Posted on 10/28/2016 3:44:02 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
The IBD/TIPP poll — a collaboration between Investor's Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (TIPP) — has been the most accurate poll in recent presidential elections.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
I’m optimistic! It beats the other way! ;-)
#MAGA
Well then stay home.
You buy the media BS, so be a good little pet and don’t participate.
We aren’t here to be therapy. People have explained in dozens of threads what is going on. You choose to ignore and turn that TV right back on.
Snowflake.
I’m not sure how you how you can necessarily dismiss that - 2012 electorate was D+6, 2008 D+7, 2004 Even. Going into election day I thought Romney was going to win, but that partisan spit broke him even though he also carried independents.
On the one hand, I suppose it’s conceivable Trump could get the partisan split down to D+1 to D+3. On the other, there are a lot more non-white people (D’s) voting since 2004 so maybe that number’s no longer attainable? I think I’ve heard that the partisan crossover numbers are about even. I hope more crossover D’s than NeverTrumper’s GOTV but who knows.
Let’s hope white America turns out like they’ve never turned out before. It’s really kind of dispiriting that the IBD poll and ABC poll are basically in alignment now, and Trump’s still down 11 days out.
Trump is only up +1 in the south??? seems strange.
Nah, I’m a warrior.
#1) Obama got MASSIVE black turnout. 24% of Obama's vote in 2012 came from Blacks. Logically this won't repeat for an old white woman and based on early voting (eg: NC early black voting is down ~30%), Clinton would have lost approximately 6-7% of the votes Obama got just from Blacks - and that assumes Trump isn't more successful than Romney to get black vote (4%)
#2) Republican primary turnout was MASSIVELY higher than 2012 and MASSIVELY higher than Democrat primary turnout which was the same story in 2008 but flipped
#3) EXTREMELY difficult to win 3 presidential elections in a row for the same party. Bush/Reagan was the only ones to do that since 1950.
#4) IBD raw poll of likely voters every day since they launched has ranged from D+1 to R+3 and they've added anywhere from 7 to 10 points to this to get it to D+7 or D+8. That means they have no evidence for D+7 or 8, just that's what they believe
#5) D+6 means 20% more Dems than Repubs vote. To get to D+9 like ABC's tracking poll has or +8D like IBD has today, you'd need 26 to 33% more Democrats to turn out than Republicans. See primary vote
#6) Rally sizes - Obama pulled in larger rally sizes than McCain and Romney (Romney had a couple at the end as large). Trump is pulling in massive Rallies while Clinton pulls in nothing.
This is whack...it is a daily and to jump like that makes no sense
Ignore all media
Get Out The Vote
They are assuming big dem turnout.
that poll said 5% of republicans would vote for hillary
this is how i know they’re wrong. no actual republican could ever vote for her.
meanwhile, only 84% of the republican base is supposed to vote for Trump?? excuse me??
sorry, there hasn’t been a candidate that would attack the dems more then Trump... and that’s red meat to the base.
who are these supposed 14% of republicans that want something else??
I just looked at 'selected, weighted' pubbies and demonRATS and the demonRAT number is 22% greater than the pubbies, indies aside.
It is a fair description of a bullshit poll as is the bullshit within the poll.
My math is correct, my logic is correct, my method is biased.
Piss on all demonRAT polls.
dems don’t have to show up to vote. they have kind of an auto-voter thing... where they automagically vote democrat (ie: ballot stuffing)
of course, then there’s the other way... the dems that do show up to vote get 10+ ballots each
Right. And now it's a "has been."
'Nuff said.
There has been a 5 point move to Hillary in the past week in this poll. There has been an 8 point move to Trump in the ABC fruitcake poll. So which trend is it?
Regarding the D+7 weighting. Has that been the weighting IBD has used all along this cycle, or has that been rejiggered of late?
In any case, Trumps deficit here at 11 days out in an average of polls is now 3-4 points. Close enough to be overcome realistically. Were no longer in that 10 point gap polling range that we were only a week or two ago.
I suspect there never was a 10-14 point gap anywhere but in the media narrative to start with and it is probably not 3-4 points for Hilldog now.
The only way to keep him out of our face for the next 50 years is to elect Trump.
Wasn’t D+4 the number in 2012?
Wouldn’t the smart/cautious assumption that turnout be no better for the Dems than 2012?
Yet another bogus poll. Create your own poll and get the desired results. It will be what it will be and all the polls in the world won’t change anything.
Very good question. I was also wondering whether IBD has changed their weighting or been consistent.
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