Posted on 10/14/2016 5:29:07 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT
Folks - with less than 4 weeks out, and the onslaught of polls expected from here on out, thought it might be a good idea to have a central spot where we can discuss polls as they come out... Dissect them, discuss internals, find reasons for realistic optimism...
If you choose to discount all polls, that's your prerogative, but can we please have this as a place for those who want to discuss polls of the day?
LATimes/USC - tied at 43 (she's up by 0.3%). Slight downward movement for Trump, but most likely statistical noise
Rasmussen - Trump maintains 2 point lead - 43% - 41%, same as yesterday. No sign of fallout yet. In a separate poll by Ras, voters rated Bill Clinton's behavior towards women worse than Trump, by 43% - 28%
NH Poll (WBUR/MassInc)- Clinton by 3. Last poll I saw, a couple of days ago, had her up about 10. With Ayotte (even though she's a disgrace) and Sununu on the ticket, Trump has a very good shot at getting NH's 4 EVs
I looked at a twitter site that a FReeper gave me that just has all polls tweeted out.
After reading about 30 polls, I can NOW SAY that either Trump is UP 10 points or DOWN 10 points and hitlery is either UP 10 points or DOWN 10 points :)
You’ve got 2 nevada polls, one right after the other on the page, showing BOTH up by six :)
This is NOT an election for polls. It’s just not working out that way .
I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if the Trump “BS Bimbo eruption” becomes their Wellstone moment, where they overplay their hand and America sees the media as the political whores they are..
If Trump is within 3 in NH, within 3 in VA, up in OH... NO way he is down nationally. At worst, it’s even in my opinion, and if even Trump wins the EV cause Cali and NY run up her popular vote totals
For this reason, Trump landslide!
Given how blatantly the media has been, I do not trust any polls that they commission this far out from the election.
I put most stock in the trend.. it’s ALL Trump right now... I know it’s just one poll, but Ras detected no fallout from the latest media BS... at least in the 1st day..
Anyone that discounts Ras as a GOP shill is full of it.. Scott sold the outfit in ‘14 and is a left-wing run operation.. if anything, Ras, being a 3 day rolling poll (as opposed to the others that are 7) picks up trends before others, and isn’t solely an on-line poll).. I know they screwed up in ‘12, but have adjusted their model
If Trump is up double digits w Indies, he wins
I do not know of an honest poll; and, one that accounts for Trump hang-ups. Yes, hang ups. Clinton supporters love the media and polls, so they will participate. I, hang up on them. This is NOT accounted for. Pollsters fill in whatever they want in place of one who hangs up. If you think they just keep looking, you’re a fool. They do not, and they oversample Dems.Polls are push polls, meant to get the result they want. I’m frankly sick of the pessimism here and obsession on polls. This is not Romney, McCain or Dole. Trump is all in and he knows it is his demise if he loses.Literally.
The only caution I’d advise is to see how this 10-year-old girl comment plays over the next couple of days. They’re going to paint him as a paedophile and there are voters who will fall for it. Regardless, Trump is all in and so am I and every other supporter I know.
All I have heard over and over and over all morning and reported with great glee by the fox poll babe since 0530 that Trump is down by 8 but clintoon has not gained.
If this does not stick they will trump up something else to throw at Trump. Who knows what?
Nobody can win against the press machine.
I wish Hittlery would just die. She is looking bad. Maybe she will.
Article in the Lakeland, Fl Ledger shows Illary up by 6 in Florida. Florida Atlantic University poll of likely voters. (No internals) Calling BS!
Would love to see how the internal campaign polls are doing for both camps since Monday. I’m surprised by the overall lack of state polls - had some yesterday finally but still at this point seems light. I think the LA times & PPD polls will show Trump in the lead again once they roll off last weekend and I think the other polls move back to Trump down 4% range or so like they were before this past weekend (assuming no new major bombshell either way).
Any internals on that?? Like Women +12?
I despise FOX. FOX BUSINESS channel is om though
Reince Preibus called them out a few weeks ago. They always tout the worst possible poll...
When their own poll showed a 2 point race, they cited the CNN poll, which was more favorable to Hillary! Disgusting
PPD went from Hillary +3, to a dead heat yesterday... again, the trend is for Trump
I think it might be best to concentrate on only a couple. I see some where’s he’s up, others, down.
I can’t believe he’s down.
I’m expecting a Miracle. The media is 24/7 against the man. His own party against him.
God will not allow Hillary Clinton as our next president.
It looks like she might pull a Romney, and not do the last debate.
Can you all imagine? the 24/7 mainstream news and late night tv have trashed Trump at every possible moment. YET, he maintains a lead and/or is tied with this despicable person.
Can you all imagine? the 24/7 mainstream news and late night tv have trashed Trump at every possible moment. YET, he maintains a lead and/or is tied with this despicable person.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.