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The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll (T: 45.4, C: 43)
cesrusc.org ^ | 9/21/16

Posted on 09/22/2016 3:42:54 AM PDT by PapaBear3625

see chart at site

(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; clinton; elections; polls; trump
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1 posted on 09/22/2016 3:42:54 AM PDT by PapaBear3625
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To: PapaBear3625

The Trump number seems to be declining by the day.


2 posted on 09/22/2016 3:44:11 AM PDT by Theodore R. (Trump-Pence, 2016)
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To: PapaBear3625

The other polls will show him moving up.


3 posted on 09/22/2016 3:46:30 AM PDT by ConservativeMind ("Humane" = "Don't pen up pets or eat meat, but allow infanticides, abortion, and euthanasia.")
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To: PapaBear3625

This is one of a number of polls which are all going to be different.


4 posted on 09/22/2016 3:46:40 AM PDT by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
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To: ConservativeMind

Yes!


5 posted on 09/22/2016 3:46:54 AM PDT by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
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To: Theodore R.

Fluctuating within the margin of error. This poll doesn’t need to be breaking news everyday.


6 posted on 09/22/2016 3:47:02 AM PDT by Helicondelta (Deplorable)
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To: ConservativeMind

Reuters has him moving up.


7 posted on 09/22/2016 3:48:09 AM PDT by Helicondelta (Deplorable)
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To: Theodore R.

There was a three day “blip” up in African American support (which shows up for 3 + 7 days, each sample in the mix for 7 days). That has run its course. The current standing is the “new normal” for this poll.


8 posted on 09/22/2016 3:48:40 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: PapaBear3625

It has been a busy week—new terrorist attacks, non-response from Clinton and Obama, Clinton still breathing but sick and sidelined, now riots in Charlotte. While all reflect poorly on Clinton and Obama, I think the news is likely overwhelming to a lot of people and those not already engaged in the campaign are kind of holding their breath. The debate next week will bring the campaign back in focus. Until then, I suspect both campaigns will stay in the margin of error.


9 posted on 09/22/2016 3:50:56 AM PDT by Reno89519 (It is very simple, Trump/Pence or Clinton/Kaine. Good riddance Lyn' Ted, we regret ever knowing you)
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To: Theodore R.

My guess is it starts moving the other way again. But we are at the point where state polls matter more. Especially in OH, FL, PA, NV, CO, VA, NC, MI, IA, NH.


10 posted on 09/22/2016 3:51:01 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (It is a wise man who rules by the polls but it is a fool who is ruled by them)
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To: Cboldt

After the Riots I expect Trump to open a bigger lead.


11 posted on 09/22/2016 3:51:42 AM PDT by scooby321 (o even lower)
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How the hell is Hillary recovering? What has she done & what has TRUMP done badly?


12 posted on 09/22/2016 3:58:58 AM PDT by KavMan
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To: PapaBear3625

I know that many are encouraged by this poll, but I think this poll showed Romney ahead in 2012. Let’s hope all the polls are underestimating Trump like all those polls that underestimated Brexit - by 8 points.


13 posted on 09/22/2016 4:00:17 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: SamAdams76

Don’t forget WI.


14 posted on 09/22/2016 4:07:00 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: profit_guy

I don’t think this poll existed in 2012


15 posted on 09/22/2016 4:07:16 AM PDT by Helicondelta (Deplorable)
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To: KavMan
How the hell is Hillary recovering? What has she done & what has TRUMP done badly?

Polls are not like applying a voltmeter to a circuit. Every blip up or down does not reflect reality.

16 posted on 09/22/2016 4:07:29 AM PDT by Flick Lives (TRIGGER WARNING - Posts may require application of sarcasm filter)
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To: Theodore R.

It rose on Clinton’s health collapse

It started declining on the attacks by everyone against Trump after the new york bombings.

Trump needs an innoculation against a concerted media attack that claims he is impulsive. It wasn’t fair but it is what happened.

I think this goes beyond fixing by a steady debate performance. That will help for that period of time, but we know from the primaries that they overload on this kind of attack when they are desperate to see trump’s numbers decline.

What will totally innoculate against this charge once and for all?

1. Perhaps if it is reframed as he acts while others freeze and get disoriented.

2. Trump fights while others cower

3. Active beats passive

4. Advisors are good but a leader must be able to read signs/trends with clarity in emergent events


17 posted on 09/22/2016 4:08:58 AM PDT by xzins ( Free Republic Gives YOU a voice heard around the globe. Support the Freepathon!)
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To: PapaBear3625

At this point, there appears to be no way to get the thumb suckers and bed wetters here at FR to ever understand or admit that the polls are pure unadulterated bullshiite. Trump is not now, nor has he ever been, behind in this race, since the beginning of the primaries to this very day. Any poll that asserts otherwise is complete and utter bullshiite.


18 posted on 09/22/2016 4:15:30 AM PDT by DrPretorius
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To: profit_guy
"I think this poll showed Romney ahead in 2012"

As the Rand poll in 2012 - same methodology - this poll never showed Romney ahead after the Democrat convention.

It was one of the most accurate polls in 2012 -- a year that was so bad for conventional polling that Gallup gave up.

That's why we ("We" = "ABC" = "Anybody But Clinton") have been encouraged by this poll.

https://alpdata.rand.org/?page=election2012

19 posted on 09/22/2016 4:15:32 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Every nation has the government it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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To: profit_guy
No, profit_guy, the poll you are referring to showed Romney ahead only briefly and by the thinnest of margins right after the convention.

It is still looking very good for Trump.

At this time in 2012, it was Obama 49.8 Romney 43.6

"https://alpdata.rand.org/?page=election2012"

20 posted on 09/22/2016 4:17:04 AM PDT by Corpus_Delicious
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