Posted on 10/31/2016 12:13:27 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Democrat votes are down, Republican votes are up.
We’ll see. I remember very clearly the “ROMNEY LANDSLIDE!” comments from just 4 years ago.
DJT is nowhere near having this in the bag. I think he has a middling chance of pulling it off, nothing more.
And I dearly hope to see a TrumpNado and have you tell me how wrong I was on November 9th.
Trump has the momentum behind him and has a very good chance of winning.
Everything is breaking towards him.
He has the enthusiasm behind him which is crucial.
People see what they want to see. A whole lot of folks are setting themselves up for disappointment.
In 2004, the last election where no rockstar, media crowned, black nominee was involved, turnout was even.
In 2008 you had a pasty old white guy that excited no one vs that rockstar, and it was D+7. In 2012 you had the rockstar vs a middle aged, pasty white morman who excited no one. D+6
This year, we have the rockstar vs a pasty old white woman who faces indictment.
I’m going R+2.
Plus we get the independent vote by ten points or better.
Agreed.
Much as I hate Obama, the guy had charisma and appeal to young voters, maxed out the black vote & he ran against a couple o’ stiffs.
Way more likely to have anywhere from D+2 to even turnout this time. Plus Trump has a ton of appeal to crossover dems and indy’s
Indeed, particularly since Democrats tend to own early voting. Republicans still hold on to this outdated notion that one must wait until Election Day, don their bow tie and straw boater hat, and then go wait in line for three hours.
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!
Yes everything and the kitchen sink will be coming.. No doubt...
Exit polls are garbage now anyhow. They had Remain winning handily, to the point that Farange conceded before votes were counted.
Which mean the Dem 8 plus poll models are waaay off....landslide Trump.
Only one poll have been better than D+3 since 1988, and that was 2004 (Even). All others were D+3 or greater. I do think D+7 is not realistic, given how unpopular Hillary is. I think D+3 is probable, if only because a lot of GOP voters re-registered as IND since 2012.
poll => presidential election
The Dems are down below their 2012 performance. The Republicans are above their 2012 performance. The total Democrat votes are above the Republican votes, but not by anywhere near as much as last time. And then you have the Indy voters who are splitting big time for Trump. 55-35 seems to be about where it’s settling out at.
The majority of Republicans like to vote day-of.
Also, the “national” numbers, a lot of those early voting areas where they have more than enough to be safe, the Dems are up. But, in Florida, NC, Ohio, etc, they’re way down from 2012.
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