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Posted on 10/01/2016 7:00:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Matthew is big, bad and just downright scary, and we await the long anticipated sharp turn northward. Jamaica is completing final storm preparations. All interests in the Eastern U.S. and Bahamas should be carefully watching the track of Mighty Matthew.
Ripped straight from the NHC Discussion page:
Matthew remains south of a low-to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic. The dynamical models forecast this ridge to
weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Matthew to turn
northwestward after 24 hours and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance
generally agrees with this scenario. However, there is a spread between
the GFS forecast of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF
forecast landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more
divergent after 72 hours.
Cone of Death Historic Archive Loop
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Buoy 42058 Central Caribbean (in storm path)
Florida & Eastern Gulf Buoy Locations
SE Atlantic Coast Buoy Locations
SE U.S. Radar Sector
Gitmo Radar (primitive)
Jamaica Radar Loop (primitive)
If the info above doesn't satisfy your need for speed and graphics, strap yourself in for a ride to Mike's Weather Page
wow impressive ,thanks.
The problem with this storm is advance knowledge of where it goes may be last minute.the five day bubble is huge indicating they just don’t know.
Excellent comment. big powerful storms like that can do pretty much what they want 4’s or 5’s. Don’t see it much in the others.
Praying that it heads East and nobody gets killed.
Exactly great post,in just a few words they don’t have a clue where the huge storm will go after day three. Another thing,my guess is they start all over after it passes over Cuba. These things sometimes get a bit disoriented over land.
We are not particularly fond of areas like the north east sucking up all the insurance money since we have the strictest of building codes here in South florida.
In the Keys we get a big storm and we get for the most part minimal damage since we are ready for it.
We build 11` feet off the ground using concrete.
Big difference between how structures are built on the rest of the east coast.
Still we pay crazy insurance rates. My last house I paid 10k per year for insurance.
This storm is not supposed to come Into the Gulf (I hope). We have had our first front from the north west , so that would keep it out.
Yeah we all do,steering currents are really tough to determine some times until almost the last minute.
I’ll be surprised if this winds up being a GOM storm that would be quite a turn.
It seems to be stuck where it is... maybe it’ll stay there a couple of days and burn up its energy... don’t know if it works that way or not.
It is now moving 7mph NNW, by the way.
I think it’s going to hit Montana.
Great point. Big powerful storms have tended to bounce near land. The mountains of Cuba are a factor too.
Wow!
I think it was forecast to slow down just before it makes the turn north or NW. Tracking these things this far out is tough at best.
Here is an accu-weather take from earlier this morning:
..............
The East Coast of the United States remains on alert for potential impacts from Hurricane Matthew during the middle to latter part of this week.
Matthew, currently a Category 4 (major) hurricane in the Caribbean, is expected to track northward from eastern Cuba to the Bahamas Tuesday into Wednesday.
Beyond that, the hurricane could track along or near the U.S. East Coast.
While there will be some impact from the storm on the U.S., how significant impacts are along the Atlantic Seaboard will depend on Matthew’s strength and proximity to the coast.
At this time, possible tracks range from an initial landfall along the southern Atlantic coast to a storm remaining a few hundred miles offshore.
Into early this week, the speed of Matthew and how it interacts with other weather systems will be a determining factor on impact on the U.S.
Initially, Matthew will emerge out of the Caribbean as it tracks northward between an area of high pressure over the Atlantic and a dip in the jet stream over the eastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Mike Doll.
Where exactly this atmosphere highway sets up between these two features will determine how close Matthew comes to Florida.
The next key weather system will likely be a storm system set to track into the central U.S. by Tuesday.
“If that system is slower to reach the eastern U.S., the chance that Matthew hits the Carolinas is greater,” Doll said.
Significant impacts from rain, wind and flooding could then spread up the East Coast.
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“If the system is faster, it could then pick up Matthew and kick it out to sea,” Doll said.
Even in this scenario, Matthew may still impact a smaller part of the East Coast before getting steered away. It is also possible that Matthew initially gets pushed away from the coast, but then gets drawn back into New England or the Maritime Provinces of Canada.
“The key message is that we cannot rule out a direct impact along the East Coast,” Doll said. “However, confidence is high that Matthew will not track into the Gulf of Mexico.”
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno cited some similarities of the weather pattern that could unfold next week to that of Hurricane Hazel in 1954.
Matthew will first have to cross over eastern Cuba early this week, which will cause the hurricane to weaken. However, strengthening is likely as the storm pulls away from Cuba later in the week.
Once the hurricane emerges north of Cuba, the exact track of the storm during the middle and latter part of the week will become more clear.
By then, the position and movement of other weather systems will be more set in stone and should lend a clue as to a track at sea or a turn toward the U.S. coast.
Should Matthew remain offshore of the East Coast, impacts would be minimal. However, there will still be a period of rough surf, strong rip currents, beach erosion and dangerous seas that shifts northward.
People along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S. may want to consider securing their small craft and preparing to protect property against stormy conditions, should Matthew turn toward land.
Coastal, shipping and cruise interests from Miami, Florida, to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina; Cape Cod, Massachusetts; and Bar Harbor, Maine, should closely monitor the progress of Matthew.
Beyond the U.S., people living in or venturing to Bermuda and the Maritime
.............................>P?
basically what it says is after it goes across cuba it will regain strength and we can start forecasting where it will go.Til then its hard to diagnose.
One of the problems as I see it now is that a re-strengthening Matthew in the straits of Florida after crossing Cuba could easily wobble left or right,East or West. These wobbles can be truly important but won’t be known until the last minute.
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