NC In-person Early Vote Day #4 (Cumulative) Comparison to 2012: Dems -10%, Reps -5%, UNF +28

@BowTiePolitics ^ | October 24, 2016 | Dr. Michael Bitzer

[right-wingin_It]

For 2016 Day 4 of Cumulative In-Person NC Absentee Voting Same Day #s to 2012 by Party: overall -1%, Dems -10%, GOP -5%, Unaffiliated +28%

[right-wingin_It]

The trend appears to be holding through Day# 4 now. Dems rely heavily on in person early voting, and so there may be long term trouble ahead for them in NC. If the tend continues to hold, this deficiency for the Dems in Early In Person Voting (aka In person absentee) relative to Repubs will swamp out any deficiency Repubs have in absentee mail-in votes.

[right-wingin_It]

ping

[9YearLurker]

And Romney won NC by 3% in 2012.

But Trump absolutely needs NC—and everyone has to do what they can to get the Trump vote out there just as well.

[fortheDeclaration]

This is where we see the true effects of the enthusiasm gap, in actual voting.

[arl295]

Trump has NC

He has it in the bag

The question isn’t if Hillary is going to win NC, that is stupid, Trump has that one in the bag, the question should be, will she win NY?

[rb22982]

These are very promising and black vote is down roughly 25% so far and white indies are up massively with a good m:f ratio

[9YearLurker]

No, that’s going crazy in the other direction.

[arl295]

I don’t think so, NY is the state in play, not NC

or Virginia

or texas

those are liberal narratives

[Impala64ssa]

Trump has that one in the bag, the question should be, will she win NY?
Rockland County has a large Caribbean population. They are outraged at the screw job the earthquake victims in Haiti got from the Clinton Foundation. Also nearby in Monsey and New Square is a huge number of Orthodox Jews, traditionally they vote Democrat especially locally but they did support Reagan both times and the ones in NYC overwhelmingly voted for Mayor Guliani in both elections. To say the least they were unimpressed with Her Henious when she ran for US Senate. Obviously, Trump is no Reagan, but Rockland could go Republican for the first time since 1984. This in and of itself wouldn't be enough for Trump win NY, but who knows?

[right-wingin_It]

This is where we see the true effects of the enthusiasm gap, in actual voting.

The pollsters need Nobel Prizes and the journalists, especially @Politico need Pulitzers for their works of what I call "psy-ence".

I had a hearty laugh at the title of a Politio article today saying "Trump starts grappling with reality", leading with the sentence: "...a tone of resignation has crept into Donald Trump's talk about his presidential ambitions..." Gimme a break! They're going hard right to the end, "throwing everything they got at us" as put by Mike Gallagher today.

[arl295]

I think NY is in play

It will be the election evening surprise

[KavMan]

From ALL these Early Vote numbers where Dems & Republicans are down but Independents wayyyy up

That gives me hope TRUMP will win!!!!!

[MUDDOG]

Independents can vote in either primary in NC, so I think there are more conservatives registered as independents here, than in states with closed primaries.

NC tried to institute voter ID and shorten the early voting period, but struck down by a federal court.

Wash. Post article

But New York, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts have no early voting, and many states have voter ID.

[deport]

Not all early voting locations are open in NC at the present time. Others will open
later on this week. So in effect the per day votes cast likely will become larger.
Example: a county may have only one site open now at the court house but on Oct. 27
they will open others in locations such as malls, etc. I know I’m going once that happens

[revivaljoe]

a lot of republicans left the part and went INDY - so if INDY is way up then they are the old REPUBLICANS that jumped ship - this is a very good sign!

[personalaccts]

I’m a register independent in NC it’s due to the fact the GOP became spineless. I’m a Jesse Helms conservative

[MUDDOG]

I’m registered independent too, but if it was closed primaries here, I’d register Republican.

Jesse was da man!

[right-wingin_It]

Thanks for the info. We’ll have to keep an eye on that. Was it like that in 2012? I think a slope increase would show up on the historical charts for cumulative vote then in a few days..I have to check it out. By the way, there is also slope change on the chart from this author’s twitter post. It is a temporary 2 day change - because of the weekend effect, and then the slope resumes to after the weekend to its previous.

[Alberta's Child]

I agree with you on that. I’d curious to see the breakdown of voters not by their current party affiliation, but by their party affiliation 1-2 years ago.

[deport]

North Carolina Voter Registration Stats

Oct. 22, 2016

Democrats  Republicans  Libertarians  Unaffiliated
2,705,699  2,060,227    31,358        2,038,536