Posted on 09/19/2016 8:25:29 AM PDT by mandaladon
As Donald Trump has caught up with Hillary Clinton in the polls, he has likewise closed the gap in the electoral college. Ipsos/Reuters says the race to 270 votes is now nearly tied. Many are focusing on Maine, which allocates its electoral college votes by Congressional district, and where one district going for Trump might change the result.
A reader who has been studying the numbers sends a link to 538 (“Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week”) and adds:
I presume Trump wins Nevada. Adjusting for that, if this is accurate Trump loses 265 – 273. So he needs New Hampshire desperately to tie, and then win in the House…or NH plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District for a bare win 270 – 268, second closest in history.
That could be right. But I think more likely, Trump will win rather easily, and win going away as he did the Republican primaries. I expect him to carry states like Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, maybe even Pennsylvania. Why? Two reasons.
The first can be explained with an old story from the world of marketing:
A company came out with a new dog food, and hired an advertising firm to promote the product. The ad agency placed commercials on television and ads in magazines; millions of dollars went into the campaign. The commercials and ads were first-rate, but still the dog food did not sell. The client called a meeting at the ad agency and demanded to know what had gone wrong.
After a moment of silence, the leader of the ad agency team explained: “The dogs don’t like it.”
(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...
If the ballots are “counted fairly. When you have 148% of Wood Cty, Ohio, registered voters (as if that’s possible) voting only for Obama, and Cuyahoga Cty, Ohio, giving Obama 110% of the registered voters’ support (again . . . if that’s possible), coupled with the Stupid Party’s unwillingness to expose the fraud, it’s going to be a rough road.
I’m sure the ballots are being filled out right now and will be delivered to any precinct that needs them.
And I’m still waiting for Gloria Allred’s last minute discovery of some woman or women who got their butts pinched by Trump.
There is no excuse for ignorance.
Never underestimate the ignorance of the American people. They have proven themselves over and over. It sits in the White Hut right now.
"...most Americans have a pretty good sense of fair play, and they know that Trump is being treated badly by the establishment–a group for whom most Americans have no great affection."
I think Trump will be the one to make it hot for Hillary.
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Trump can do so by bringing Hillary’s actions into every answer. That can be done even
if the example isn’t closely connected to the topic being discussed. The mods will try
to protect Hillary but I suspect Trump will keep the pressure on. It should be interesting.
“Electoral vote by congressional district would have resulted in a Hussein loss in 2012.”
I really think this should be the next Constitutional amendment proposed and ratified. We need an update of the Great Compromise given how disenfranchised I and many Californians feel during state-wide and national elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney won 24 states and a total of 206 electoral votes. Given the vast drop in enthusiasm from Obama to Hillary, I think Trump will retain those states.
(AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, AD, IN, KN, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NEB, NC, NDAK, OK, SC, SDAK, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY).
Trump needs an additional 64 electoral votes to win.
In 2012, Obama won 95 electoral votes by relatively low %’s, some with extremely low popular vote margins. These should be in play, and polls seem to say they are: CO 9; FL 29; Iowa 6; Nev 6; NH 4; OH 18; VA 13; Wisc 10.
Obama won another tranch of 51, by slightly higher margins:
NM 5, by 79,547 votes. 10.15%
Minn 10, by 225,942 votes. 7.69%
PA 20, by only 309,840 votes. 5.38%
Mich 16, by 449,313 votes. 9.48%
Maine 4, by 109,030 votes. 15.29%
The last group will be tough. In 2008 and even 2012 Obama drew huge crowds, and many Republicans were not thrilled with either McCain or Romney. Hillary barely draws flies even at on-campus events, when she struggles out of bed to show up. People are just fed up with the tired, entitled politicians that Hillary so perfectly represents. The enthusiasm gap wins it for Trump.
Hillary is the nasty HR lady not the messiah racial healer Obama played the suckers for.
Well I wouldn't go that far! Ronald Reagan only beat Jimmy Carter by 10 points. So winning by 20 is going to be a stretch. Even if the Democrats nominated Charles Manson, they would still get 40 per cent of the vote.
I'll settle for a 5-10 percentage victory. I think that will be enough to offset any tomfoolery.
I also think that the people are finally turning against the MSM. They definitely overplayed their hand in their demonizing of Trump. Now Trump supporters are pissed and will vote for him no matter what.
Congressional Districts + Senators would be a way. But as you point out it cuts both ways. In
Texas the GOP would lose 11 CD votes. It would be interesting to see how they would break out
and I suspect examples from previous elections have been made. I’ve just not looked for any.
you THINK
I know
Trump will win
Maine
VT
NH
RI
NJ
possibly
NY
Michigan
50 days left and Hillary has to survive the debates, AND there is very little wiggle room after the last debate, AND terrorism is reemerging.
It’s going to be a blowout if the media can’t absolutely destroy Trump.
I think the debates will be heavily stacked in Hillary’s favor. The media who supports Hillary know this is most likely Hillary’s last chance and will do what it takes.
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They can stack all they want. They have never managed to best Trump since he declared his candidacy. He has been up front and center too many years to be made a fool of by wet-behind- the-ears anti-American commies and socialists. Trump
represents America First and he will win. Just have a little faith. Trump knows what he is doing and he will use some humor to throw the idiots out the door in the debates.
Wild swings in the polls in Jul-Aug show over 20% were undecided plus 10% for 3d parties. Now in September some undecided have decided for Trump. Newt convinced anti-Trumpsters in GA to go to Trump. Similar happens in other states. The move to Trump has no carrot or stick other than dislike of Clinton.
People are scared of the unknown... and of people who don’t fit into the pigeon-holes of their mind. The more Trump and his non-political style become familiar the less scary he becomes. Clinton cannot increase the fear of Trump.
Hinderaker says: establishment can do its best to jam her down our throats.
Other than fear of Trump, Clinton can use carrots and sticks. Many Bernie supporters and ordinary people work for government funded non-profits, including Universities. Will Clinton’s surrogates threaten their funding? In what ways can Clinton be jammed down the throats of the undecided?
No.
I had the impression Chuck Todd was reacting to the criticism of Matt Lauer for going too easy on Trump.
In interviewing Trump manager Conway, Todd jumped the shark in blatant partisanship. Conway was winning. Mysteriously there were technical difficulties and when they came back Todd had regained his composure and pretty much conceded the debate to Conway.
The media is only fooling themselves and Hillary supporters.
Given the nature and history of his opponent, this is a real concern.
You and me and many undecideds are being driven to Trump by the media.
If the media wants to defeat Trump they need to redefine him as their darling, an endorsement from Dan Rather and from Edward R. Murrow. (If the dead can vote they can endorse.)
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