Posted on 09/26/2016 6:24:59 AM PDT by KavMan
(CNN)Just one point separates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in two states that are critical to both candidates' chances of becoming president, according to new CNN/ORC polls in Pennsylvania and Colorado.
In Colorado, likely voters break 42% for Trump, 41% for Clinton, 13% for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3% for Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Pennsylvania's likely voters split 45% for Clinton, 44% for Trump, 6% for Johnson and 3% for Stein. Those divides are well within each poll's 3.5-point margin of sampling error.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Amen.
BUT...
Isn’t this “oversampling” due largely in part to the fact that there are MORE Democrats?
No. Depends on the state. PA? Yes. FL, CO, NV, AZ, no. Nationally? 50/50 says Gallup.
Can’t speak for CO, but Hillary is not ahead in PA, never was going to win here. Unless Trump self destructs tonight he’ll take PA by at least 300k votes and I expect him to take it by a good bit more. Personally I expect Trump to get 3M votes, possibly more in PA. Hillary most likely can’t put 2.5M votes in the box in PA.. 2.6 at the max.
The dems' believe in equality of outcomes.
Being dead is an outcome, they want us all equally dead... eventually, you may vote 'dem too!
The Johnson vote will go to Trump if they get more comfortable with him.
I live in a suburb of Pittsburgh and have yet to see a Hillary sign. During the primary season I saw a lot of Bernie signs. I also have a camp in the Punxy/Brookville area and see lots of Trump signs and (so far) zero Hillary signs. Up there I see lots of home made Trump signs. Well made, 4x4 posts and thick plywood. Also I saw 1 “NO MORE CLINTONS!” SIGN.
He’s been running higher in PA polling than he has nationally.. Pretty consistent, but come Election Day really doubt he’ll be double digits in PA.
Wow, with this poll...in the RCP poll averages, Clinton’s lead in Colorado is now at 0.2%.
One more poll showing Trump tied or one up....then....Colorado flips (using the “no toss ups” methodology), and the winner flips (again, using the “no toss ups” method).
Yeah......democrats are stinking cheaters.
Trump is going to win CO and PA.
Fat Lady is singing. Washington Post just brought out an anti-Trump editorial broadside today.
Love it! The MSM and Left are circling what’s left of the fort.
Before Trump storms it.
Its been just over 2 weeks since Hillary’s seizure on 9-11 and the polls are tightening up?
Personally, I think it is media manipulation to fabricate or spin polls to making them ‘close’ now leading into the first debate.
I predict another incident during the debate that will call into question the health of hillary.
i have a conference in the atl so i’ll be hotel on 11/8... hopefully we’ll watch as NC goes trump, then Va, then PA!, if that happens i’m buying the next three rounds of Jameson b/c that’s it.
Excellent response!!!
The only problem I have with such polls is that we were told virtually the same thing in the last three presidential elections. Pennsylvania was in play, we were told, only to be totally disappointed on Election Day.
So I'm always mindful of the fact that polls are not intended to elucidate, but to to manipulate.
I was wondering during the summer when Trump was going to buy some ADS. It’s very clear to me now that Trump decided very early on to employ the “Rope-A-Dope” strategy to defeat Hillary. Now that she is weakened he will carpet bomb her with Ad Buys. IMHO lol
Whose word choice was “deadlock”?
If CNN, then I’d wager it was chosen as a dig as the dead are in fact voting in Colorado.
“How come dead people always vote Democrat?”
They think the “D” after a candidate’s name stands for “Dead” and that therefore they are voting for one of their own. The dead are racist like that, you know.
"...never mind"
_______________________________________
Clinton dreadlocked in Colorado
Hillary is TOAST in PA... has been from the get go.
Doesn’t have any innate support ANYWHERE and absolutely zero enthusiasm.
Trump has more enthusiasm than ANY R candidate I have ever seen in this state, and I have been here since 86.
Here’s the raw reality folks:
08 Obama got just shy of 3.3M votes and had huge enthusiasm. 12 Obama got just shy of 3M votes and had far less enthusiasm than 08. In 08 Mccain put 2.65M votes in the box, and in 12 Romney got 2.68. Neither had any strong enthusiasm here... So a Generic R with no enthusiasm can get about 2.7M votes in PA.
Hillary is nowhere, NOWHERE near Obama’s support in 12. Hell she has nowhere the support KERRY had.... I believe she will be lucky if she can put 2.5M ishh votes in the box on election day in PA. I expect Trump to be around 3M votes in PA at least. He may even outscore Obama’s 12 haul depending on a few factors.
The idea she ever was going to hold PA, has been laughable from day one.
Even fellow democrat Senate candidate is running ads against sitting R claiming he has voted to send jobs oversees. Trump is going to take the rust belt.. Only states Hillary has a shot as holding are MN and IL there.
Trump is going to take the rust belt.. Only states Hillary has a shot as holding are MN and IL there.
I again think Hillary will be LUCKY if she get 60M total votes on election day, and holds her loss to single digits., and manages 10 ish states.
Those not from the rust belt aren’t getting the trend.. and its being ignored and its HUGE. Working class folks are ABANDONING the democrat party in DROVES... You are seeing in the rust belt the same thing that happened in the southern states, not a one time shift, but the beginnings of a GENERATIONAL shift away from the Demcorat party, much like the south did in the 50s and 60s and finalized in the 70s, and for much of the same fundamental reasons. The recognition that the party has abandoned fundamental tenants of good social constructs, and the working classes are witnessing the result of it. This could have happened long ago, but Republicans had not put up a candidate able to sell it up here in a long time, and the Dems had not quite go so insanely overboard and the damage of their policies were not so wide spread... Today, up here, the evidence is EVERYWHERE... Obama and the left finally crossed the rubicon... No one is realizing that it is the left, not the right that is in long term danger structurally. Assuming Republicans do not blow it, they are truly looking at a shift that will make the midwest and midatlantic as solid for them as the south for generations.. I don’t think ANYONE is remotely recognizing the truth here...
Yes Hillary is a disaster of a candidate... no doubt, but there is MUCH MUCH more going on here than just She’s a lying corrupt fraud. Its also bigger more than just Nationalism vs Globalism (though that is without a question the driving decision in THIS election)... but there is MORE going on here.... much more... and if Republicans are smart (big if I know) historians will look back on 2016 and it will be remembered as the year of the start of the loss of the midwest/midatlantic from the Dems.. literally this area could become as reliable as the south for R’s if they wake up, and don’t blow it going forward.
I know this is hard to see for most, especially those outside the area, this election is so dominated by individual personalities, that this larger message is being lost... but this isn’t just some Reagan thing where D’s here are going to go Trump and then go back to D... there is an undercurrent going on here, that is far bigger than a solo cycle... and its being completely missed because everyone is so focused on the surface frothing... and yes there is a lot of it, but this undercurrent, this is greater than a single cycle... its a fundamental shift that will reverberate for decades in American politics... its been building for a while... it probably won’t be fully recognized by most folks until long after the election is over... but Dems are losing far more in the rust belt than they know... or comprehend.... and its not just because Hillary is a lousy candidate.
To fully capitalize on this, Republican’s have to shift on a few things, and Trump is moving the party forward in a lot of ways, I don’t know if the powers that be recognize it, and I know some of their core constituencies won’t be happy as they are going to lose some of their influence... but if the leadership and party is willing to recognize and adapt, it will be able to accomplish something semi organically that they were never able to do, or never tried to do, systemically.
Time will tell.
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