Is There Silent Trump Support That Pollsters Are Missing? (Rasmussen confirms possible monster vote)

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 8/31/2016 | Rasmussen Reports

[usafa92]

Some have suggested that Donald Trump has hidden support among voters who are unwilling to say publicly where they stand because they’re fearful of criticism. We won’t know for sure until Election Day, but Republicans are clearly more reluctant than Democrats this year to say how they are going to vote.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 17% of Likely Republican Voters are less likely this year to let others know how they intend to vote compared to previous presidential campaigns. Just 10% of Likely Democratic Voters say they are less likely to tell.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 25% say they are less likely this year to say publicly which presidential candidate they will vote. Unaffiliateds have leaned in Trump’s direction in recent weeks in our White House Watch survey but also have been the biggest supporters of Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton and Trump have been running nearly even in our surveys for weeks. When either of them takes a lead, it’s generally been within our +/- 3 percentage point margin of error.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Democrats say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote this year, compared to 46% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Democrats, 32% of Republicans and 38% of unaffiliateds feel about the same when it comes to declaring their vote publicly as they have in past presidential election cycles.

The reluctance among GOP voters to speak out also may be due in part to the divisive primary battle that led to Trump’s nomination, with many establishment Republicans publicly rejecting the party’s chosen nominee. Sixty-six percent (66%) of Republicans believe that most top GOP leaders do not want Trump to be elected president of the United States. But only 27% of Republicans now believe the political attitudes of the party’s voters match up with those of party leaders.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 25 and 28, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

[Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.]

Most major media outlets have been strongly critical of many of Trump’s comments and positions. Voters continue to strongly believe that the media is more interested in controversy than in the issues when it comes to the presidential race. Among voters who support Trump, 76% think the media is blowing up his comments out of proportion. But 80% of Clinton supporters say Trump is careless with his comments.

Fifty percent (50%) of all voters think most reporters will try to help Clinton with their coverage, while only 11% believe they’ll try to help Trump.

Men are a bit less likely this year to say publicly whom they will vote for.

Voters under 40 are more likely than their elders to be holding back their Election Day choice. This is a potential area of worry for Clinton since younger voters are essential to her win.

A plurality (47%) of blacks say they are just as likely this year as any other year to say publicly how they are going to vote. Whites and other minority voters are more likely to let others know.

Twenty percent (20%) of both conservative and moderate voters are less likely to reveal their choice for president this year. Only 10% of liberals say the same.

A majority of voters believe the media, not the candidates, are setting the agenda this presidential election cycle.

Despite heavy criticism by Clinton and by the media, Trump’s recently announced plans for restricting immigration from terrorist countries and for ending U.S. nation-building efforts in the Middle East are supported by most voters.

After initially supporting the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Clinton under pressure from primary rival Bernie Sanders came out against the new trade deal endorsed by President Obama. Trump has long been critical of the TPP, NAFTA and other major free trade agreements, saying they have hurt the economy and taken away U.S. jobs. Voters are not big fans of these free trade deals, and Trump is hoping to peel away younger Sanders supporters from Clinton’s camp.

Generally speaking, when it comes to national security, the economy and other major issues, voters expect Clinton to continue Obama's policies and Trump to change them, for better or worse.

The economy remains the number one issue for all voters this election cycle, but Republicans are a lot more worried about national security than Democrats and unaffiliated voters are.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

[Gay State Conservative]

Popular vote, 1964. LBJ 61, Goldwater 38. Just sayin’

That's right.I don't know about you but *I'm* old enough to remember that.The Rats successfully labeled Goldwater as the one who would *literally* start WW III.And voters believed them.

Today's Rats are labeling Trump exactly the same way.Are you suggesting that The Former Twelfth Lady will take 47 states and DC?

[ripnbang]

I don’t really take polls seriously until the last week or two

IIRC, polls had Romney winning by 5 points the last week of 2012 election. That's not to say I disagree with the notion that there is a silent majority that will come out in droves to vote for Trump, because I do think that will happen. I do think the polls are off/skewed, etc....but I don't know by how much.

[deadrock]

My concern troll ulcer certainly hopes so.

[BigEdLB]

I remember it too. I was in grade school. My mom really liked Goldwater, and said some things about Johnson voters, and the media, to this day I can’t repeat...LOL

[sleepwalker]

A couple of points.

1. The Evangelical voters would not vote for Romney as they believe Mormons are the devil. We do not have that issue this time. If Romney had been a Methodist he would be president.

2. I have a Trump sticker on my car. I wear a Trump hat. So far no one has bothered me. I saw one other Trump sticker on I-70 yesterday. I have seen only one Hillary sticker.

[DJ Taylor]

"How many people attend the Clinton rallies versus how many people attend the Trump rallies."

Something I find disconcerting is the number of people I know who won't attend Trump rallies simply because they fear what will happen to them if they're forced to shoot one of "Obama's sons" while in defense of their lives. In other words, they fear their unjust Democrat run government more than they do the Democrat thugs on the street.

As the rule of law no longer exists in this country, we can expect the same violent thugs gathering at polling sites in closely contested precincts simply to intimidate Trump voters and keep them from voting. They've done it before and gotten away with it, so we can certainly expect them to do it again this November.

[Bubba Gump Shrimp]

“I’ve talked to absolutely no one who would vote for Hillary and I talk to people everywhere I go. BTW, I live in a Liberal state.”
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She can depend on the teachers union and dead vote for sure, and the gub’mint workers vote, be it muni, state or fed.

Plus, you can’t poll the voting machines, I fear they are going to spit out an extra 10% for the D’s.

The DOJ will then blame Russia for it if they are caught.

[ExTexasRedhead]

News flash, the American people are wise to their fraud and the mood out there is not good. Wanna talk about pissed off Americans? The simmer out there is close to boiling would be my guess.

[IrishBrigade]

I’ve been pretty quiet about politics in general this campaign, mostly because some people, who are normally good and decent people have completely lost their minds when it comes to Trump. I think it shows how much of a herd mentality there is, and how social media can affect the way people act.

I was going to post my feelings on this matter, except you went and posted them before me...

[relentlessly]

So, has anyone posting here been surveyed by pollsters?

I often wonder who they are calling, when they call (time of day), etc. Seems like they may be missing the Huge pissed off voter group.

[stephenjohnbanker]

“News flash, the American people are wise to their fraud and the mood out there is not good. Wanna talk about pissed off Americans? The simmer out there is close to boiling would be my guess.”

There will be vote monitors everywhere.

[pfflier]

I was hoping for it but after yesterday's Arizona primary results, I don't believe it.

There was a golden opportunity for the "hidden Trump voters" to kick out mccain and nothing like that materialized.

I have to assume now, that will be true nationally too.

[AngelesCrestHighway]

Silent Trump support that pollsters are missing...? LMAO!!!!!

[Buckeye McFrog]

There’s a downside to all of your open harassment and intimidation, Dems.

[BigEdLB]

No the opposite...

[Seattle Conservative]

I was at the rally last night in Everett. YUGE crowd that was very excited and LOUD! Met folks from around the Seattle metro area but also that had driven from other parts of the state: Walla Walla, Anacortes, Chehalis, etc.

[usafa92]

I think you underestimate just how successful Kelli Ward was. While she did not win, she received 37% of the vote against an incumbent US Senator who also happened to be his party’s nominee for the 2008 election. That’s pretty impressive. Until 2010, McCain had never been primaried, now he has been twice and Kelli did the best she could and better than JD. There are a lot of military retirees in AZ and like it or not, McCain still garners a lot of respect, deserved or not. Stop being so negative.

[Voluntaryist]

I agree completely! She actually got 39.21% :)

[Jaded]

Maybe not. I was talking to friend who is a public school teacher. She and her husband plan on voting for Trump. She was commenting on not a lot of people admitting they are voting for Trump or against Hillary for fear liberal tantrums. She thinks there will be a Trump landslide from the silent majority.

[pfflier]

I hope you're right. My wife and I voted for Ward hoping we were part of a tsunami. Our hopes were partially based on a perceived groundswell to get rid of RINO incumbants.

It didn't happen here in Arizona and it didn't happen in Wisconsin. That is not being negative it is being pragmatic.