Posted on 09/01/2016 12:57:10 PM PDT by Kaslin
The road for Donald Trump to win the White House goes through Pennsylvania. Actually, all roads for Trump winning this election count on him taking the Keystone State and Florida (via Cook Report):
Trump, meanwhile, has only 4 paths to 270 [Clinton has 13]. And, all require winning BOTH Florida and Pennsylvania. The current Real Clear Politics Average of polls has Clinton up by nine points in Pennsylvania and 4.5 points in Florida. Unless and until Trump can turn those numbers around, there is no way he can win the election.
Yet, ever since new revelations about the Clinton Foundation were released last week, the former first lady has taken a nosedive in the polls. It became official when three national polls showed her dipping in support, though Trump still trailed her between five-to-seven points. He’s within striking distance; the Real Clear Politics average has him trailing less than five from all polls taken between the two candidates. At the same time, he’s trailing in states that he needs to win. So, it’s probably welcome news for the Trump team that Hillary’s lead in Pennsylvania has almost been cut in half (via The Hill):
Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump is down to seven points in the key battleground Pennsylvania, according to a new Franklin and Marshall College poll released Thursday morning.
Clinton has 47 percent support in the Keystone State, the poll found, with Trump at 40 percent.
The Democratic presidential nominee led by 11 points in the same poll last month, immediately following the Democratic National Convention.
Among registered voters, Clinton's lead drops to four points: 43 to 39 percent.
So, by the metrics, Pennsylvania is getting more competitive, but she’s a cold-hearted—especially with Republicans who haven’t won the state since 1988. It’s become a unicorn of sorts, with the GOP dumping money into the state, only to reap disappointment in the end. Nevertheless, this critical brick in the Democrats’ Northeastern Blue Wall has to be taken by Trump. That being said, perhaps the Trump campaign, fresh off a poll boost with new ammunition to use against Hillary Clinton, should do what Guy wrote about in early August: camp out in Florida and Pennsylvania.
Also, there’s this from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight:
Repeating myself a bit, but people underrate how fragile Clinton's Electoral College advantage will be if the race keeps tightening overall.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 31, 2016
“Also, there’s this from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight:
Repeating myself a bit, but people underrate how fragile Clinton’s Electoral College advantage will be if the race keeps tightening overall.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 31, 2016”
- - - -
Little clown Natee hedging his bets this time after being a big loser predicting Trump in the primaries. You’re gonna lose again little girl.
The union members have seen their jobs sent overseas, their wages cut by illegal aliens, while the politicians negotiate more and worse trade deals and refuse to defend the border.
The union members and former (laid off) union members _know_ what to do in November, and while some may lie to their “labor leaders” those labor leaders have heard enough of an earful to get the message.
(btw that applies to union folks of every race, creed, sex and sexual orientation—the Democrats have done harm to all of them)
Your post #8 is spot on. Excellent.
PA does have about a D+10 but the splits are wrong. In 2012 it was 45-35-20. So right there they under sampled Indies and I highly doubt PA will go D+10 for Hillary.
With those internals, I would think the Hildebeast should be up by at least double digits.
No kidding. There are 50+ precincts in Philly where Trump won’t get a single vote (based on what happened in 2012), and all the tombstones will be voting early and often.
James Carville was right about one thing: Pennsylvania is Philly in the east, Pittsburgh in the west, and Alabama in the middle. Anecdotal info says central and NE PA is awash in Trump yard signs, and other polls suggests he’s ahead of Hillary in those areas. But does he have an ads up in the state? Is there anything approaching a serious GOTV effort?
To win PA, Trump has to generate a plurality that puts the contest outside the MOF (Margin of Fraud) when the Philly totals come rolling in. Much easier said than done.
Biggest problem we have here in PA is that every day a few hundred more Democrats move here from NY, NJ and MD.
That's old-style thinking and a recipe for another disappointing loss. This is the 21st Century and a very inter-connected world. The notion that Trump needs to "camp out" in one or two states is ludicrous.
What Trump did yesterday in Mexico and Arizona were truly national events with massive media exposure. He won over far more people with his immigration speech in Phoenix last night than he would if he spent eight weeks going to a hundred small Pennsylvania towns just so he could shake hands and kiss babies.
Yes, by all means have some rallies in Florida and Pennsylvania but don't camp there and ignore the rest of the country.
It’s Shill 45 Trump 40 in the 4 way race with these guys.
Don’t know. I think Gallup has it D+3-4 but not sure
RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a
Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or as
something else?
39% Republican
49% Democrat
10% Independent
3% Something else
15% Dead
10% Illegal
10% Multiple voter
10% Multiple voter
10% Multiple voter
That’s more like it.
Bingo! We have a winner.
In my travels around Pennsylvania I often see Trump signs, never Hillary.
Of course I seldom travel in the blue districts.
Indeed those few blue districts are solidly red outside their big cities:
Biden has been campaigning for Mrs Clinton - well, somebody has to . . . Where’s Gaydar Kaine been?
If that happens and kaine marches w Biden in a PA Labor Day parade, then I’d say it’s a certainty that Biden takes over for the sick witch very soon.
The last parade drained ILLary after just one block.
“Actually, all roads for Trump winning this election count on him taking the Keystone State and Florida”
Actually, that’s total nonsense. He can get a win or tie (broken by the heavily Republican dominated state delegations in the House, where each state gets a single vote, so MT is as powerful as CA) by keeping Romney’s states and adding:
-FL, OH, and the three small swing states (NV, IA, NH)
-FL, OH, WI (where he’s only down by 3 in the latest poll), and 2 of the 3 small swing states
-FL, OH, WI, IA or NV, and the 1 electoral vote from Maine’s Congressional District 2
-FL, OH, MI (I think winning PA is more likely than winning MI though)
-FL, OH, VA, and any additional swing state (PA looks more doable than VA at this point, but looking at historical voting patterns that may not turn out to be the case)
-FL, OH, CO, and 2 of the 3 small swing states (ditto to what I said about VA in regard to CO)
7 points is still outside the margin of error. And she is uncomfortably close to 50.
Depends...public or private sector unions.
This is great news. Donald Trump is doing very well with the working class western part of the state, but poorly with the college educated Philly suburbs where Romney polled well. Hopefully they’re coming back into line after the latest Hillary corruption news.
Amen to that. Someday I will move to a more red state as sadly the eastern part of PA is becoming more blue due to the NY and NJ people moving in, and bringing their liberal beliefs with them.
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