable results in the end.
Another poll today has Cankles up just 1 in PA.
Team Trump VERY guarded about PA, even when discussing other states. I think they are sandbagging. I think they think it’s in the bag and don’t want to jinx it.
Probably an outlier, but time will tell.
IBTBP
In before the bad pun
that’s why they call it PENCE-ilvania...
BAM!
https://mgtvwhtm.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/toplines-statewideabc272-oct16.pdf
Susquehanna Cankles +2, but his is really good. Underweights whites.
Agreed. Can’t remember the name, but saw another poll a couple of days ago that had Trump up by 1% as well.
Democrats are mostly city slickers. The few that own cars are so inexperienced they prefer Volvo's for personal preservation. They couldn't care less about your safety.
huh? Vermont red? I think you got alittle click happy.
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