Posted on 10/27/2016 5:34:38 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Cook political report says: "VA: early vote is at only 36% of '12 total in Newport News, 37% in Norfolk, 37% in Petersburg, 28% in Portsmouth. Low AA enthusiasm."
That’s too bad about turnout in NoVA. Does anyone have any info on the early voter turnout yet in Southwest (where even a lot of the Dems are big on Trump)—what about in places like Abingdon, Wythville, Bristol, or the Roanoke suburbs? Or everywhere except the college towns in the Valley? The whiter areas of Southside? The military area of VA Beach? It’s hard to know if the situation is good or bad yet without any comparative info on turnout in the areas Trump will win. I at least hope the depressed numbers in Petersburg is a great sign for low turnout in the large black Dem stronghold of Richmond.
Agreed.
Mitt Romney received more votes in VA than any other Rep candidate in history. He beat McCain's total by almost 100,000. Where are these new voters coming from?
I hope you are right. I think the past 8 years may have tipped VA with govt. bureaucrats and illegals in NOVA however.
NOVA dependence on status quo, and government jobs should make VA nearly impossible to flip.. folks there are going to be motivated to vote for Hillary even if they have no like or support for her, just to protect their own jobs and livelihoods... that should get them motivated to show up and vote.
If Hillary loses VA, if she can’t even get big turnouts out of the DC region crowd in VA when their own pocketbooks are the motivating factor, she will have a very very bad night overall.
I’d put VA probably as one of the least likely states to flip, simply because in spite of Hillary having no innate support or enthusiasm those folks in NOVA have livelihoods tied to the status quo, so they should be motivated to show up and vote for her in large numbers even if they personally despise her.
If Trump wins VA... you are absolutely looking at landslide possibilities because if she can’t win there, she’s going to lose in a LOT of other places.
In 2012 Romney beat Obama 99,291 to 94,299 in VA Beach. In 2008 McCain beat Obama 100,319 to 98,885.
In 2004 Bush beat Kerry 103,752 to 70,666.
Unless Trump can match Bush in VA Beach, which I doubt, I see another 50/50 split, which will not help Trump offset NoVA.
There's a VERY enthusiastic and energized women's vote for Trump spearheaded by this group:
They've been holding outreach rallies for women and ethnic minorities all over Virginia since last spring. There are over 2000 women in the facebook group. They doorknock, make calls... all legwork-type activities.
They had 350 mostly Asian women in Falls Church on Tuesday with Lara Trump that even had a fairly positive story on WAMU (NPR) this evening!
I can monitor Virginia, be more than happy to do so as I live here.
All heavily AAD, all predominantly rat.
We don’t have early voting. It’s absentee voting.
Thank you for the clarification. I was just reading an article on a news radio station about Virginians swamping election officials with calls confusing absentee voting with early voting. I blame the media for not being precise in their wording.
Fantastic. We need some traditional D counties-—how are they doing in absentees-—Traditional R-—and swing like Loudon.
Any other info you think is relevant: black %, age data of voters, etc. I know VA doesn’t list by D/R ballots, but there might be other ways to dig into this.
I understand what you are saying, and to some degree, I would agree with you, but this has been blown completely out of proportion. I have lived in Prince William, Fairfax, Falls Church, Arlington, and Loudoun Counties for more decades than I care to admit (and, I may as well have lived in Alexandria, because I spent a lot of weekends there). I have seen the changes throughout the region, over a very long period of time, and the doom-n-gloomers have exaggerated the problem to almost embarrassing levels. Most of the new growth areas are actually filled with a mixture of Republicans and democrats, regardless of where their paychecks come from. I know, since I live among them. They are raising families, they see first-hand the devastation of illegal immigration, and, generally speaking they are professionals (this is very different from the true fedgov types who inhabit Arlington/Alexandria/parts of Falls Church, who are true believers and died-in-the-wool democrats). But those areas are not where the bulk of the growth has been. The bulk of the growth has been in outer FFX county, Loudoun, PW, etc, and it is there that you find a fairly normal mix of voters.
Don’t buy into the hype. VA is still a swing state.
The BIG change has been demographics. Many of these these areas have experienced large-scale changes. My regular voting area in mid-FFX county went from being largely white (60-40), to something more like 10-90, during 08 and 12. These voters were never seen before (at least by me), and were for the most part young, and I honestly had no idea what continent they were from. I never saw them in 10, or 14, or 04/06. But in the Obama election they were walking neighborhoods, and were everywhere before the election. I can still remember them walking the neighborhoods with idiot college kids from Mason. Now, nowhere to be seen.
Haven’t seen them at all, this time. 08 and 12 were aberrations, caused by Obama. Northern Virginia may lean democrat, but the results of 08 and 12 are very misleading. For both elections, I lived in mixed, working class neighborhoods that were fairly ethnic. They loved Obama. Signs everywhere, and you would constantly overhear people talking politics. Now, I don’t hear a word. The only time I have even run into Hillary supporters have been from never-Trumpers, not from democrats.
I agree that VA will be tough. I think PA is actually better for Trump demographically.
Trump can win Virginia, though. In 2008 and 2012, Obama was able to get record AA turnout and received almost 100% of those votes. So any percentage decrease in AA turnout results in that same percentage decrease in the vote share for Hillary.
Trump will also get very strong support in southwest and the valley. There are many people in those areas who have been left behind in trade deals.
As far as NOVA, I suspect that younger voters will not turn out in the same numbers as they did for Obama.
“Hi, my name’s Gnu and I’m a Trump voter...”
Well said. I likewise think the “Virginia is permanently blue” line is much exagerrated. Obama was able to assemble a coalition that Hillary cannot replicate. Obama was a perfect storm for Democrats - huge numbers of minorities and young voters.
I agree 100%. Virginia has been a traditionally right of center state since the 60’s. It voted against Clinton twice in the 90’s.It voted against Gore and Kerry.
I will not be surprised at all when Trump wins the state of Virginia as it returns to its sense of honor given the complete and total corruption of the Clinton’s.
All are Democratic strongholds. Keep an eye on Republican areas like York County (adjacent to Hampton and Newport News); Chesapeake and Suffolk (outside Norfolk and Virginia Beach), along with the Richmond suburbs and all the rural areas in the state. Those are areas Trump must run up a large plurality to offset the Dim vote. If those totals from Norfolk and other urban areas hold, it’s a good sign, and confirmation that the so-called “Obama coalition” won’t turn out en masse for Hillary.
Didn’t see the “Big Three” northern Virginia counties mentioned in this snippet. Those totals will also be telling. A Republican can have a 50,000 vote lead until Fairfax and Loudon counties begin coming in and lose by a significant margin.
I will never forget the election of ‘08. Prior to the election, there was this palpable excitement (dread, for me, but it was clear how excited everyone else was). People I didn’t know would say things like “go Obama” as casually as they usually would ask “how you doing?”, hordes of young people would walk the neighborhood on an almost daily basis. My sleepy voting precinct, that I voted at at the same time the preceding two presidential elections, went from being a quick in-n-out affair, with maybe a line 2 or 3 deep at each of the registars, to being jam packed with young people representing every country in the UN, who may as well have been breaking out into dance they were so boisterous. I had to wait almost an hour to vote in a place I had never waited more than a few minutes in.
A perfect storm, but not one to be repeated. Even in ‘12 they were subdued, although they still voted in numbers far exceeding ‘04. But I guarantee they will not be voting for Hillary. I guarantee those silly college kids aren’t wasting their time bothering people at dinner. I guarantee all of the window signs that said “Obama ‘08” do not now read “Clinton ‘16”.
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