Posted on 09/22/2016 3:42:54 AM PDT by PapaBear3625
see chart at site
(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
The Trump number seems to be declining by the day.
The other polls will show him moving up.
This is one of a number of polls which are all going to be different.
Yes!
Fluctuating within the margin of error. This poll doesn’t need to be breaking news everyday.
Reuters has him moving up.
There was a three day “blip” up in African American support (which shows up for 3 + 7 days, each sample in the mix for 7 days). That has run its course. The current standing is the “new normal” for this poll.
It has been a busy week—new terrorist attacks, non-response from Clinton and Obama, Clinton still breathing but sick and sidelined, now riots in Charlotte. While all reflect poorly on Clinton and Obama, I think the news is likely overwhelming to a lot of people and those not already engaged in the campaign are kind of holding their breath. The debate next week will bring the campaign back in focus. Until then, I suspect both campaigns will stay in the margin of error.
My guess is it starts moving the other way again. But we are at the point where state polls matter more. Especially in OH, FL, PA, NV, CO, VA, NC, MI, IA, NH.
After the Riots I expect Trump to open a bigger lead.
How the hell is Hillary recovering? What has she done & what has TRUMP done badly?
I know that many are encouraged by this poll, but I think this poll showed Romney ahead in 2012. Let’s hope all the polls are underestimating Trump like all those polls that underestimated Brexit - by 8 points.
Don’t forget WI.
I don’t think this poll existed in 2012
Polls are not like applying a voltmeter to a circuit. Every blip up or down does not reflect reality.
It rose on Clinton’s health collapse
It started declining on the attacks by everyone against Trump after the new york bombings.
Trump needs an innoculation against a concerted media attack that claims he is impulsive. It wasn’t fair but it is what happened.
I think this goes beyond fixing by a steady debate performance. That will help for that period of time, but we know from the primaries that they overload on this kind of attack when they are desperate to see trump’s numbers decline.
What will totally innoculate against this charge once and for all?
1. Perhaps if it is reframed as he acts while others freeze and get disoriented.
2. Trump fights while others cower
3. Active beats passive
4. Advisors are good but a leader must be able to read signs/trends with clarity in emergent events
At this point, there appears to be no way to get the thumb suckers and bed wetters here at FR to ever understand or admit that the polls are pure unadulterated bullshiite. Trump is not now, nor has he ever been, behind in this race, since the beginning of the primaries to this very day. Any poll that asserts otherwise is complete and utter bullshiite.
As the Rand poll in 2012 - same methodology - this poll never showed Romney ahead after the Democrat convention.
It was one of the most accurate polls in 2012 -- a year that was so bad for conventional polling that Gallup gave up.
That's why we ("We" = "ABC" = "Anybody But Clinton") have been encouraged by this poll.
It is still looking very good for Trump.
At this time in 2012, it was Obama 49.8 Romney 43.6
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