You keep doing this every day and leaving me confused with your analysis. Could you clarify. When I look at the numbers, it seems that Republicans are performing about the same as in 2012 statewide, and that the Dems are UNDERperforming in Hillsborough. Am I wrong?
Yes, with a caveat.
Right now, Rs lead Ds in RETURNED absentee ballots by 1.8%. I think that can grow to 3% by election date. That would match the 2012 lead for Rs. In that sense, “similar” to 2012 - for absentee voting.
For Hillsorough, DEMs led by 20,000 in 2012 for combined Absentee ballots and in-person early voting. So far in 2016 they are leading by just under 5000. But no in-person voting yet. That starts next week. I assume their lead will grow with in-person voting. Question is whether their lead is over / under 20,000. Under 20,000 is good for us and over 20,000 is good for DEMs. It is too early to draw conclusions from Hillsborough until we see in-person early voting numbers.
Conclusion: Rs looking similar to 2012 in absentee voting. Too early to tell yet on Hillsborough. Hillsborough county is the typical “swing” county in Florida.