Posted on 09/20/2016 11:34:23 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT
West Long Branch, NJ - Hillary Clinton holds a 5 point lead over Donald Trump in the crucial swing state of Florida. This is slightly less than the 9 point lead she held in a Monmouth University Poll of Sunshine State voters taken last month. Sen. Marco Rubio is currently locked in a tight race with his Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy, ahead by a statistically insignificant 2 points after leading by 5 in August. The poll also found that voters are skeptical of Trump's recent attempt to draw a line under the Pres. Obama birther controversy.
Among Florida voters likely to participate in November's presidential election, 46% currently support Clinton and 41% back Trump. Another 6% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with 5% who are undecided. This compares to Monmouth's August poll which had Clinton at 48%, Trump 39%, Johnson 6%, and Stein 1%.
Its not that he’s bad, its that he’s biased....
Look at the trending lines in his prediction model... Notice something that happened on 9/1? Suddenly the average angle of the line of Trumps rise lowered... and has remained lower, even though Hillary clearly had the worst few days of the campaign from 9-9 to 9-11.. and still the average linear progression of Trumps growth has remained at the slower rate...
Even while his model has given Trump NC, NV, OH, FL and has shown that Trump is a mere small state away from 270, this has all happened in the last week or two, and he still has the trending line way down from where it was pre 9/1...
So he’s biased, but not a complete fool. Based on his map Trump is basically NH away from securing 270... he clearly has momentum flipping several states, and growing, and while he has upped Trumps odds to 43% vs high 30s a few weeks ago, its laughable that if Trump only nees 3 more EC votes, and yes, if you play his map out, that’s where it is... with the momentum he is showing, that Trump only has a less than 44% chance of the win.
He’s manipulating, not as bad as some of the other guys, but clearly he’s adjusted his play to make Hillary’s collapse not look as bad as its been...
I admit it's an improvement over the Emerson poll from early September (which I'm still including in my average). That one was 44% to 35% for Clinton.
-PJ
-PJ
400 LV with MOE 4.9 so it’s a statistical tie
“What does “weighted” mean?”
-—Means they took their raw data and weighted it according to whatever voter turnout model they are using. Example: if 2012 turnout was 40%(D) 30%(R) 10%(I) they extract from raw data those percentages.
The MOE on that Monmouth Poll has an MOE of 4.9% which renders it totally worthless.
In my model, I had Trump at 40% chance, now down to 38% based on this week's polls so far.
The big difference for me is that I do not sauce the polls, so if pollsters play with the outcomes, that will carry over into my model. Hopefully, poll averaging will smooth some of that out.
-PJ
Ah.. in other words, they made it up.
Florida has voter ID. I have to show my driver’s license to vote. That should help cut down fraud, except in absentee ballots.
I wish Trump would run some ads here in Maine.
I live here and I have not seen one on TV or heard one on the radio.
I haven’t seen any for the Bengazi b*tch, either, except during the Olympics.
The problem for Trump is that he has alienated and pissed off the media so much that they refuse to report any positive aspect of his campaign. Now, a case could be made that the press deserves it, but they have far too much influence on this country still. I look forward to the day they don’t, but that requires winning this election first. I suspect we haven’t seen the worst of what’s to come from the press, DEMs, and Obama leading up to Election Day, and likely beyond that.
Like all the other lies the media is promoting.. what makes you’all think they would give an honest poll!!!!!
Come on..the only ones voting for hillary are the ones promoting these numbers... look at the rallies Trump has and look at the ones hill has.. don’t tell me the hill is in the lead. And don’t crucify Trump for going to never-never land where the other voters are.. he is planning on winning this... he started out determined and he’s still determined...it’s not in him to lose.
Can you imagine a non-Hillary candidate they wouldn't hate? They're consistent in hating Trump all the way, but if you look back to 2008, they loved McCain until the day he was nominated, then turned 180 degrees on him.
The only difference here is that they hate Trump long time, and he hates them back rather than courting them.
‘Just like with SurveyMonkey(NBC) this morning showing Clinton +5..they call it surveymonkey because only a monkey would believe it’
Yeah- a monkey and apparently NYC-RepublicanCT...
I know. That’s exactly right
36%D 34%I 32%R
55% Women
Why so many women? Is there that high a percentage of women that vote?
4 problems with this poll:
1. IDEOLOGY SPLIT - The conservative/liberal ideology split too small. Should be +12-15. It’s only +8.
2. CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT - Trump and Rubio are not even getting 80% of conservatives. Both Murphy and Clinton are pulling in around 20% of conservatives. Not going to happen.
3. INCOMES - Votes based by incomes seem WAY off. Trump and Rubio are losing middle class $50k-$100k by DOUBLE DIGITS. Trump is actually losing by 20 points, Rubio by 15. Republicans historically win these by double digits. Romney beat Obama 54-44 in this income bracket. Trump is running away with this income bracket in other FL polls.
4. EDUCATION - Trump is only up 3 (47-44) with No College Degree. Rubio is up 15 with same demo. This is Trump’s demo.
Monmouth has a good rep. But this just seems too odd.
Yes. Florida is generally 55-45 split, or in that area.
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