Lets assume about 80% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 3%, say 43% to 40% with the rest Independents/Other.
3,102,040 total absentee ballots mailed as of today
2,481,632 total returned (3,102,040 * 0.8)
1,067,101 - REP 43% (2,481,632 * .43)
992,652 - DEM 40% (2,481,632 * 0.40)
74,449 REP Lead Predicted
ping
Trended well a couple of days in a row. Let’s hope it continues.
I like the trend. The percentage of D:s has dropped the last 5 days.
I thought I read that the repubs have to be up by 110,000 in order to counter the dem voting day advantage.
I could be very wrong.
So many numbers being thrown around these days.
I apologize if i am.
I get the apples to apples comparison on 2012 to 2016, but I don’t think we can discount that the narrower margin may very well be Democrats who are voting for Trump.
Question. Does “Reps led in this category by 79,000 in 2012”, mean A) there were 79,000 more R Absentee Ballots returned than Dem; or, B0 in the final election count of all returned Absentee Ballots for 2012, Romney had 79,000 more votes than Obama? I ask, because I am trying to think through how Independents might account for the appearance of a smaller R Absentee Ballot advantage this time.
If I am reading your numbers correctly, about 18.2% of Absentee Ballots returned through 10-21-16 are neither R nor D.
In 2012, the final breakdown (per USAElectionsAtlas.com) was:
Obama: 49.91% 4,237,756 votes
Romney: 49.03% 4,163,447 votes
Other: 1.06% 89,816 votes
Figures for 2008 are similar, but Obama outscored McCain by roughly 250,000 votes. Other was almost the same as 2012.
Point: 2012 and 2008 results imply that Other traditionally wins only about 1% of actual votes, regardless of what people say in polls or how they identify themselves in registration. Due to great disgust with both D and R candidates in 2016, let’s go wild and guess that Other, triples its final share of votes to 3%. This implies a large majority of the 2016 “Independent” Absentee Ballots being returned actually have have votes for either Trump or Hillary.
You keep doing this every day and leaving me confused with your analysis. Could you clarify. When I look at the numbers, it seems that Republicans are performing about the same as in 2012 statewide, and that the Dems are UNDERperforming in Hillsborough. Am I wrong?
Thanks for the updates!