USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 10/25 Trump 45.3 Clinton 44.2

USC/LA Times ^ | October 25, 2016 | USC/LA Times

[BlessedBeGod]

	10/26	10/25	Change
Trump	45.3	44.1	+ 1.2
Clinton	44.2	45.0	- . 8

[LongWayHome]

It’s an issue that’s just killing the middle class. I hope it becomes a constant focus with team Trump.

[Helicondelta]

Same old playbook:

Boston Globe Senate Poll: Coakley up 15 points

Democrat Martha Coakley, buoyed by her durable statewide popularity, enjoys a solid, 15-percentage-point lead over Republican rival Scott Brown as the race for US Senate enters the homestretch, according to a new Boston Globe poll of likely voters.

http://archive.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/01/10/senate_poll_coakley_up_15_points/

Scott Brown was elected a few days later beating Coakley by 5 points.

[goldstategop]

People have to pay more for doctors they can’t see and they can’t choose the plan they want.

Obamacare is the Zika virus of liberal policy.

[JediJones]

It’s a tight margin though. Has any candidate been outside the margin of error in it lately or ever?

[goldstategop]

The poll that says Hillary is up 12 - tell us honestly - is there anything like the D +6 to D +9 turnout media tells is supposed to happening for Hillary?

I’m not getting that impression. As a matter of fact, just yesterday she had to exhort her followers to vote because the race was close.

Huh? Didn’t she have it already in the bag? The MSM told us its over.

[convoter2016]

I thought I had this poll figured out. Trump had relatively low points (mathematically speaking nearly local minima) on 10/11 and 10/18 and Clinton had relatively high points on those two dates. I interpreted it to mean that many Clinton supporters submitted their votes on 10/11 and 10/18 to the poll. I was surprised that after the 10/25 votes were counted in the rolling average, Trump actually gained from the day before. This is an unusual poll.

[80skid]

Pauly, Rocky IV presser.

Who am I...

[jackal7163]

Weird. I’ve never been able to look at that site with my phone’s browser and have always looked at the LAT website instead. And today it is not updating on either phone or tablet. Usually they post the results by 1:00 my time but it seems stick on yesterday’s results... I guess they don’t want to show him ahead

[goldstategop]

If you assume its really D +6, race is tight.

If its less than that, Trump wins comfortably.

Depends on whether the 2012 turnout model in fact is accurate.

[goldstategop]

Hillary cannot keep a lead even in a tracking poll with a turnout assumption weighed in her favor.

Imagine where she really is if it isn’t. Not good news for her.

[JediJones]

I just wish they’d throw in the philosophical argument that the government cannot run the economy or health care and that is why it’s failing. Even if they don’t have specifics, that would sound like they have a foundation of an idea in mind. We’re hearing too much about how Obama and Hillary specifically are bad leaders but not hearing hardly anything about why having the government run these giant programs is a bad idea in the first place.

[LongWayHome]

That’s why I want to see both Trump & Pence address this together & bring home how truly troubling these high costs of health care are. Address this as the deadly serious issue that it is. Sadly....the American public has a short attention span.

[JediJones]

I read a new Nate Silver article saying polls have been more reliable overall since 2000 than they were in the past, but took a dip in reliability in the 2012 and 2014 elections. He said the shifting to cell phone usage is probably part of that. Polling technique has not caught up yet with how to deal with that.

[Salamander]

Both Trump and Killary are running ads in western MD.

[LongWayHome]

I suspect they are trying to hit the PA market.

[Byron_the_Aussie]

[Salamander]

The area of PA that I am near is full-on for Trump, already.

We *never* see political ads out this way.

MD is always a “gimme” for Dems so nobody bothers.

*But*, Trump has been to MD, several times.

[JediJones]

I’m pretty sure everyone has to answer the poll every day. If they skip a day, they are not counted so the overall sample for that day would be lower.

One thing’s for sure, if these people are committed to doing this poll every day, they are probably definitely likely voters.

Kind of suggests Trump has more enthusiasm and maybe he’s higher because the Hillary voters just don’t respond as often to this poll.

Trouble is Dems have a way of getting enthusiastic in the last 4 days before an election and then ignoring politics again for the next 4 years while their choices wreck the country and they look the other way. Pretty sure the undecideds broke for the Dems at the last minute in 2000, 2008 and 2012. Not sure about 2004 but seems like that one was good for Bush all around.

[JediJones]

I’m being bombarded with Toomey and McGinty ads in the Philly burbs. Trump and Clinton are invisible. I assume Trump is conceding this part of the state to Hillary.

[LongWayHome]

Philly is a nightmare for the GOP.