400 LV with MOE 4.9 so it’s a statistical tie
4 problems with this poll:
1. IDEOLOGY SPLIT - The conservative/liberal ideology split too small. Should be +12-15. It’s only +8.
2. CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT - Trump and Rubio are not even getting 80% of conservatives. Both Murphy and Clinton are pulling in around 20% of conservatives. Not going to happen.
3. INCOMES - Votes based by incomes seem WAY off. Trump and Rubio are losing middle class $50k-$100k by DOUBLE DIGITS. Trump is actually losing by 20 points, Rubio by 15. Republicans historically win these by double digits. Romney beat Obama 54-44 in this income bracket. Trump is running away with this income bracket in other FL polls.
4. EDUCATION - Trump is only up 3 (47-44) with No College Degree. Rubio is up 15 with same demo. This is Trump’s demo.
Monmouth has a good rep. But this just seems too odd.