Posted on 10/19/2016 7:27:45 AM PDT by rb22982
Washington, DC- Three weeks out from election day the Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Clinton’s bump from the last week or so receding just in time for the third debate. The effects of Trump’s “hot mike” incident and second debate performance appear to have subsided somewhat, and the election has reverted back to pre-debate levels
Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump among likely voters, though her lead has shrunk to 4 percentage points, with Clinton at 43% to Trump at 39%.
The Supreme Court!
Issue Number One for Republican NT jerks. Hammer on it.
And the undecideds will probably go disproportiately to Trump as Clinton is acting as the incumbent.
Good effort though. Thanks
Below are current numbers on registration by party.
“PRINCETON, N.J. — In 2015, for the fifth consecutive year, at least four in 10 U.S. adults identified as political independents. The 42% identifying as independents in 2015 was down slightly from the record 43% in 2014. This elevated percentage of political independents leaves Democratic (29%) and Republican (26%) identification at or near recent low points, with the modest Democratic advantage roughly where it has been over the past five years.”
The spread is 3% in favor of Dems. The Reuters poll oversampled the democrats. Their sample was 6% greater than the Republicans. It should have been 3%.
What is almost impossible to measure in a poll is voter enthusiasm. I am very enthusiastic about voting for Trump.
Below are current numbers on registration by party.
“PRINCETON, N.J. — In 2015, for the fifth consecutive year, at least four in 10 U.S. adults identified as political independents. The 42% identifying as independents in 2015 was down slightly from the record 43% in 2014. This elevated percentage of political independents leaves Democratic (29%) and Republican (26%) identification at or near recent low points, with the modest Democratic advantage roughly where it has been over the past five years.”
The spread is 3% in favor of Dems. The Reuters poll oversampled the democrats. Their sample was 6% greater than the Republicans. It should have been 3%.
What is almost impossible to measure in a poll is voter enthusiasm. I am very enthusiastic about voting for Trump.
based on this poll and correcting for the D+14, it’s works out to T+3
plus monster vote’
Mod.
I accidently double posted. Please remove the duplicate. Thanks
Perhaps the few Mormons that still post on FR would want to comment on this...
And I believe that anyone who OWNS casinos would know the odds of every game in the joint!!
Even Kenny Rodgers knew not to count your money at the table!
“From whence shall we expect the approach of danger? Shall some trans-Atlantic military giant step the earth and crush us at a blow? Never. All the armies of Europe and Asia...could not by force take a drink from the Ohio River or make a track on the Blue Ridge in the trial of a thousand years. No, if destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of free men we will live forever or die by suicide.”
Abraham Lincoln
They are pushing to have Romney endorse McMullin!!! After most of us rallied to vote for this vermin, Romney.
I have seen reports that said that the highest a GOP candidate ever got was 82%, which I assume was Reagan.
Hillary is not getting the Sander's vote.
He was irrelevant, as will these 'never Trumper's' will be.
You are exactly right! D+14 sample and Hillary up 4? This is great news for Trump though it won’t be reported as such. If turnout in this election is D+14 I will kiss Hillary Clinton’ s ass! Ugh!!
Plus keeping the death voters and illegals to a minimum...
Nothing that snake McCain does would surprise me..
Where did you get those numbers?
National polling is irrelevant at this point in time. It is state polls that matter.
Which candidate can get to 270 Electors.
Here are the 22 states plus D.C. where Mr. Trump must make in-roads in order to stop Clinton: WA, OR, CA, HI, NM, CO, MN, WI, IL, MI, PA, NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, CT, RI, NJ, DE, MD, VA & DC would give her 273 Electoral votes.
National polling gives you a good idea which state polls are bogus and which ones are accurate though (eg: if you believe national is tied, no way is Clinton up 4 in GA like a poll that came out yesterday; alternatively if you believe Clinton is up nationally by 5, no way is Trump up by 4 in Ohio, 5 in FL and 5 in NV like a poll said yesterday)
I disagree. National polls project the popular vote. State polls project the Electoral vote.
Al Gore won the popular vote by about a half a million but he lost the Electoral College and the presidency by 537 votes in Florida.
Its not so much how many votes a candidate gets as it is where they get those votes. Donald Trump might win Georgia by a million votes, he still gets 16 electors. Clinton might win California by 1 vote, she gets all 55 electors.
Taking an average of several most recent state polls is a good way to get a realistic sense of the state the race in that state. I never trust any one poll, state or national.
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