Posted on 09/12/2016 1:40:57 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
The newly elected president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, has been throwing shade on his countrys recently-acquiredand onlyfighter jets, the South Korean FA-50 Golden Eagle.
We only have what, two FA-50s? Why did you buy that? he remarked [3] in June this year. What a waste of money. You cannot use them for anti-insurgency, which is the problem at the moment. You can only use these for ceremonial fly-by. (The Philippine Air Force will have 12 of the supersonic fighters by 2017.)
He added: Theres only one purpose for buying it. To match the airpower . . . At least 1-on-1 verses China. But, beyond Scarborough Shoal, son of a gambler, there are 300 Migs there. They can reach Manila in 6 minutes.
While campaigning in March, Duterte had opined that the FA- 50s were a waste of money that they had no chance of taking on Chinese fighters. Im not going to war over Scarborough Shoal, he commented, referring to islands off of the Philippine coast which are contested by China.
The infamously hot-tempered Duterte has recently made the news for calling [4] U.S. President Obama a son of a whore in a press conference, leading to the cancellation of a scheduled meeting between the two at the ASEAN conference in Laos. Duterte was obviously more incensed at the prospect of being chided for encouraging vigilante killings [5] of drug dealers than by Chinas expansion into the waters off of his island nations shores [6].
These seemingly unrelated incidents actually point to a similar dynamic in play: the new Asian leader is wary of being drawn into an unofficial American-led alliance to counter Chinese expansion in the Pacific Ocean. He would prefer to avoid confronting Beijing, and redirect the significant military expenditures on anti-drug and anti-insurgent campaigns.
Chinas recent aggressive expansion in the waters of the South China Sea is based on the so-called Nine-Dash Line. In the case of the Philippines, the dispute concerns both the Spratly Islands (also claimed by Vietnam) and Scarborough Shoal, which lies over 200 kilometers East of the main Philippine island of Luzon and over 1,000 kilometers southeast of Chinas Hainan island. You can to judge the fairness of the Nine-Dash line for yourself by considering the map here [7].
Chinas population exceeds that of the rest of the East Asian countries combined. Nonetheless, Japan and South Korea have little intention of dancing to Chinas tune, and Vietnam, for historical reasons, is highly sensitive to perceived bossiness from its northern neighbor. The Philippines previous president, Benigno Aquino, had pursued plans to contest the Chinese claims to nearby waters and modernize the Philippine armed forces with U.S. assistance. Recently, a tribunal finally ruled against the Chinese claims [8] in the South China Sea, though Beijing had earlier indicated it would not abide by its decision.
However, Duterte thinks money invested in countering China is wasted in a futile effort, and his country would be better served by taking a softer stance [9] with an important trading partner, while redirecting spending towards internal security crackdowns.
So were Dutertes scathing comments on the FA-50 merited?
The Golden Eagle: Nimble, Supersonic and Cheap:
The Golden Eagle was designed to serve as an advanced jet trainer by Korean Aerospace Industries (KAI), drawing on the firms experience license-producing F-16 Fighting Falcons. First conceived in 1997, the Golden Eagle drew on design elements of the Falcon, and also received 13% of its funding from Lockheed Martin. It made its first flight in 2002, becoming South Koreas first indigenously designed supersonic aircraft.
The T-50 Golden Eaglenot to be confused with the Russian stealth fighter [10]was intended to serve as a two-seat Lead-In Flight Trainer (LIFT), a fast but forgiving jet intended to prepare pilots for flying actual combat aircraft. Unlike the older trainers it is replacing, the T-50 can attain speeds of up to Mach 1.5 (over 1,100 miles per hour) and fly up to 48,000 feet high. This performance isnt impressive compared to frontline jet fighters, but its still capable enough to do the job. The T-50 is powered by a single General Electric F404 turbofan, though there is talk of trying out more powerful F414 or EJ200 engines down the line.
The T-50 trainers were deemed so successful and easy-handling that KAI decided to produce an upgraded version, the TA-50, that could do double duty as light attack plane with the ability to use precision-guided weapons and a more powerful radar.
KAI then pushed the design one step further with the FA-50an airplane intended to serve as a cut-price supersonic fighter [11] with fourth-generation avionics.
The FA-50, which made its first flight in 2011, adds greater fuel capacity and key avionics upgrades, including a radar-warning receiver to alert the pilot if he is being targeted by hostile radar, night-vision systems, and a data-link to integrate the airplane with friendly sensor and weapon platforms. Most importantly, it carries an Israeli EL/M-2032 pulse-Doppler radar with an effective range of 100 kilometers for detecting fighter-size aircraft. It can be used to lock on to air, ground and sea targets. The ELM nonetheless has shorter range and is less capable than the AESA radars now equipping U.S. fighters, and Samsung is apparently looking to develop an AESA radar for use in the Golden Eagle.
The FA-50, though highly maneuverable (it has a lower wing loading than the agile F-16, meaning can make tighter turns), is still not in the same league as top fourth-generation fighters. However, a factory fresh FA-50 costs around $30 to 35 million dollars, whereas those top-of-the-line fighters presently cost $70 to 100 million or more. Thus the FA-50 offers good bang for the buck and an accessible price point for less wealthy countries.
The FA-50s rangelikely under 1,100 milescould be problematic for some operators. While it is adequate to serve as a short-range fighterappropriate, say, for the compact distances of the Korean peninsulait is less convenient for the Philippines and its vast oceanic flank. A round trip from Manila to the Spratly Islands entails 1,000 miles of travel, leaving little fuel to loiter or do anything once the Golden Eagle arrives there. Though lacking aerial refueling capability, the FA-50 can extend its range to using extra fuel tanksbut would have to sacrifice hardpoints for carrying weaponry.
In air-to-air combat, the FA-50 still lacks the critical ability to fire beyond-visual range (BVR) missiles. It currently relies on short-range AIM-9M Sidewinders. KAI is reportedly working on integrating use of extra long-range AIM-120 Scorpions as well as superior short-range AIM-9X missiles.
In 2015 the Philippine Air Force announced it would upgrade three or four FA-50s to carry radar-guided AIM-7 Sparrow missiles [12] with ranges of 70 kilometers. The Sparrows would be a major improvementbut the upgrades would average $17 to $22 million per plane, at least half the cost of each FA-50. Given that the Sparrow is not a state-of-the-art missileit is not fire-and forget, so the pilot must keep his radar locked on the enemy fighter until it impactsthe price seems exorbitant. Possible explanations may include steep fixed costs, and/or the provision of Sparrow missile to go with the upgrade.
In any case, until the FA-50 is certified for carrying medium- or long-range missile, it wont really be up to the task of serving as an air-superiority fighter.
The FA-50s air-to-ground capabilities are far more satisfactory out of the box. It can employ deadly GPS-guided JDAM bombs, Maverick anti-tank missiles, and unguided cluster and conventional bombs and rockets. The Golden Eagles targeting computer and radar allow it to deliver even dumb bombs with a high degree of accuracy. The FA-50 can haul up to 8,500 pounds of external stores on 7 hardpoints. A triple-barreled A-50 20mm cannon rounds out the armament.
Support for more exotic precision weapons is also in the works. For example, the Republic of Korea Air Force is interested in mounting Taurus KEPD-350-2 cruise missiles with a 250-mile range on the FA-50. The Golden Eagle can also carry Lightning II targeting pods and devices optimized for reconnaissance or electronic warfare roles, as well as the Skyshield all-in-one countermeasure system that can ward off enemy missiles.
While the FA-50s air-to-air capabilities are not really feature-complete at present, potential upgrades to the engines, radar and especially air-to-air missiles suggest that the Golden Eagle may mature significantly in capability over time.
From Korea, Iraq and the Philippines to the U.S. Air Force?
The FA-50 already seems poised to see significant use in the coming decade based on outstanding orders for the aircraft.
The Republic of Korea Air Force flies over a hundred Golden Eagles: 49 T-50 trainers, 9 T-50B aerobatics demonstrators for its Black Eagles team, 22 TA-50s, and 20 FA-50s which began entering service last year. Orders for another 40 FA-50s are forthcoming.
The Iraqi Air Force has received 12 of a total 24 FA-50s this year in a $1.1 billion dollar contract ($45 million per airplane). They are reportedly intended to prepare pilots to fly Iraqs recently acquired F-16s, though they may also see use in ground attack missions against ISIS.
The Philippines has received four of its order of twelve FA-50s this yeardespite discreet Chinese protests [13] on the sale directed at Seoul. Manila has yet to acquire the Maverick and Sidewinder guided missiles the airplane requires to make full use of its capabilities. Originally, the Pacific nation intended to order another twelve in the next decade, but future orders are surely in doubt given Dutertes statements, even if adherence to the current contract is not in question. The Philippine Golden Eagles have recently trained in tandem with American EA-18 Growlers [14]. However, one recently lost its engine [15] as a result of a bird strike.
Indonesia finished receiving 16 TA-50 jets in 2014 at $25 million apiece (once has since crashed). They are intended to serve in the light attack role as well as training.
Finally, Thailand will receive four T-50 trainers in 2018 to replace its old L-39 Albatrosses.
Other potential buyers that would impact the Asian security environment include Vietnam [16], Pakistan [17], Taiwan [18] and Azerbaijan [19] (still locked in a conflict with neighboring Armenia). Uzbekistan has already been denied a sale because of U.S. fears that American components in the system could be transferred to Russia. In South America, Colombia and Peru are seen as potential customers.
Even the United States is considering adopting a new T-50A variant with in-flight refueling capacity to replace its aging T-38 Talon jet trainers. With heavy backing from Lockheed-Martin, the Korean plane is currently competing with Raytheon/Aeromacchis M-346 and Boeings T-X trainer. The procurement, to be announced in 2017, would be for at least 350 new jet trainers.
So, Was Duterte Right?:
The Philippines new president is correct about one thing. The FA-50, at least in its present state, is not up to the task of taking on opposing fighters. It lacks the range necessary to operate far over the Pacific, and is not yet certified to launch medium-and long-range air-to-air missiles that are essential to modern aerial warfare.
However, this was not the intention behind acquiring the FA-50. The idea was to wean the Philippine Air Force back into operating jet fighters [20] after having divested the last of its old F-5s in 2005and in particular, aircraft using sophisticated avionics. It will take time to train pilots and ground crews to fly and maintain such aircraft. The idea, as spelled out [21] by the planes advocates, is to use the FA-50 to bridge the gap to more-capableand more difficult to fly and maintainmulti-role fighters acquired once the Philippine Air Force was ready for them.
And contrary to Dutertes comments, the Golden Eagle does bring useful ground-attack and even anti-shipping ability through its ability to launch precision-guided munitions. If deployed on counter-insurgency missions, these would be an improvement over the dumb bombs the Philippine Air Force has used in the recent past.
Overall, the FA-50 is merely the first step in a long-term plan to modernize the Philippine Air Force and enable it to contest its home waters and airspace. It is a very expensive acquisition for the developing countrythe order cost $427 million while the Philippiness annual military budget in 2014 was $1.9 billion at the time. (The budget has increased over 50% since.)
Acquiring additional FA-50s and eventually more capable multi-role fighters would cost even more. A modernized Philippine Armed Forces could contribute to a Pacific defensive alliancebut would still be individually out-matched by Chinas vastly larger military.
Duterte clearly thinks investing additional money in opposing the Chinese is a losing bet. For now, he wants détente with Beijing and would rather focus on waging his bloody war on drugs [22]and against Islamic insurgentsat home. This, of course, does not play into [23] Washingtons containment strategy for the region, but the decision is Manilas to make.
Time will tell whether Duterte will be more successful in keeping his cool while negotiating with China than he has been with Obamaand the extent to which he will refocus or reduce the Philippine military modernization project.
Regardless, the Golden Eagle will likely keeps it place in the Philippine Air Force, though whether it will lead into further investment towards a more capable air arm remains to be seen.
I wonder if Duterte has ever heard the phrase “We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately.”?
As a Philippino told me, buying the Gripen would have been much better. Used Gripen C can be had for the same price or less. The first Gripen Cs cost also 30 million, as much as the FA 50
The Filipino answer would be that if you want me to make your enemies my enemies, give me an ironclad assurance that youve got my back. Like, for instance, a whole lot of military aid.
The US and the other Asians have been telling Manila to build up vs China for nearly a decade now, but they have helped very little.
The Gripen is better operationally, but what about politically? Currying favor with the U.S. with a half-Lockheed Martin product makes more sense than going with a Swedish design (albeit one with a American engine).
Favor with Lockmart and also Korea. That is good for presenting a united front to China. Probably can get some local/regional cross training going too. I think this is a good pick.
This is very much like what happens when a Filipino family has a member find work overseas: The family back in RP expects hefty financial support, even when the overseas worker has a family of their own in their new home to support. (Been there, done that.)
This is not a matter of the US asking RP to make China an enemy. In the absence of the US and RP's other Asian allies, China will eat major chunks of Filipino territory and very valuable resources. RP is the swimmer, China is the hungry shark. Where (and why) would the shark stop? Duterte says negotiate? He has NO strength or position to negotiate from, unless it comes from common cause with others. The RP on it's own? Good luck with that.
The Philippines is strategically indefensible. It has an almost purely air-naval problem of defense, against a world power. It is completely dependent on maritime trade not just for its foreign trade but also its entire domestic economy.
Geography is everything.
Vietnam can defy China by daring it to invade overland, and can live off its ricefields until the Chinese get tired of the slaughter as the enemy has to fight through hundreds of miles of earthworks defended by cheap light infantry. But the Philippines has to defend every internal shipping lane, using the highest technology means in large quantities against air, missile and submarine attack, or it starves. Heck, its got such internal bottlenecks that knocking out a series of highway bridges could make Manila uninhabitable.
The Philippines is a third world country with a first world defense problem. It would take an investment of @50billion to begin to credibly address its problem. Its entire government budget though is $50Billion.
So it needs very powerful friends or it needs to bend. That is the problem of geography.
Yep. The decision to push the US Navy out of Subic Bay will haunt them for decades.
“The decision to push the US Navy out of Subic Bay will haunt them for decades.”
I had a good laugh at that. Almost as much as I did when the U.S. Navy pulled out of Puerto Rico.
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