Posted on 10/22/2016 11:35:48 PM PDT by WilliamIII
If you ask most pundits – and indeed, most voters – who’s likely to win the presidential election on November 8th, the answer, overwhelmingly, would be Hillary Clinton. Some odds-makers, including noted statistician Nate Silver, place her chances of victory at somewhere near 90%.
And, of course, a spate of new national polls, most of them sponsored by media companies that unabashedly support Clinton, suggests that the former First Lady enjoys a large and widening lead over Donald Trump.
The race is over, many analysts say.
But not all pollsters agree. In fact, three of the most recent national surveys still show the 2016 contest as a statistical dead heat (or Trump slightly leading). And when non-conforming polls come in threes, they’re not so easy to dismiss as “outliers.” They even beg the question as to whether any of the polls can be trusted to predict the election.
If history is any guide, they can – and these outlier polls may be closer to the truth than many people realize.
For one thing, the firms sponsoring two of the polls have a sterling record. One is IBD/TIPP, which is considered by experts like Silver to be the nation’s single most reliable pollster. Not only did the firm accurately predict the outcome of the last four presidential elections, it did so with uncanny accuracy. Silver found that it came closest to predicting the 2012 election, not just Romney’s victory, but the actual point spread.
And it’s not just IBD/TIPP. The second polling group that finds the current race a dead heat has also successfully predicted past elections. Its sponsor is the LA Times/USC consortium (hereafter LAUSC), a partnership between the nation’s third ;largest newspaper and two prestigious research centers at a prestigious university
(Excerpt) Read more at natmonitor.com ...
No wonder Hillary always wears pants or long dresses that cover her legs. That is one nasty view.
I really wish Trump would give up on Pennsylvania. I remember McCain/Palin campaigning hard here and Ed Rendell nervously claiming Dems could lose the state. Of course they didn’t. Someone called PA fool’s gold for Republicans in presidential elections.
Even worse signs are how bad Pennsylvania has been for Republicans in mid-terms for statewide offices. They were one of the only states to boot out a GOP governor in the last mid-term. Toomey BARELY won his Senate seat in 2010. And remember both these mid-terms were HUGE victories nationally for Republicans.
Repubs haven’t won it since 1988. Even Bush Jr. couldn’t win it in 2004. I’d stop throwing Hail Marys and focus on NV and CO if I were Trump.
Rasmussen didn't do very well in 2012, but they are a reputable firm and they modified their survey technique. They don't poll over the weekends now. The astute observers here appreciated that there was a repeating cyclicality in their polling over the weekends that showed an improvement for the Democrat candidate. (My explanation was that on weekends normal people tend to be outside and away from home, not at home sitting by the telephone waiting for someone to call.)
There is more to "Live Phone", "Internet" and "Robodial" than the chart shows. IBD, for example, polls 65% cell phones. That gets expensive. And the analysis doesn't even get into who is doing the polling. College coeds at near-minimum wage who received an hour of training? Consider me skeptical that they are ferreting out accurate responses.
Gallup's original 1936 poll that put them on the map had a sample size of 50,000. The cost of doing something like that today would be enormous.
I can understand that news organizations tout their own polls, since they are paying for them, even badly-done polls are expensive and they confirm the bias of 93% of their staff.
MSM is whistling in the dark.
Their “prediction” of a Hillary widening lead and 90% win probability is crap.
Their skewed polls are nowhere close to the truth.
They’ll be “surprised” because their torrent of lies have caught up with them.
No thing is more vulnerable to being upset by reality like the elite consensus in Hillary’s inevitability.
Highly unlikely for that to happen unless Hillary wins more states by narrow margins while Trump piles up a popular vote victory.
Last time that happened was in 1888.
With you in spirit. Amen.
If undecideds and third party voters were going to vote Hillary, they would have broken for her months ago.
People are going to go with the strong horse - Trump.
MSM claim election is over is far from the truth.
The two are close enough that small poll leads won’t matter. What will matter is which side has more enthusiasm to get their people to show up and vote.
I suggest you re-check Luzerne.
If Trump is still ahead there, he’s won PA.
Hillary is still having to campaign in Philly and people are leaving her rally as she’s still speaking?
Trump has got this thing won - more the most people think who get their news following the MSM.
Like most of us, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about the disconnect of polls and reality. I don’t think there is a media conspiracy to propagandize the polls - I just don’t think they’re taking the grand realignment into account. D/R/I isn’t how we’re made up so much anymore.
The customary D/R/I split doesn’t make sense anymore. Some use D+6, others R+1, etc. they just have no idea what the split is.. it’s all over the place (like the polls). The grand realignment is taking some D, some R, and some I into an “America first” group ... generally speaking. Lots of Rs became Is and more than ever before lots of Ds will vote R.
I don’t think the polls are capturing the monster vote either. How could they? The tracking polls attempt to do so but I still think they’re missing a lot. They still use the old D/R/I paradigm?
This election is not being measured well because of the grand realignment and a higher-than-ever monster vote/Bradley effect. I don’t think any outfit has any freaking idea what will happen. If I just look at anecdotal evidence, I see a Trump win. The ONLY evidence of a Hellery win is the polls - and they’re out of focus IMO.
Well here’s to hoping for a Trump landslide! The alternative is actually unthinkable.
if i ask people who they want, only the delusion and drug addled align themselves with hillary and the left.
they haven’t changed their mind ... as they like / depend on the govt gravy train
people should wear RED to the polls and take pics of the lines. an overwhelming majority of RED would put truth to the lies when they start stealing the vote
I recently journeyed across 14 states. What I noticed was apparent apathy. There were almost no Hillary signs. The largest number and only place with Hillary signs was in a Santa Fe neighborhood. There was only one other sign in all the other 13 states.
As a matter of fact, there were more Johnson signs. There were but few Trump signs and they were in groups. The greenie lady had more signs than hillary
Then there are the daily rally’s. Hillary has none and has given up. There is no turnout of consequence. Trump has standing room only attendance with many disappointed folks turned away.
Conclusion: Apathy will mean low turnout for those polled for Hillary.
Exhilaration will mean greater than polled turnout for Trump.
It says that roughly half the nation is just as corrupt as the Clintons. According to the U.S. Census Bureau and other government reporting agencies, somewhere approaching 50 million people in the U.S. are on food stamps (46.5 million in 2014). Also somewhere north of 35% of all people in our country are on welfare (109,631,000 million in 2012 per the Census Bureau).
In other words, huge numbers of individuals in this country are on the take from the government. So are state governments, many so-called private charitable institutions, religious institutions and corporations.
I was born there and visit every month. Big support for Trump in the area, but Philly and Pitts is why the GOP loses PA. I’m in the Philly burbs where Trump is toxic. He may flip Luzerne and Lackawanna to the GOP, but that’s only half a million population between both. Philly and the burbs have millions of people.
Trump must think he has a good chance there. Does he? If I knew as much about marketing myself as Donald Trump knows about marketing Donald Trump, I'd have a fleet of 757s too (and not an old Volvo).
I really wish jerkoffs, like you, would get off of your ass and go knock on some doors, make some phone calls and help out, instead of beating the hell out of your mouth and your keyboard.
I'm a PA poll watcher, phone caller, door knocker and money donater, and the group of volunteers that have shown up to help Trump get elected in PA would amaze you, {if you would offer to help, instead of whine}.
While thousands of PA volunteers are working their collective asses of, you can't get yours off of the couch.
STFU!!!
The last time that happened was 2000.
Here's what happened: In 1965, Ted Kennedy led the Democrats in a scheme to import millions of future Democratic voters from the Third World and in the 50 years since, the GOP did nothing to stop it.
In New York City, Hundreds Become U.S. Citizens Just in Time to Vote
How many Trump voters do you think are in this photo? Yeah, I didn't see any either.
None of this addresses my argument. If that kind of GOTV effort actually works, which I highly doubt, since I don’t buy things from people who knock on my door or call me, then all resources in PA should be moved to NV and CO. The effort should be put into the states he is more likely to win and not put into states that he is unlikely to win and that he doesn’t need.
My argument is the resources are being wasted in a longshot state when he still needs to shore up must-win states. The post-election analysis on McCain’s campaign said exactly that about his bid for Pennsylvania. I did do phone calls and knock on doors for that one, and it was clearly a waste of time. Now if you actually start busing people to the polls, you might be able to get him some more votes.
It wasn't your door knocking nor phone calling that was a waste of time, it was our candidate that was a waste of everything.
mcpain was a loser, gave up MI when he didn't even put up a fight, and would not contest the bullcrap that came out of philly.
104% voter turnout should be challenged in court but mcpain left his balls in a VC prison.
I don't doubt his war time courage, but it didn't carry over after he got caught stealing in the S&L scandal.
Trump will not roll over for out right fraud.
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