The Blair Witch Project had a production budget of $60,000.00 had an initial limited release in 27 theaters and made $1,512,054. for that weekend 7/16/1999.
Then the movie had a wide release and made $29,207,381
for that weekend. 7/30/1999.
Blair Witch was the most successful indie movie in history, and still has the great ROI in cinema history. It’s a bit of an outlier.
Much better comparison would be Hands of Stone, also released at 800 theaters Friday, $1.7M revenue. Or the Atlas Shrugged series:
300 theaters $1.6M
100 $1.7M
250 $450K
The fact is any movie that doubles its budget in the first weekend is successful. Doesn’t matter if that budget is $1.5M, $20M or $200M, if you double it in 3 days you’re successful.