In 2004, the last election where no rockstar, media crowned, black nominee was involved, turnout was even.
In 2008 you had a pasty old white guy that excited no one vs that rockstar, and it was D+7. In 2012 you had the rockstar vs a middle aged, pasty white morman who excited no one. D+6
This year, we have the rockstar vs a pasty old white woman who faces indictment.
I’m going R+2.
Plus we get the independent vote by ten points or better.
Agreed.
Much as I hate Obama, the guy had charisma and appeal to young voters, maxed out the black vote & he ran against a couple o’ stiffs.
Way more likely to have anywhere from D+2 to even turnout this time. Plus Trump has a ton of appeal to crossover dems and indy’s