Is There Silent Trump Support That Pollsters Are Missing? (Rasmussen confirms possible monster vote)

Some have suggested that Donald Trump has hidden support among voters who are unwilling to say publicly where they stand because they’re fearful of criticism. We won’t know for sure until Election Day, but Republicans are clearly more reluctant than Democrats this year to say how they are going to vote.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 17% of Likely Republican Voters are less likely this year to let others know how they intend to vote compared to previous presidential campaigns. Just 10% of Likely Democratic Voters say they are less likely to tell.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 25% say they are less likely this year to say publicly which presidential candidate they will vote. Unaffiliateds have leaned in Trump’s direction in recent weeks in our White House Watch survey but also have been the biggest supporters of Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton and Trump have been running nearly even in our surveys for weeks. When either of them takes a lead, it’s generally been within our +/- 3 percentage point margin of error.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Democrats say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote this year, compared to 46% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Democrats, 32% of Republicans and 38% of unaffiliateds feel about the same when it comes to declaring their vote publicly as they have in past presidential election cycles.

The reluctance among GOP voters to speak out also may be due in part to the divisive primary battle that led to Trump’s nomination, with many establishment Republicans publicly rejecting the party’s chosen nominee. Sixty-six percent (66%) of Republicans believe that most top GOP leaders do not want Trump to be elected president of the United States. But only 27% of Republicans now believe the political attitudes of the party’s voters match up with those of party leaders.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 25 and 28, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

[Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.]

Most major media outlets have been strongly critical of many of Trump’s comments and positions. Voters continue to strongly believe that the media is more interested in controversy than in the issues when it comes to the presidential race. Among voters who support Trump, 76% think the media is blowing up his comments out of proportion. But 80% of Clinton supporters say Trump is careless with his comments.

Fifty percent (50%) of all voters think most reporters will try to help Clinton with their coverage, while only 11% believe they’ll try to help Trump.

Voters under 40 are more likely than their elders to be holding back their Election Day choice. This is a potential area of worry for Clinton since younger voters are essential to her win.

A plurality (47%) of blacks say they are just as likely this year as any other year to say publicly how they are going to vote. Whites and other minority voters are more likely to let others know.

Twenty percent (20%) of both conservative and moderate voters are less likely to reveal their choice for president this year. Only 10% of liberals say the same.

A majority of voters believe the media, not the candidates, are setting the agenda this presidential election cycle.

Despite heavy criticism by Clinton and by the media, Trump’s recently announced plans for restricting immigration from terrorist countries and for ending U.S. nation-building efforts in the Middle East are supported by most voters.

After initially supporting the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Clinton under pressure from primary rival Bernie Sanders came out against the new trade deal endorsed by President Obama. Trump has long been critical of the TPP, NAFTA and other major free trade agreements, saying they have hurt the economy and taken away U.S. jobs. Voters are not big fans of these free trade deals, and Trump is hoping to peel away younger Sanders supporters from Clinton’s camp.

Generally speaking, when it comes to national security, the economy and other major issues, voters expect Clinton to continue Obama's policies and Trump to change them, for better or worse.

The economy remains the number one issue for all voters this election cycle, but Republicans are a lot more worried about national security than Democrats and unaffiliated voters are.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

FYI

Frankly, I had not heard/read all that much about this meeting. So, when I read this, I did a quick search and came up with the standard coverage (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/06/21/trump-to-meet-with-concerned-evangelical-leaders-in-nyc.html), which included negative comments from The Federalist (”Trump reduced Christianity to mandatory Sunday School attendance”) and others. I’m glad that a friend sent me this account, ostensibly from one of the attendees - gives a meaningful summary of what really happened back in July . . . & the importance of the Christian vote . . .
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Trump Met With Evangelical Leaders. This was a fascinating day in July in New York City as over 1,000 Christian leaders from all over the U.S. gathered to ask Donald Trump tough, specific questions about his policy and intentions should he be elected.

A screening committee, scouring the Internet, sent out invitations to about 1000 Christian leaders. Each person who accepted the invitation then had to be vetted, and ultimately ok’ed by the Secret Service. Once cleared, you were notified by phone. I got two sets of phone questions about my work with Compass and when finally approved, had 10 days to make plans. (I’m sure I was. at the end of the list!!)
But despite receiving the late notices, the response to attend was off-the-charts. Almost everyone they invited accepted the invitation. And some who were left off the original list apparently lobbied for inclusion.

Ultimately there were over 1,000 who hastily changed their schedules to attend. [’Editor:’ the MSM said ‘about 200 . . .’]

The security was tight for the 7 AM opening for registrants. I stood in long lines for an hour, passing through three check points before finally getting through Secret Service security. Once I finally got to my seat at my table I was astonished to be sitting next to a sharp-as-a tack Auburn grad who is married to another Auburn grad and lives in Vestavia, Alabama where I grew up. She’s a registered lobbyist who worked for George Bush (W) when she first got out of Auburn. War Eagle to that one!

Also at my table was a Congressional candidate from North Carolina, a Christian TV station owner from Florida and the Chairman of the Board of the Washington Times. There were about four past Steeling conference speakers in the room, that I noticed. Probably more I didn’t see.

After opening remarks by the conference organizers, Jerry Falwell Jr. spoke, then Franklin Graham. Both attested to the authenticity of Donald Trump. George Barna, the polling guy, spoke. Using several charts he showed that Trump has a genuine path to victory if Christians vote. But in the last Presidential election, some 40 million evangelicals stayed home and that was literally The difference in the election.

Then Ben Carson spoke for about 20 minutes. His easy and soft-spoken style easily warmed the crowd. He referred to the fact that Trump had a bad three weeks, and Clinton had a good three weeks and yet the race is still close, virtually tied. But his main point was that Trump is a proven leader. He’s certainly not a politician who’s always worried about offending someone. And that’s what we need, a leader, not a politician.
Next came Huckabee, who moderated the discussion between the crowd and Trump. Before introducing Trump, he made the point that we’re not voting on a pastor or a Pope, but rather a leader. A leader who is quite different from the past in. order to change things from the status quo.
So the day was set that this was not about Trump’s Christian knowledge or virtues, but rather where Trump wants to take the country. And where we’re headed if Trump is not elected.The biggest concern centered around the Supreme Court. The next President will appoint anywhere from one to five members. The Second Amendment, freedom of religion, prayer in public places, etc.will likely be settled by the next President’s appointees. When Donald Trump was introduced, he didn’t speak from the podium but rather sat next to Huckabee on the stage fielding questions from the crowd for about 90 minutes. So much for. the 30 minutes originally allotted. There was no press allowed inside, so it was. just Trump and the Christian leaders talking back and forth.
The really big Christian leader names got to directly ask Trump questions from the floor i.e. people like James Dobson, Ralph Reed, Tony.Evans, etc. Most felt religious liberty was at stake with this election, saying that if the policies Obama has set in place are allowed to continue, Christians will eventually have no freedom to worship. Harassment of Christian organizations would continue. Through it all, Trump answered each of their questions with solid answers, both acknowledging the problem cited and how he would take care of the problem. He seemed to be genuinely concerned about changing the direction of the nation. He addressed many subjects including the Supreme Court, national defense, border problems, Christian persecution, his pro-life stance, Israel, healthcare, education. and energy.
I would say that most of those who attended who were not sure if they would vote for him, left knowing how much is at stake in this election if Trump is not elected.

After Trump left, to a standing ovation, more questions were taken from the audience addressed to a panel of Christian leaders. Things like the weakening of the military, Christian business rights, etc. were discussed at length.

I have to say, we pretty much all came away thinking that if Clinton, or any Democrat, is elected, the path this nation is currently on will continue and WILL lead to disaster. If we don’t turn the ship now, we’re headed to be like socialized Europe, religion pushed out of everyday life and a financial disaster getting worse by the month.

Even reaching problems like what’s going on in Venezuela, where they are currently literally fighting for food, is not out of the realm of possibilities. It’s that bad.

Don’t think it can’t happen here.

At the end of the day was prayer. With few exceptions, the entire room knelt on the floor in corporate prayer for our nation. I took the opportunity to take a quick picture of that sight, some 1000 people in their Sunday clothes on the ground praying together. Who knows where this will lead. Maybe ….

So, the bottom line for me is that I love this country and our Constitution more than I dislike Trump’s antics and ego. He will attempt to change the direction that Godless liberals and their propaganda-media have led this nation. With Trump we have a chance.

With Clinton we have no chance. Be thankful we still have a chance and VOTE this fall.
Please pass this on. The future of our country in general and our religious liberty in particular depend on every Christian being registered to vote, AND going out to vote on election day . . . .

And we know that for those who love God all things work together for good, for those who are called according to his purpose. (Rom 8:28)

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